posted
The problem with that M^2, is that we may get lucky. I fwe do not vote the mafia is still picking us off one by one lowering the ratio. So the question is do we feel lucky?
Posts: 1244 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
HDD, How lucky do you feel? There are 29 players, 1 doctor and an unknown number of mafia and police. So the mafia will pick one of us off each day. That will happen until all the mafia are lynched. We should not help them by lynching innocent people or potentially usefull people like the doctor or a policeman. Again, the GOAL of the game is for the townies to out number the mafia. We should do all in our power to keep the number of townies high. Lynching someone the first day or two only, and I repeat ONLY plays into the hand of the mafia. ANYONE who votes to lynch the first day or two is mafia trying to remove more townies. There is no way to argue against this.
posted
The sherrif gets to ask about one person a day. If we wait till he/she gets a hit. It may be a while. The odds are the same. If we wait to long the mafia will increase their own odds.
But, I see the logic of waiting at least a day, to see what flushes out.
Posts: 1244 | Registered: Apr 2003
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You still have it wrong. Any lynching that does not kill a mafia helps the mafia. If the townies make the mafia do all their own killing it will take them longer.
Think about this. RANDOM LYNCHINGS ONLY HELP THE MAFIA. We, the townies, might get lucky and get one, but we might also get a police or the doctor. The we are doubly screwed. The only, and I repeat again loudly the ONLY, group that is helped by random lynchings is the mafia. In a war of attrition, where the police will eventually find a mafia, killing your own randomly is helping the mafia.
posted
I disagree, if we do nothing then the Mafia can pick us off. At least when we lynch an innocent person the odds are higher that the remaining people are Mafia. I think we have to act.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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They can pick us off one by one but it will take an incredibly long time. If we lynch random people they will win that much faster. Let the police do their job.
Think it through. Any lynching done the first three days or so with out input from the police is playing right into the hands of the mafia. They get two kills for the price of one. This is a game of attrition and killing people randomly, which is what we would be doing, only helps the mafia. Did you read the last game. There were 4-6 dead townies, 3 at the hand of the other townies before the first cop came out and identified a mafia. The mafia almost won that game becuase the townies did half their work for them. With this many people, unless there a heck of a lot of police and mafia, the chances are you will kill a townie. Killing a townie might increase the odds that someone else is mafia, but it also increases the odds that two townies will die in one turn versus one. The ratio is better for us townies if only one of us dies a turn.
posted
But if the citizens had just done nothing they probably would have taken out themsleves anyways but later. Unfortunately we are probably going to end up killing innocents either way but at least we can take Mafia down. The odds will definitely grow in the Mafia's favor from what you are proposing but in the long run it will definitely turn in our favor if we vote from the beginning all the more so with more players.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
I think you are wrong. The first three turns the townies need to sit tight and let the police do their jobs. Voting only helps the mafia. Our chances of getting a mafia are slim.
Ok there are 29 players. Lets say that there are 5 mafia and 5 police and 1 doctor. That leaves 18 townies. Now the mafia make their first kill. Now there are 28 people, 17 townies. That means a 17% chance of getting a mafia and a 60.7% of killing a townie, 17% chance of killing a police and 3.5% chance of killing the doctor, for a total of 17% vs. 83%. Those are terrible odds. Now if you kill a townies, which is probable then the ratio of mafia to townies goes up from 5/18 at the start of the game to 5/16, or 27.7% to 31.3%. Now the next round the mafia make their kill. Now there are 26 people left. Your chance of getting a mafia has only gone up from 17% to 19%. If you take out another citizen we are down to 25 people and 14 townies. We are up to a mafia to townie ration of 5/14 or 35.7% We have bumped the chance of finding a mafia by 2% but they have bumped their chance of winning the game by 4%.
posted
Eh, not much happened. Mostly we just decided that we were kind of ahead of ourselves, since the game hasn't even technically started yet. Just too excited for it to start I guess.
As for this whole wait to vote thing, it seems to me like trying to cheat the system, but if jeniwren is ok with it, it might work... Posts: 1635 | Registered: Aug 2002
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posted
What is required for someone to be lynched though? If just one person votes would the votee be lynched? If so then couldn't a Mafia just vote and then they would be able to get two in a turn without risk to themselves.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
But if no one is lynched, we get no wonderful jeniwren narrative of the injustice being performed!:whiney smilie:
Posts: 1843 | Registered: Aug 2003
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posted
For what it's worth, I agree with m2. The odds of us randomly managing to kill a mafioso are too small.
As for HDD and nfl, who are both trying to justify random votes . . . *eyes them both squintily*
quote: What is required for someone to be lynched though? If just one person votes would the votee be lynched? If so then couldn't a Mafia just vote and then they would be able to get two in a turn without risk to themselves.
Yes, yes, and no -- definite risk to the mafioso who votes. We lynch them the next day.
My suggestion to all players: IF YOU ARE NOT MAFIA, LYNCH NO ONE THE FIRST DAY (or two, or three) unless you can make a STRONG argument for doing so. Feel free to ignore this -- we'll just figure you ARE mafia and act accordingly. Posts: 32919 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
Damien, I think Happy Camper was dropping out, so there should be an opening. If you email jeniwren, maybe you can work something out. Posts: 233 | Registered: Sep 2003
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I don't know what I'll do with a total abstension to voting. Bear in mind that MY role is to keep the game interesting. So if one side jeopardizes that by making it extremely lopsided, I'd probably have to do something.
Posts: 5948 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
I just don't feel comfortable not voting. There's trying to win and have fun and there's just trying to win. Again I won't make myself the lone voter despite my feelings.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
I just want the game to fun. If the majority of people here think its more fun not to vote than I won't.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
:ooc: How can it be FUN to NOT vote? Come'on folks, I've played this game many times, both as a townie and mafia. It definitely is NOT fun to be left on either side and have people around who don't know how/want to play. Vote, let's get those deadbeats outta here. Wether we win or loose to the Mafia, we stil had fun.
Posts: 2102 | Registered: Dec 2000
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posted
I am willing to bend to M^2's logic for now. But I still think that waiting too long to lynch is also playing into the hands of the mafia, but I did not play the last game. For now I will abstain from voting.
Posts: 1244 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
So if we vote, we risk lynching a townie (obviously) and if we don't vote we risk unknown sanctions from our moderator? would that be the certain death of a random townie?!?!
When I first read the rules, I thought it was 4 mafia and 4 police, but we don't know that, right?
Posts: 3956 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
celia, last time we had 5 mafia and two police; with so many players I'd expect more.
Actually, the more I think about it the more I am tempted to not vote just to see what jeniwren has up her sleeve. Of course, as one of the agitators, that makes me a likely target of whatever she comes up with . . . Posts: 32919 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
I vote to vote because of the fun factor and the punishment factor and the playing in to the Mafia factor.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Um, y'know, I've rethought this. And yeah, the whole let's-vote-cuz-it's-more-fun thing -- I see your point.
Posts: 32919 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
Actually the more I think about it it would be interesting to see what jenniwren comes up with. Is it possible a "natural disaster" could take out Mafia as well?
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
How about the Godfather? Some one the police can not find out about? The Godfather, for the most part, can only be found by random killing of people.
It is just something you don't want to do in the first few rounds.
posted
Yes but then we assume that person is Mafia and lynch 'em next time around. So it could very well be that the Mafia is manipulating us to not vote or we're living in a dictatorship.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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If one person votes then who ever that person voted for gets lynched. It would also make the person who voted suspect as the mafia.
If all the townies agree not to lynch, then the mafia can not gang up on one person and get that townie lynched. While the other townies spread their vote around, the mafia can concentrate their vote and make sure that one of them do not get lynched by accident. Any townie they get to vote with them just helps hide their complicity.
The townies limit the mafia by making them do all the work in the back ground.
posted
Round one, no townie is supposed to vote. If you vote then you are suspect as mafia. If some one votes then they are either mafia or stupid, and I don't want any stupid townies. Either way, if some one votes then they get lynched the next turn.
Remember, when we vote to lynch there is a very good chance that most of the mafia will vote for the same person, to make sure that someone who is not mafia gets lynched. They will try and get other townies to agree with them to cover their tracks.
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Of course, as one of the agitators, that makes me a likely target of whatever she comes up with . . . ![[Angst]](graemlins/angst.gif)
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