quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Yes, Twinky, of course we should continue to "work on modifying the system so that it's more secure." I notice you said more secure, not perfectly secure. So the question really is, what percentage of insecurity are we willing to live with? Because unless you specify perfectly secure, and it can actually be attained, then we will have to live with some percentage of insecurity in the voting system.
That's true. However, as insecure electronic voting machines have spread throughout the U.S., the system has become progressively less secure. In other words, I think you've been moving in the wrong direction.
So far, I haven't seen an electronic system in widespread deployment in the U.S. that isn't more vulnerable to fraud -- and fraud on a larger scale -- than paper systems are, which I think is a reasonable argument in favour of sticking with paper (as my own country [is doing, at least so far]).
The other side of the coin, though, is that with so much on each ballot, electronic voting is probably a lot simpler in American elections, which makes it an attractive option to streamline the voting process. Here in Canada there's usually only one thing on the ballot in a given election (municipal elections being the exception), which means paper voting is still comparatively easy.
Posts: 10886 | Registered: Feb 2000
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posted
My predictions on interesting/close Senate races: Sadly, Leibermann will beat Lamont. Lamont ran a good campaign, but independents + republicans + some democrats supporting Joe will just be too much to overcome. hmmm, I just saw a report about record turnout in CT, like 70%. That might be good for Lamont, but I'm sticking with my Joe win prediction.
Webb beats Allen by 3-5% in Virginia. Allen made too many missteps to win.
In TN, Corker bests Harold Ford by 1-3%. Ford had a good campaign, but not good enough I think.
In MT, Burns will go down in flames to Tester, by 5%+ Burns came across as clueless in several statements, like when he criticized firefighters during a brush fire. Or when he said there was a "secret plan to win in Iraq."
MO is too close to call.
In MD, I hope the Democrat Cardin can pull it off. I'll give him the nod, but it's the prediction I have the least confidence in.
Posts: 6316 | Registered: Jun 2003
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posted
I forgot: Ohio--Dems could run the board in all major races here, due to many recent Republican scandals. They will certainly do very, very well here even if it's not a clean sweep. (hardly a dramatic prediction.)
and PA--bye, Ricky! Santorum to lose by 6%+.
Posts: 6316 | Registered: Jun 2003
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posted
Two hours until the polls close in the East, where almost all of the really important races are. Most analysts say that everything east of the Mississippi is what will decide the election, though there are a lot of important gains to be had for Democrats in Colorado, the senate seat in Montana, and a sprinkling of House seats elsewhere.
No one has really done a real look at the House, which is understandable, it's a lot of information to sift through:
Republicans stand to pickup only two seats, both are in Georgia, and both will be the result of gerrymandering, which worked so well in Texas for them two years ago. I have to imagine there will be a similar court battle as there was in Texas. But this isn't a give away, they are still toss-ups by most anaylst's current thoughts.
Democrats are heavily involved in 50 hotly contested, down to the wire races. And almost all of those are Republican held districts. I won't go through them all, there's just too many. But most Republicans are considering a miracle day to be only losing 14 seats, and holding onto the House. I'd be curious to hear the thought process that Dag and Occ. used in projecting a Republicans hold on the House. It's not out of the question, low voter turnout (from rain or apathy), election fraud, polls being wrong (in who they poll, what questions that ask) and Republican tendencies to surge just before an election all play a role. But polls aren't usually wrong on that large a scale.
Also not discussed were the gubanatorial races, where Democrats are expected to pick up at least a half dozen new states, and a few state legislatures are expected to change over as well.
The thing about Maryland, is while it is the bluest of blue states, the Republicans running a black senate candidate is going to be a coup for them. They'll steal away 20% of the black vote at least. A bad day for the Democrats is if they get 35% or more of the black vote, which could be a death knell for Cardin. State black leaders have endorsed Cardin, while many secretly protest his politics. From the outside, it looks like black voters simply want a black man representing them, regardless of his political views, but judging from the minority of black voters he's likely to get, I'd call that a false assumption. Black voters will decide that election.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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I'm not used to living in Nebraska. Ben Nelson is about as much a Democrat as OSC is, but the guy he is running against is considerably farther to the right than Nelson.
Where N is Nelson and R is Ricketts. I almost feel like I have to vote against Ricketts, having one of his campaign planks the promise to push for a gay marriage ammendment , but voting for Nelson may make me pinch my nose as I vote.
Posts: 5656 | Registered: Oct 1999
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I'd post all the data I have collected on the matter but here is my projection.
Dems take a majority in the house
Reps keep their majority in the senate.
It will be interesting to see if GWB is a lame duck president his last year in office.
Every news outlet I have been reading keeps saying, "Dems all the way baby!" I really don't think that's going to be the case.
Polls close in 1.5 hours on the east coast I believe. Get out and vote.
As a side note, I really think its interesting the direction Arizona is heading. Its pretty much a republican stronghold for the senate but there are districts that might actually go to democrats either now or in the near future. In the next 8 years I can see it being a battleground state.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Maryland will probably go to Cardin and O'Malley [for governor]. Duncan would've been good -- he was a great exec for MoCo -- but he pulled out of the race earlier this year.
I have a gut feeling that says Allen will pull through OK. Close and probably not well enough to be a viable candidate for President, but OK.
I don't think Ford will win in TN, though it'll be close.
posted
I like Ben Nelson. Not necessarily his politics, but he seems like a nice enough guy.
Mostly because his nickname is "Benator" which I think is funny. He seemed like an honestly likeable, nice, engaging guy when he was on the Daily Show.
His politics don't bother me too much. He's to the right of maybe five or six Republican senators, the more liberal ones. But really, what the nation needs is more bi-partisan, centrist senators, not less, so he's fine by me.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Maybe the problem is that all his commercials in Nebraska are trying to sway the conservative masses here, because even his own commercials point out how far to the right he is on issues, especially immigration.
Ricketts: "I'm far right on this issue"
Nelson: "I'm even farther to the right on this issue"
posted
Hey, Lyr, I really appreciate the updates. Would you mind copying and pasting to a new post each time instead of editing? I think it'd be cool to have a record of what we knew when. You could use the quote button and it'd be just as many clicks for you.
If you're changing it ridiculously often, maybe a new post every half hour so.
Posts: 26071 | Registered: Oct 2003
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No prob Dag. The only reason I was editing and not posting was that I didn't want this to become a giant thread of Lyrhawn posts full of numbers, I thought it would turn people off. But I'd be more than happy to. I don't mind updating every ten minutes, I have the night off work, and all I'm doing is staring at CNN/CBS and watching NCIS. So with that in mind:
Newest projections:
Ballot Proposals: VA Marriage amendment will pass.
House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party: 30 Dem +2 16 Repub -1 0 Indpen -1
Senate Winners: Bernie Sanders (I) Lugar (R-IN) Byrd (D-WV) Snowe (R-ME) Kennedy (D-MA) Nelson (D-FL) Casey (D-PA)*
Gubanatorial Winners: Strickland (D-OH)* Patrick (D-MA)*
*denotes change in party
(I've edited this post like a half dozen times already, trying to keep it current, I'll continue to do so until it falls too far down).
Key Senate Races:
Virginia (39% precincts reporting): Allen (R) 49% Webb (D) 50% Parker (O) 1%
Ohio (1% precincts reporting): Dewine (R) 43% Brown (D) 57%
Tennessee (2% precincts reporting): Corker (R) 55% Ford (D) 45%
posted
Amazing that so many races are neck and neck.
Except for Florida, where Nelson pretty much walked right over Katherine Harris to the surprise of absolutely no one except possibly Ms. Harris.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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Both races have Democratic incumbents, both are the leftovers of districts gerrymandered by the Republicans. These are pretty much the ONLY two seats Republicans are expected to pick up, but they will both be very competitive.
Keep in mind, that with all these races, WHICH districts have their precincts reporting is key, but as the number gets past the 50% mark or so, don't expect to see numbers fluctuate too wildly. For example, if all of southern VA were to report, and Allen was ahead by 10%, that could easily change for Webb once heavily Democratic northern VA voted. Take everything with a grain of salt.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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I've decided, to keep this a shorter post, to remove some of the more obvious winners, and to only report some winners when it's a changeover. If anyone has any requests for me to update on, post them.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
I think Lieberman is going to hold on to CT, for now.
Independents in VA are leaning toward Webb, slightly, but the Republican GOTV seems to be making a difference. As of right now, Webb's leading by less than 100 votes.
1. The higher the vote Schlesinger gets in CT, the lower Lieberman's vote will be. His victory hingest on Republicans voting for him, in the hopes of a moderate Democrat winning, rather than voting for a Republican they know will lose. So, if you start to see Schlesinger's numbers go above 10-15%, look out for a Lamont comeback.
2. Democrats, in VA anyway, created this year a GOTV effort that mirrors what the Republicans did. They have phone banks, volunteers canvasing neighborhoods, and offering to drive little old ladies to their precincts. Democrats realize that this is an equalizer, and they are venturing into Republican territory too. It still isn't as well set up or funded as the Republicans' is, but this is a set up for 2008. Look for Republican gains from this to be LESS than they have been in past years.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Ballot Proposals: VA Marriage amendment will pass. AZ English as official language will pass. MO Raise the minimum wage will pass OH Raise the minimum wage will pass SC Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass TN Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party: 106 Dem +4 (2IN/1KY/1VT) 87 Repub -3 0 Indpen -1
Gubanatorial Winners: Strickland (D-OH)* Patrick (D-MA)* Spitzer (D-NY)* O'Malley (D-MD)*
*denotes change in party
Key Senate Races:
Virginia (82% precincts reporting): Allen (R) 50% Webb (D) 49% (down by 28,000 votes)(reports that the Democratic north hasn't been counted yet) Parker (O) 1%
Tennessee (38% precincts reporting): Corker (R) 51% Ford (D) 48% (39,000 down) Five Independents - 1%
Everyone is still talking about a possible run by Santorum for the White House in 2 years, and it isn't that crazy. Giuliani and McCain are the two names most popular with Republicans nationwide right now for Presidential candidates. But they aren't social conservatives. Running them will steal away a few democratic votes, but the number of social conservative Republicans that it forces to stay home is much, much larger.
Santorum has a real chance of jumping ahead to be a Republican, very conservative favorite.
Ned Lamont is conceding - 10:15pm being down 10% with 21% of the vote counted. CT
posted
Aside from Harris, whom everybody expected to lose, it looks like the Republicans haven't lost any ground in Florida. In particular, the local news outlets are already calling the gubernatorial race for Charlie Crist.
I've been following Crist's career since he ran for and won education commissioner. He's a careerist, and has made an art out of promising stuff he has no intention of delivering. He also ran a dirty campaign full of smear ads. Not that Jim Davis looked like a great choice to me either, but I believe he was definitely the lesser of two evils.
Posts: 13680 | Registered: Mar 2002
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My 14-year-old son is particularly dismayed that Crist seems to be winning, as he was hoping to see the FCAT go away. We tried to explain to him that Davis wasn't planning on removing it, just its status as sole arbiter of school and teacher worth, but I don't think he got it. Or our explanation of what a "single issue voter" is...
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
I encourage you all to read the BBCNews election blog. They're written from an outsider's perspective so some of the postings are rather amusing.
posted
Ballot Proposals: VA Marriage amendment will pass. AZ English as official language will pass. MO Raise the minimum wage will pass OH Raise the minimum wage will pass SC Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass TN Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass MT Raise the Minimim Wage will pass NV Raise the Minimum Wage will pass WI Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party: 129 Dem +6 (2IN/1KY/1VT/1NH/1OH) 118 Repub -5 0 Indpen -1
Gubanatorial Winners: Strickland (D-OH)* Patrick (D-MA)* Spitzer (D-NY)* O'Malley (D-MD)*
*denotes change in party
Key Senate Races:
Virginia (94% precincts reporting): Allen (R) 50% Webb (D) 49% (down by 30,000 votes)(at least one heavily democratic, well populated county not yet counted) Parker (O) 1%
Tennessee (64% precincts reporting): Corker (R) 52% Ford (D) 47% (62,000 down) Five Independents - 1%
posted
By standing up a president that wasn't bringing you any votes anyway. By being the Republican candidate following a reasonably popular Republican candidate. By being more widely known than your opponent. By mercilessly hammering your opponent on your opponent's attendance record.
Really, Davis is a political nobody and he pulled nearly half the vote. He did good.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
Oh, and it looks like every single ammendment is passing again (EDIT: in Florida, land of comfortable pigs). Posts: 13680 | Registered: Mar 2002
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I'm actually more concerned with issues 4 and 5 in Ohio than the election results. At the moment, both are passing, but 4 is a constitutional amendment, whereas 5 is a law. 4 will trump 5, which in my opinion, is a bad thing.
note: issue 4 is smoke-LESS ohio, which would allow businesses to choose whether or not to be smoke free, but lifts all city-wide bans on public smoking and prevents anymore from being passed. issue 5 is smoke-FREE ohio, which would ban smoking in all public places in ohio.
Posts: 1591 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Worse than the attendance thing was the out of context ads on how Jim Davis wanted to tax everything in sight, liked to kick dogs, and hated your grandma.
Posts: 13680 | Registered: Mar 2002
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posted
I find it interesting that the backlash against Republicans most significantly affects the moderate Republicans in the northeast. I wish that the northeast could keep their Republicans, while the South would lose some of theirs.
I mean, a Republican in Massachusetts or New Jersey is almost a Democrat anywhere else - for example, Kean (R-NJ) was pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-Iraq pullout.
Posts: 3960 | Registered: Jul 2001
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Ic - I saw the commercial that threatened in horror-movie-tones that Davis would eliminate Florida's tax exemptions. That was when I decided to vote for him.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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quote:Originally posted by pH: Everyone can breathe just fine in the restaurants now. Eliminating smoking everywhere is stupid.
-pH
Actually, there have been plenty of times I've had to leave a restaurant because of someone smoking irritating my asthma. And I was sitting in the non-smoking section.
Posts: 1591 | Registered: Jul 2005
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, but voting for Nelson may make me pinch my nose as I vote.
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