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This thread is inspired by comments in another thread about re-arranging one's schedule to accomodate an interesting new show. My first thought was "Why not just record it?", but I thought maybe they didn't have a DVR. Later this same person said that the show was no longer interesting enough to watch "live" so he was recording it to watch whenever. I thought this was strange. Since I've gotten a DVR I don't think I've watched even a minute of "live" TV. In the beginning I used to watch TV on a 20 minute delay so I could skip commercials. It was a great time saver (not that I've made non-TV use of the saved time. I just get to watch more TV in the same time slot. ) Now, though, I've gotten to the point that I don't feel the need to see anything live, or usually even the same night it was broadcast. In fact, most of the serial TV I've watched lately has been from DVD, and I actually prefer it that way. (I love Netflix!!!)
I realize that I'm a little bit of a gadget junkie, and I like to make use of new innovative technology, so I'm probably a bit ahead of the curve in changing my TV habits. However, almost all of my co-workers do the same thing now. So I have to believe this is a trend that will eventually make it so TV will have to change in some fundamental ways. My question is "What ways?", and "When?".
Issue #1: Networks engage in "timeslot wars", battling to capture the largest share of viewers in a given timeslot. This is mainly so they can charge the most for advertising for that slot, increasing revenues. DVRs will make "timeslot wars" less critical. Good shows that languish in bad slots might still get a relatively large viewership, but how will the networks know?
Issue #2: Commercials pay for network TV, and much of cable TV. DVRs make it so that you can skip commercials. Will the future bring a situation where all TV is pay TV? If DVRs become as ubiquitous as TVs (and there's no reason to believe they wont), will there remain a large enough audience to support commercial advertising? How will TV advertising change?
Issue #3: With almost everything that lasts a full season or more going to DVD box sets by the next Christmas, many people (like me) spend TV time catching up on interesting shows from the past. I just finished disk 5 of season 4 of Smallville on DVD having never seen a single episode on live TV. Sure I'll have to wait for season 5 on DVD, and I'm eager for it. But I can wait because I've also got a couple of seasons of Six Feet Under, all of Nip Tuck, and the last season of The Sopranos to watch until then. Not to mention that Chris wants to go back and watch Charmed from the beginning, and we're working our way through Space 1999 (which I can't believe actually made it through 17 disks worth of episodes. It's so bad it's entertaining. ) So, if everyone takes on habits like these, how will new audiences be created for new shows? Will "pay TV" create the new shows? How will they track viewers if everyone is DVRing stuff? Will everything go straight to DVD and battle it out there?
My final question: When do you think these issues will reach critical mass? I'm guessing in the next 10 years.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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Great topic KarlEd! Issue#1: I think the tiimeslot wars will still be around for a fairly long time as the industry is slow to change their schedules. Issue #2: I think we will begin to see tons more product placement in the shows themselves and it will become a LOT more obvious (kinda like Cisco bought that spot on 24 last year) Issue #3: I think we may see something that I am going to dub the "Firefly Phenomenon". A TV show shows maybe 6-10 episodes on TV then you can buy the rest on DVD. The shows will be marketed that way and normal TV will just be reduced to all 'infomercials' Final question: Hard to say on this because change is always subtle, but 10 years is not a bad guess
Posts: 1918 | Registered: Mar 2005
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1) DVR's will start reporting who's recording what. Tivo already does this.
2) I've heard some talk about integrating ads into the Tivo bar (so they would pop up whenever you're paused or ff'ing).
3) Kids. For the next few years, at least, let's assume that most places are 0 DVR or 1 DVR households. While the parents record what they want to watch, the kids all still watch everything live. They have to, or tomorrow when everyone's talking about the OC they'll be in the dark. Social seppuku. How else would Dawson's Creek have stayed on so long? As for adult shows, I'm guessing networks will set up a deal with Tivo to have Tivo record and recommend the network's hot new shows. In other words, NBC comes out with a show that they expect to replace "Will and Grace" (say, in 3 years). How do they get people to tune in? Commercials have limited effectiveness now, so they call up the Tivo execs.
"Hey, have every Tivo record the premiere episode, and we'll pay you a percentage of however many subscribers actually watch it start to finish."
Then it's in Tivo interest to promote it once they record it.
Enhanced content is something else worth looking at. Like DVDs, I can see TV shows releasing special features straight to DVR. Gag reels, behind the scenes featurettes, and all that junk. Why would people buy the DVDs if they can watch everything on their DVR?
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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I also think we'll see lots more product placement in shows.
I watch live TV whenever we have to pause our DVDs and I have to wait for my husband to come back in the room from whatever he went to do. So I tend to watch things where I don't have to watch the whole episode. These things include Comedy Central, the Food Channel, HGTV, random reality programs (such as VH1 nostalgia and shows with nannies), and reruns of old comedies on TBS and the WB.
We also like to record our favorite shows and let them build up because we HATE cliffhangers. I'd much rather wait and watch 4 or 5 episodes at once. Our goal is to have such a nice collection that we can dig out our favorite DVDs rather than subjecting ourselves to the waste on TV.
So, I suppose that the only way to make revenue off of us is the money they get from us buying DVDs, and product placement in the television shows.
I see a lot of commercials while the DVDs are paused and I'm waiting to start it up again, though...
Posts: 2880 | Registered: Jun 2004
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Maybe commercials will become so funny and interesting that you don't want to miss them.
But I'm with Shan, of course. I just don't watch the thing. I spend my precious leisure time websurfing instead. Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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Back in the early days of product placement, they were a distraction. Now, for me at least, the opposite is the distraction. If I saw Tom Welling drinking a coke in Smallville I'd take it in stride. If I saw him drinking from a generic can or made up can, I'd either think it was part of the plot or I'd start thinking, "Brand X" soda, huh? I wonder if they're avoiding product placement, or if they just couldn't get anyone to bite.
quote:Hey, have every Tivo record the premiere episode, and we'll pay you a percentage of however many subscribers actually watch it start to finish."
Unless there was an industry move as a whole to quash the outcry, (i.e. insure that everyone was doing this so their was no alternative) this would be the deathknell of Tivo. A lot of people run at full capacity on their DVRs, or near to it. Forcing a recording would surely bump off some show that they intended to save or record. Not to mention the general backlash that would come from being basically spammed on their DVR.
On the other hand, a month before Supernatural came out, it was plastered on two billboards I drive by every day to and from work. I was eager to give it a try and have it set to record on DVR now. Unfortunately after watching a couple of episodes it hasn't made me want to bump other stuff to watch it. But it's still on my DVR awaiting my getting sufficiently bored or caught up to watch it.
What I think will happen is that shows will be increasingly advertised on non-broadcast media, like billboards, shopping cart seats, posters in malls, etc.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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I disagree. Tivo already spams me every time I update the settings. "See a preview for x movie!"
I always have some space on my Tivo for suggestions. Most of them are crap, but I kind of enjoy seeing what tivo thought I might like to watch while I was at work.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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I also agree that there has to be a paradigm shift in the way shows are produced and paid for (advertisements). We ignore all of the ad execs whining about DVR users "stealing" programming (because they skip the ads), as we should.
It seems that entertainment is often slow to follow when the paradigm shifts (CDs, VHS, online distribution), and fight the change socially and legally. We're told what to use to entertain ourselves, and how we should go about doing it. I hope that one day, we'll see a consumer backlash against this. Perhaps DVRs are the first volley of the war.
The point of the preceeding paragraph is this: we might see a decline of programming while the companies shift, because the profit margins will be slipping until the change is made.
Posts: 1069 | Registered: Feb 2005
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Christy and I Tivo everything (and I'm going to use the word Tivo even though our DVR is actually another brand). But since we have almost no time to WATCH what we've recorded, it's pretty academic.
Posts: 37449 | Registered: May 1999
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quote:Originally posted by El JT de Spang: I disagree. Tivo already spams me every time I update the settings. "See a preview for x movie!"
I always have some space on my Tivo for suggestions. Most of them are crap, but I kind of enjoy seeing what tivo thought I might like to watch while I was at work.
Eeek! Well, maybe it won't change anything for Tivo's customer base, but just knowing it already happens on a smaller scale tells me I won't be switching to Tivo anytime soon. My DVR is through Dish Network and they don't spam me at all.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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I actually think video on demand (true VOD and not the pseudo-VOD some cable companies offer now), will change things radically. For one, it might put Netflix out of business. (And Netflix is the best use of my entertainment dollars after my internet connection, right now.)
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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Blockbuster? That chain with all the disheaveled shelves and all the videos out of order? Yeah, the ones around here look like old liquor stores. But not as popular.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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The thing with VOD is that it takes a lot of bandwidth - the more movies and less wait, the more bandwidth.
Posts: 1069 | Registered: Feb 2005
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Sure, but I'm thinking in the next 10 years that won't be a problem. We already have rudimentary forms of VOD right now through cable companies and through websites like ifilms and atomfilms. Granted, neither of them is anywhere near true VOD, but both have the potential to evolve into it.
I actually expect the merging of internet and TV in the next few years. Many new TV models already are being sold as TV/Monitors with computer hookups. I envision a system that gives you TV and internet over the same cable with people buying the same monitor technology for the bedroom, family room and home office. Add wireless keyboards and mouses and you can spend your TV time and internet time wherever/whenever you want.
Are you waiting on an important email? Your TV can notify you when it comes in and you can pause and check email.
Your partner makes you pause TV while he goes to the bathroom? You bring up your browser and check out what's happening on Hatrack.
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And a lot of communities are looking at fiber optic solutions to all the bandwidth problems. Hopefully we're like 3 years away from solving that problem here in Lafayette.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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The future of DVR's is programming them from your cell phone or any internet connection. I know a couple of companies want that feature to be standard with the DVR's they are selling.
As far as the advertising problem goes, I've thought about that myself. I know Tivo does not want to be rid of commercials. I personally think that TV advertising for live stream video is going become a lot less aggressive, and funding for advertising will be fed into other markets, such as internet, movies, magazines, etc.
That, or DVR companies will be paid millions to not allow customers to fast forward through commercials. It can be done, just a special signal attached to the live stream video for the commercial, and the DVR will automatically play. Advertising is a very aggressive business.
I can pretty much garauntee that VOD services will have commercials in them eventually. I mean, they are already close to starting it now, just on a minor level.
Karl, when you say pseudo-VOD and true VOD, what are the differences you are referring to? (I work for Comcast and am just curious as to opinions and what you meant).
Posts: 9754 | Registered: Jul 2002
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To me "True VOD" would be along the following lines:
I want to watch "I Love Lucy". I pull up a menu listing all the episodes and choose what I want to see and click "Play" and can watch it right away. Immediately when it's over, I decide I want to watch an obscure art movie. I find it on the menu and click "Play", etc.
To my understanding (and I don't have Cable so I don't know how their VOD works exactly) currently you are limited to a small number of titles available on VOD and they are most likely movies that have recently left the theaters or other stuff that is popular currently.
So in short, True VOD = What I want to watch, when I want to watch it. Pseudo VOD = Here's what we have, watch it when you want. It's probably a bit of a misnomer, because from what I can read on Comcast's site, they have the Demand part down. It's the Video part I think is lacking. So the fix probably isn't depending on technology so much as it is on liscensing arragements.
Also, Comcast VOD seems a bit too much like Pay-per-View. I'm patient enough and/or proactive enough to use Netflix to have a small store of things I want to watch sitting beside the TV and almost any given moment. To woo me away from Netflix, Comcast would have to give me Netflix's library of available titles at the very least, and charge me a flat monthly rate, realizing it would likely be a little higher than Netflix's rate since I could watch several times more on demand without the mail delay.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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An example: Checking Comcast's site, under VOD they have "What's on this Month". Of the first four things they woo me with, one is a kid's show (Jimmy Timmy Power Hour) I could care less about, CSI (which I'm fine DVRing), StarWars Ep. III (Which, frankly, I'm sick of even hearing about), and Star Trek (Which I've seen more times than I care to admit)
Now, truthfully, Star Trek might be a temptation if I could watch all the episodes of the TV series in order when I wanted to. But the website is confusing. They show a photo I'm sure is from the TV series, but the caption says "In the first installment of the epic film series, Admiral Kirk's U.S.S. Enterprise intercepts an earthbound attacker that is destroying everything in its wake." That sounds like the first Star Trek Movie, not the TV series. (Which I have no interest in watching anytime soon.)
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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I think it is the movie. I saw a commercial for SCI month on Comcast on demand. Its supposed to have the Star Trek movies, and the Firefly series.
Posts: 3134 | Registered: Mar 2005
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Wouldn't that eliminate the use of TV all together KarlEd? If you can see what you want, when you want, there is no point to ever watch regular TV again. Same with buying movies, or renting them. What's the point? I can watch it whenever I want for just a monthly fee.
Edit: The bottom line is, there's no money to be made there. They lose all of their advertisements, and they lose the whole concept of TV channels completely.
Posts: 1401 | Registered: Jun 2004
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I don't know, I personally think the available things on Comcasts on Demand services have a good variety, though, admittedly, not everything can be on On Demand and there are things like Star Wars Ep 3 you have to purchase to get. I haven't exactly sat down and done a comparison, but I was under the impression that satellite services did not offer On Demand like we do.
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There's always a wait with VOD, unless you have infinite bandwidth. I think the current scheme for splitting the chunks is skyscraper, which gives a pretty small delay.
Posts: 1069 | Registered: Feb 2005
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And it definately is the movies, not the series (edit: star trek). If you are talking about series, then things like Dead Like Me, Carnivale, Sopranos have all had seasons on ON DEMAND. In fact, seasons 2 and 3 of the Sopranos are on right now.
Posts: 9754 | Registered: Jul 2002
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And if I want to watch season 1? For that matter the first thing that came to mind was Six Feet Under, and all they have is the current season (or latest one) as far as I can tell.
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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Season 1 was on Demand in December. When Jan hit, they switched to Season 2, and are now putting on Season 3. In Feb, they will put on Season 4 and take off Season 2.
Posts: 9754 | Registered: Jul 2002
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To my knowlege, satellite services don't offer VOD at all. Dish network doesn't in my area. My point, I guess, is that for current TV shows DVR works perfectly fine for me, so unless VOD offers me a large variety of movies or shows that haven't just been in the theaters or on TV, I don't see the point. (I mean really, if I have to see it ASAP I've probably already seen it in the theater and if not, I can wait for DVD.) Sure it's demanding a lot, but I want to see what I want to see, not just pick from a list of what you think I might want to see.
quote:Originally posted by Little_Doctor: Wouldn't that eliminate the use of TV all together KarlEd? If you can see what you want, when you want, there is no point to ever watch regular TV again. Same with buying movies, or renting them. What's the point? I can watch it whenever I want for just a monthly fee.
Edit: The bottom line is, there's no money to be made there. They lose all of their advertisements, and they lose the whole concept of TV channels completely.
I totally disagree. First, so what if network TV has to evolve or die? Wagonmakers did. As for buying movies, people still buy them now even though they are readily available to rent. I mean if people today are going to buy every season of Friends when it's played ad nauseum in syndication and could just as easily be rented when you want it and will in reality probably spend an infinitely greater amount of time just taking up shelf space than actually being watched what makes you think VOD is going to change that practice much? As for renting, VOD essentially is renting it. I don't imagine it will be channeled to you for free.
I don't think there's "no money to be made there" either. Sure you won't get advertising revenue in the same way, but if TV is actually any good I'd be willing to pay something per-episode for what I want. The cost could be kept down via product placement or show sponsorship. (I'd certainly rather watch a 30 second ad spot before an unbroken episode than the dang FBI warning I have to watch on every DVD.)
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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quote:Originally posted by T_Smith: Season 1 was on Demand in December. When Jan hit, they switched to Season 2, and are now putting on Season 3. In Feb, they will put on Season 4 and take off Season 2.
But this just underscores my complaint. If I'm new to the Sopranos, I don't want to start with season 2, and I can't get season 1, so why not just rent them in order from Netflix? Don't get me wrong, I'm not totally dissing your business. I'm just not tempted by the product as it is right now. If they fix the bandwidth so they can offer me a much much larger choice, I might be tempted. I would even stand for a 30 minute delay for something to be called from an archive, loaded on a Comcast server, and downloaded to me. But I should be able to keep it for 24 hours from the time I first play it and not from the time of purchase if there is any delay more than 1-5 minutes.
Another thought about loss of commercial advertising, T_Smith, what's going on with Comcast in that regard? Are they getting complaints because of their current VOD? I imagine it eliminates commercials, too. Am I right?
Posts: 6394 | Registered: Dec 1999
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Ok, I get what you are saying now, Karl. I thought you were saying that satellite was giving you real on demand that you were wanting, and cable services weren't. And you are right... not everything is on demand, not every episode when you want it. And I totally see what you mean with Netflix being a good choice, and it is a good option.
As far as the loss of commercial advertising, I just talked with our marketing director here, and he says so far nothing really too serious, but it has been discussed and he can't say too much. The VOD services do eliminate commercials, to a degree. There are still advertisements for more of Comcast services, but nothing like doritoes or coke.
I talked about this with a good number of people here on the floor, just regular sales agents like myself. The general consensus is that the VOD services is an untapped marketing area and will eventually have advertising on it. Honestly, with the DVR's, it isn't as widely used right now to really be a problem for advertising companies, but down the road, it will be.
Posts: 9754 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quote: Your partner makes you pause TV while he goes to the bathroom? You bring up your browser and check out what's happening on Hatrack.
This is already what it's like in the Davidson household, where our computer's been hooked up to our HDTV for two years now. It's nifty. Posts: 37449 | Registered: May 1999
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quote: I totally disagree. First, so what if network TV has to evolve or die? Wagonmakers did. As for buying movies, people still buy them now even though they are readily available to rent. I mean if people today are going to buy every season of Friends when it's played ad nauseum in syndication and could just as easily be rented when you want it and will in reality probably spend an infinitely greater amount of time just taking up shelf space than actually being watched what makes you think VOD is going to change that practice much? As for renting, VOD essentially is renting it. I don't imagine it will be channeled to you for free.
I don't think there's "no money to be made there" either. Sure you won't get advertising revenue in the same way, but if TV is actually any good I'd be willing to pay something per-episode for what I want. The cost could be kept down via product placement or show sponsorship. (I'd certainly rather watch a 30 second ad spot before an unbroken episode than the dang FBI warning I have to watch on every DVD.)
Agree to disagree. Personally, I love network television. One of the few times my entire family spends time together is when we can get together and watch a TV show we all like and discuss it during the commercials. It makes it easier for us to have it on in a certain time slot instead of at everyone’s convenience, because we would never all have free time at the same time. With time slots, we factor the show into our schedules ahead of time.
And what about sports? There would have to be some remnant of live TV left in your VOD world for them?
Maybe a combination of the two (VOD and Live TV)?
Let's start out with your idea. TV that is completely on demand. What if there still were time slots and an episode would not be able to be viewed on demand until its set date and time? For example, the HBO series Rome is on Sundays at 9:00 EST. The episode scheduled for, let's say, January 15th would not be able for people to view on demand until after it airs in it's time slot at 9:00 that night. That leaves the entire aspect of Network TV still intact, and you get your VOD mega database.
Speaking of mega database, have you thought of how much memory every episode of every television show, and every movie would take up? Gathering all of the information alone would be a task that would take years. Especially getting past all of the copyright (would it be copyright?) issues that would be involved in such an endeavor.
Posts: 1401 | Registered: Jun 2004
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I'm very excited about the new video on demand options for some shows on itunes and some cable providers. You pay $1 to $2 per episode and then own it. The only problem here is that if you do this for an entire season, it costs as much as buying the entire season in a nicely packaged set. I hope that this trend catches on and that shows get cheaper and cheaper (say 25 to 50 cents a show). I would like to see all television shows be available pay-per-view and for some shows to start being solely pay-per-view. This could increase the number of television shows available. Instead of networks cancelling a show because they believe something else could make them more money in that time slot, they could keep making if for pay-per-view so long as the show made a profit.
As for issue #3, I'm part of Blockbuster Online and I love it. I use it almost exclusively for tv on dvd. I only occasionally watch new television (Battlestar Galactica being the true exception). However, I do not think we can assume that most people will take on habits like these. Coming home and watching new television when it comes on is so deeply ingrained in American culture, that I think it will be a lot longer than ten years before network television is forced to change much. Any money they lose from DVRs can be made up in DVD sales and pay-per-view options.
Posts: 1947 | Registered: Aug 2002
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I have a DVR, it's called my laptop. Don't have to pay any fees, and my recording habits aren't reported to anyone.
Windows Media Center + a TV Tuner = Hooray!
I don't even watch half the tv I used to, but now that I have this hooked up, I might start to record more of it and watch later.
I can imagine it's possible that a lot more shows will go direct to DVD. Actors will get paid less, that'll be a big way to cut costs, and the seasons of DVD will cost a lot more. That's the only way to make it cost neutral, but TV as we know it just might be dead in the future.
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Thats what I have, its great. I can record and burn shows I like and listen/watch shows while I surf the web. Posts: 503 | Registered: May 2005
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) Now, though, I've gotten to the point that I don't feel the need to see anything live, or usually even the same night it was broadcast. In fact, most of the serial TV I've watched lately has been from DVD, and I actually prefer it that way. (I love Netflix!!!)
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