posted
OK, The word from Rich is that the most common thing to happen when two low pressure cyclonic storms collide is that they dissipate. It's possible that they could merge and form a low pressure band but that band of storms would most commonly be far less energetic than the original storms.
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I hear that the best way to get messages through in a disaster is text messaging. If you send a text message, it will enter the queu and be send as soon as band width is available. Its far more efficient that dialing over and over until you manage to get through.
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Tropical Storm alpha has now weakened to a trough and will no longer be tracked. Thus ends this short lived, weak, but record breaking tropical cyclone.
Now we can ask, will we have a beta this season?
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We are OK here in the Orlando area, it was a high wind day and a bit chilly, and we got lots of rain last night, but no major problems. Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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So if you zoom out one step on this map centered on Latitude26.4766North/Longitude80.8375West, HurricaneWilma path went fairly close to a straight line from the tip of the island south of Marco on the southwest coast of what is visible on the map, through the red star, through PalmBeachGardens on the northeast coast of what is visible on the map.
Hurricane force winds -- those exceeding 64knots/74mph/119kph -- extended out about 100miles/161kilometres on either side of that line; though winds were stronger south of the centerline, and weaker north of the line. The nearer to the centerline, the stronger the wind; with eyewall winds from up to 125mph/201kph at landfall on Florida's west coast to 105mph/169kph as Wilma left Florida's east coast.
Tropical force winds -- those from 34knots/39 mph/63 kph thru 63knots/73mph/118kph -- extended outward up to 260miles/418kilometres from Wilma's centerline of travel.
I just spent some time reading some of the regional papers that cover CancĆŗn and the state of Quintana Roo. The areas are only just starting to get electricity and communications back, so we will hopefully start to hear more about their status.
The reports I've seen so far indicate that damages on Cozumel are not as severe as expected, but other areas are worse. As far as I can tell, only two deaths have been reported, although I expect that there have probably been a few more than that. Also, the tourist areas took the brunt of the damage, which is one of the reasons why's there's little information about non-tourist areas.
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Ah crap, another hurricane?! Is mother nature on crack this year, or is she just pissed off at the South East?
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Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months, four of the nine have occurred within the past 14months, and six of the nine have occurred since 1998. So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population.
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Risuena, which papers are you reading? Because I'm finding zilch about Cozumel beyond that the pier got reduced to car-sized rubble strewn about, and virtually nothing about the Yucatan beyond dribbles about the two major resort cities.
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Glancing through them again today, still no electricity in Cozumel or Isla Mujeres, but some stores are reopening and boat service has restarted to the mainland, so both islands should be starting to get food now. The papers are reporting that reconstruction efforts are starting today and Cancun will supposedly be fine in two months (I almost believe that since the tourist areas were most affected and Mexico's going to want to repair them as soon as possible to get all the tourism money again).
Although I don't see any articles saying this today, yesterday the ones about Cozumel basically said that although every building on the island was affected by Wilma, it was mostly broken windows and cosmetic damage, not structural. They may be revising that now that they've had more time to evaluate. Cozumel has also reported no deaths, although the overall numbers have increased a bit for the rest of the affected areas.
Additionally, the papers are also showing Havana, Cuba and the flooding that's occured there since Wilma passed over.
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quote: Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months
And aspectre -- just what year did "measurements begin" in that way? I mean where they were able to measure things like 882 mb? I'm just curious how big a span of the century we are talking - because they have much more sophisticated instruments now than they did, say, around the turn of the century.
quote: So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population
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DarkKnight, I can't help but notice that not one of the articles you link comes from a respected, reviewed, scientific publication. If you were to look at those sources, you would find the opposite answer.
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Actually, Farmgirl, that's a rather good question. First, there really hasn't been a major improvement on weather barometers since 1843 when the first commericial-grade bellows-type aneroid barometer was prototyped. Any increase in sophistication since then -- eg electronic barometers, barometers with radio transceivers, etc -- have been more for cosmetics, sturdiness, portability, ease of use, and remote access than for increased accuracy.
Naturally since folks back then didn't live&work in climate-controlled buildings and couldn't just flip on the radio for a weather report, spending money on a device which could give hint to future weather was an extremely popular choice. Especially for those in charge of farms and maritime work. So the USNationalWeatherService maintains barometric records of hurricanes all the way back to 1851.
You may notice that the intensity ranking in the first NationalHurricaneCenter link is for hurricanes making landfall in the US. What you may not know is that the main financial impetus for establishing national weather services in maritime nations -- especially GreatBritain and the US -- was to provide weather information to their navies and the maritime industry. A farmer pretty much hasta take weather as it comes. A sailor can sail around it; or sail into it, should the winds and currents be favorable. So it was very important for the navies and the maritime trade to know weather conditions out at sea. As mutual assistance to provide needed information to each other, copies of ships' weather logs were routinely turned over to the local national weather service when ships made harbor.
Thus there was a rather large and statisticly significant data base of barometric pressures recorded by ships caught out at sea. Not quite random enough though, what with the strong bias toward reporting lower intensity hurricanes because ships with the bad luck of sailing through the strongest hurricanes were often sunk. And until the advent of automatic recording devices, sailors were often too busy working to stay alive to be able to spend time paying attention to the barometer.
In other words, there are tons of records of nearly (due to the sinkings) random ship encounters with hurricanes since 1851.* At least until a bit after 1900, when the navies' and shippers' need for weather news made them amongst the very first to adopt radio after its invention. What is good news for sailors -- the majority of ships being able to sail around the worst parts of storms after reports of first encounters by the unlucky few -- is bad news for data collection. The 1912 sinking of the Titanic caused the maritime industry to make radios mandatory on all large ships -- ie those most likely to survive hurricanes -- further detracting from the randomness of hurricane barometric sampling. The 1937 sinking of the ?Alcon? extended that maritime legal mandate to all ships, so even fewer ships were likely to cross paths with the eye of a hurricane.
WWII brought radar and, after the war, even greater ease in hurricane avoidance for ships. However, it also brought extremely sturdy aircraft built to survive intense wingloading during combat maneuvering and over-pressures generated by anti-aircraft fire through multiple redundancy of key components in case of failure of structural members. And hot shot pilots with the nerve to fly them into hurricanes. So shortly after the war, the HurricaneHunters began flying for the NationalWeatherService, with their coverage of hurricanes at sea limited only by their fuel supply and suitable airports for takeoff and landing. And the USNavy has weather aircraft on their carriers; with their reports also being consolidated into the NationalWeatherService's database.
Hence my best estimate is that there exists an extremely strong hurricane database for analysis of the past 50years, perhaps a couple or so less, with less complete and thus less statisticly trustable data on hurricanes at sea for 154years.
* Whether they have been properly collated&archived for study Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. I do know that UK climatologists seeking clues to past climate conditions have recently been delving into those old ships' logs for information regarding past weather.
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Thank you, Risuena, I'll have to give those sites a looksee.
Apparently, DarkKnight, I made the same mistake with my reply this time that Rabbit objected to on another posting earlier within this thread: failure to provide enough emphasis. In this case, I should have italicized "So it may well be that MotherEarth..." to indicate less than surety inregard to the GlobalWarming theory's applicability to the HurricaneIntensification hypothesis. But then if I meant to indicate full confidence rather than a "hrrrm... this is interesting" in reply to AltƔriƫl of Dorthonion, my statement would have started "MotherEarth is..."
On the other hand, Rabbit has good reason to mention that your links should be taken with a large grain of salt. Science reporting in general interest magazines/newspapers/television/etc is far too often misleading or just flat-out wrong. Enough so that I wonder whether the reporters --and the editors who watch over those reporters -- have even an inkling of interest in the sciences.
Though in the case of reporting on GlobalWarming, it could just be the media's desire to generate enough revenue to keep the news operation running and the media's attitude of "bend over backwards to be even-handed" as counter to charges of liberal bias running roughshod over reporting the facts. I mean let's face it, most advertisers are selling junk that no one in their right mind would purchase, junk that produces a lot of energy waste and lots of unnecessary pollution. And most customers are buying that junk because they've been convinced through the media that being wasteful is status enhancing. So every "liberal" media report on GlobalWarming hasta be "balanced" with caveats from professional liars to give customers an excuse to continue buying junk; lest advertisers pull their ad dollars and/or customers cancel their subscriptions to show their displeasure with exposure to facts which demonstrate that over-indulging their desires is immoral.
And yes, the BBC does have political pressures which cause their editors to bend over backward by repeatedly soliciting the same ol' antiGlobalWarming quotes from the same ol' weather forecaster who sells his services to energy firms as the "balance" against the general scientific consensus.
posted
Incidentally, DarkKnight, your links are interesting enough for you to post as a topic for discussion on a thread of its own. And should you do so, coherent enough to make it worth my time to correct the disinformation within those links.
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If anyone was wondering, my in-laws are fine. They lost about half the shingles on their roof, and, wonder of wonders, they had gone to a shelter.
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Always good to hear, Boon, that Hatrackers and their relatives and friends are doing well. Especially after being held in suspense. Guess the BigBadWolf's huffing and puffing convinced your in-laws to move to the solid brick house.
* Last NHC advisory at 5pmEDT yesterday ** GOES-East geosynchronous satellite photograph of the northern half of the hemisphere; with the USWestCoast nearing the western horizon, and the western edges of WesternEurope appearing on the extreme eastern horizon. *** Last NHC 3day path projection **** Click to enlarge the polar projection, then scroll to the left bottom of map. Follow the curved ring/latitude line just north of Canada's Newfoundland through the Atlantic to the EnglishChannel then France.
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Hi all, This is the first time I've been able to get to a wireless hot spot. Finally the Starbuck's near me has power. (almost nothing else does.) I still have no power at home and there is a 3 hour (at least) wait for the laundrymat I found that is on a generator. My clothes are filthy but I really don't want to wait 3 hours. sigh. I am rapidly running out of gas for my car but the waits at the gas stations are getting shorter, thank goodness. The store I work at still has no power so I've been sent to another in the area that does, so at least I'm getting paid now. My patio is demolished. It's actually quite remarkable. The whole roofed, screened in area caved in and I had scrap metal on my house roof. It took a little of my real roof with it when it went. Added complaint : Ice cold showers suck! But at least I have running water now. /end complaining Good news- I am ok and everyone I love survived fine as well, though none of us has power yet. (this is Sunday, 1 week later ..guess I still had a complaint left in me) Power company is doing all they can but there are 3 concrete power poles down on my grid so it will be a while. They said maybe till November 22. BUT I'M OK! I won't be around for a while but I miss you all and will be back soon.
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Sorry you're without power, but as you said, you're okay. That's what counts. Do you have a gas or electric stove?
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Oh my goodness! I'm glad you're okay, but so sorry about all the other crap. No power 'til November 22nd? That's awful! I hope that was a worst-case estimate and they get it on much sooner. Good luck!
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Good to hear from you, Treason. Still love Florida, hurricanes and all? And good to hear that things are at least starting to return to normal for your area, even though you're obviously having to rough it a bit. Cold showers and no power until Thanksgiving? ...bbbbbbrrrrrr... Just keep in mind, "I will survive"
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Yay! Thanks guys. I had horrible visions of coming back to Starbuck's today and seeing nobody posted here. I would have felt so abandoned. Thanks for the encouragement! It will get better, eventually. Noemon, I have an electric stove. I've been using the grill on the (non-existant) patio for beans and spaghettio's and such. Thankfully, some of the restaurants are open now so my boyfriend has been bringing home take-out every night. aspectre, I never did love Florida. Bah, heat all the time and hurricanes and 1 week of "winter". Pooh on Florida. Thanks again Noemon, ElJay and aspectre!
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posted
By the way, how did all the other Floridians fare? Ela lives here too, right? I know there are others. Post here if you can and I'll check next time I get to a Starbucks. Hope everyone is fine!
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posted
Man, not having a stove for a month would be rough--I feel for you. I expect that supplies are limited right now, but you might try to get your hands on a camping stove. A solar powered oven would probably be better for you than gas, since I expect that getting your hands on gas cannisters will be tricky.
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Ohhh, I didn't even know they had solar powered ovens. (For outside, yes? Without buying a solar panel for my roof?) That sounds cool. I'll look into it. Thanks!
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Boon
unregistered
posted
You can build one yourself with some cardboard boxes, a piece of plexiglass, and some aluminum foil.
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Yep, they're just for the outside. I've been looking for reviews of different models for you, but so far I haven't had a lot of luck--I've only found one. Here it is. Doesn't sound like an ideal solution, but in a hot sunny area like you're in it should perform better than it did for the reviewer, I'd think.
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Here is an inexpensive solar cooker. Looks like a grill or something, but there isn't any real description of it, so it's hard to say.
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Boon beat me to it--I was just about to tell you that after doing some digging, I thought that you might as well just build your own. It'll be cheaper, and you'll have it more quickly than if you had to wait for it to be shipped.
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Wow. Thanks guys! I'll have my boyfriend (the "I can build that" guy) see if he can build one. Neat!
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As Adam and JaneX reported, we didn't have power immediately after the storm. It went out about 5 or 6 am. The storm also knocked out our phone, though we discovered late Monday afternoon that the line we normally use for our computer dial-up worked. No one knows that number, except the few people we called to give it to when we discovered it worked, so we got very few calls last week. It's also not listed in our name, but in the name of someone who had it over 5 years ago. My husband once called the phone company to correct the error, but gave up after being kept on hold for over an hour - after all, we only use it for the computer, right?
We were surprised when the power came back on Tuesday night after the storm, at midnight. But the AC started making a terrible noise (at first I thought it was someone's generator) and my husband got up and turned it off. We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V. This meant that some lights and the refrigerators worked, but the AC, stove, washing machine and dishwasher did not, some of the lights were dimmed, and some of the outlets only had half power. My husband went around with a lamp to test which outlets had full power, and then ran an extension cord from my daughter's room to my son's computer, so he could finish working on his college application.
I ended up having to bail out the dishwasher with a turkey baster after my husband tried to run it - it filled up with water but wouldn't run.
We had a lot of big tree branches knocked down all around the house, but, fortunately, no damage at all to the house. My husband (with a little help from me) spent Thursday cutting and cleaning up many of the large tree branches that fell in front of our house. After unsuccessfully trying to obtain a chain saw (ha!) he unwrapped a very large brand-new hand saw, which had come from his dad's hardware store when they closed it many years ago, and used that. He has spent several more days cleaning the debris off the roof, and in the back yard, and still isn't finished. We will still need to get a professional to prune broken branches off all our trees - which will be a very expensive proposition.
On the Friday after the storm, as I was trying to figure out how to cook the Sabbath meal in a microwave, the power company came and turned off our power again, leaving me with half-cooked pasta and cold (but, fortunately, cooked) chicken. Turns out there was a live wire in the palm tree across the street.
Two days later, on Sunday night, we got back our partial power, and on Monday a week ago we got full power. Seems like each utility guy was a "one-trick" pony. One came to turn off the power, but he couldn't fix the downed line. Next guy came and cut away the loose line so he could turn on partial power, and so forth. Each time the whole neighborhood came out to watch and asked "how come" whoever was there couldn't do the whole job at once.
I spent all day Tuesday doing laundry. I never thought I would be so happy to be able to clean and do laundry. And take a hot shower. We were pretty fortunate that the weather was a pleasant temperature the whole time our AC was off.
The phone was fixed Wednesday night, and I could finally get back online without worrying that I was tying up the phone line. I did have some competition from the rest of the family, though.
Shlomo's school reopened last Thursday. I've been pretty busy since then trying to catch up with tasks that I couldn't do with no power.
And that's the abbreviated story of what happened to us in Hurricane Wilma.
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quote:We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V
If I understand correctly, in the US, even in Florida, power comes to your house at 110 V. 220 V outlets have two 110 volt lines.
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quote:We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V
If I understand correctly, in the US, even in Florida, power comes to your house at 110 V. 220 V outlets have two 110 volt lines.
Yes, and one of the electrical lines serving our house and 6 other houses between here and the corner of our street was severed and dangling in the palm tree across the street after the storm came through. So we only had half the amount of power we should normally have been getting to the house.
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit: Oh, and Ela its good to have you back in one piece.
posted
Yes, most residential power feeds are 220V, with a grounded center leg. So you have ground, +110V, and -110V on your three legs. Normal lights, outlets, and other 110V feeds are distributed roughly half and half on these two legs (from ground to one leg or the other), while dryers, air conditioners, and other 220V feeds go directly from the +110V to the -110V legs.
If something happens to one leg, like a short to ground or an open circuit, you are left with half the plugs and lights in your building out, a confusing situation. Any motors that run long on half power will burn up if not protected, so it's very smart to turn off the AC or any appliances that have a funny looking (220V) plug, even if they are still halfway working.
Ela, I'm glad your power is back on now. It's great to be able to be clean, isn't it? Every time I lose power, I realize that I don't appreciate it enough during regular times. I think the worst part of being a homeless person for me would be not being able to bathe every day.
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quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: YEla, I'm glad your power is back on now. It's great to be able to be clean, isn't it? Every time I lose power, I realize that I don't appreciate it enough during regular times. I think the worst part of being a homeless person for me would be not being able to bathe every day.
Yeah, I definitely missed hot baths.
Even not being able to wash dishes in hot water felt somehow less clean to me. And I was calculating how long it would be before I would have to brave a laudromat, along with all the other Floridians who had no power in their homes.
And thanks for the great explanation.
We are fortunate that our loss of electricity was for a relatively short time. Some still haven't gotten their power restored.
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posted
Sorry, Farmgirl, I generated a bit of disinformation earlier. KerryEmanuel has stated: ...we have only been measuring the intensity of storms over the open ocean thoroughly and accurately for about 35 years, so in such a short record, record-breaking events are not that unusual and should not, by themselves, be cause for undue concern.
Which matches the 35year database of the researchers who wrote the paper supporting the HurricaneIntensification hypothesis arising from GlobalWarmingTheory.
My guess as to the cause for that difference from my earlier estimate of a ~50year "extremely strong hurricane database" would be that advances in miniaturization of transistorized circuitry finally allowed the common use of dropsondes to directly measure minimum barometric pressures within a hurricane. Whereas between postWWII and ~1970, I'd guess that most recorded minimum barometric pressures were estimates derived from the actual barometric measurements taken at flight altitude on the HurricaneHunter aircraft themselves. Because of better&smaller electronics, there probably was also an increased accuracy in measurements of maximum sustained windspeed due to improved aircraft position tracking and to the placement of weather-doppler radar onto the HurricaneHunters.
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For Noeman, Tatiana, and Rabbit: shoulda remembered to post this earlier, the Fujiwhara Effect. More later.
BTW: Who deleted? or what the heck happened to? the Katrina thread??? Which is what I was looking for before I became sidetracked rereading the other old hurricane threads.
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Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. ![[Cry]](graemlins/cry.gif)
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I've been using the grill on the (non-existant) patio for beans and spaghettio's and such. Thankfully, some of the restaurants are open now so my boyfriend has been bringing home take-out every night.![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
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And take a hot shower. We were pretty fortunate that the weather was a pleasant temperature the whole time our AC was off. 
