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» Hatrack River Forum » Active Forums » Books, Films, Food and Culture » Midterm Election 2006 Results/Commentary Thread (Page 3)

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Author Topic: Midterm Election 2006 Results/Commentary Thread
pH
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I'm so sad that I missed the Florida campaign ads. [Frown]

Louisiana's weren't exciting at all.

-pH

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Chris Bridges
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"Everyone can breathe just fine in the restaurants now. Eliminating smoking everywhere is stupid."

Can't help you there. As a person who had to leave restaurants years back when his asthmatic son started gasping thanks to nearby cigars, I got no problem at all banning smoking in public places. I support your right to poison yourself, but you'll need to develop some sort of helmet to keep the smoke to yourself...

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blacwolve
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Lincoln Chafee was one of my favorite Senators. He was one of three Senators who have said they supported Gay Marriage.

Mike DeWine was also a great Senator who got voted out. It makes me sad.

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James Tiberius Kirk
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Finally saw Santorum's speech. To be honest, I think it was pretty classy.

--j_k

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Icarus
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Crist's ads were a big factor in my decision to vote for Davis. Too bad the scare ads worked anyway.
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pH
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Chris, I don't think that should be a matter for LAW. My little brother had terrible, horrible asthma until his mid-teens, and I have breathing troubles now and again, thanks to smoke, mold, pollen, and such. I still think it's ridiculous to create laws like this.

-pH

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kojabu
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And I don't think that marriage laws should exist, but hey guess what, a ton of constitutional amendments just got passed (or will most likely pass).
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Tinros
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We have laws to make sure people don't murder me. We have laws to make sure people don't rape me, beat me, or harm me in any way. Why should laws making sure people don't give me cancer be any different? Why should I endure painful attacks for their pleasure?
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pH
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Why should I have to live in a world where pregnant women are allowed to walk free in public? After all, being in their presence gives me terrible anxiety attacks. Should I go about campaigning for that to be law, as well?

-pH

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Tinros
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they're not harmful to ALL people. Smoking has proven to be dangerous, period- whereas seeing pregnant people has negative effect on very few people.
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Dagonee
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By my rough guess, Webb would have to take about 65% of the last 4% of the precincts to tie Allen.

I don't think he's going to do it.

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Dagonee
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Oh, that number just jumped down to 56.7% with 3% left.
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James Tiberius Kirk
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I agree with you, Dag. Webb just gave a speech about leading in absentee ballots and such; I think it's a bad sign when a candidate relies to those.

(On the bbc feed I'm streaming, they seem to really like Harold Ford. I wonder why?)

--j_k

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Paul Goldner
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The last four precincts are almost all richmond city, so... its possible. Either way, though, its gonna end up in automatic recount zone for virginia.
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jh
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I just heard on the news that Democrats have control of the House. On the flip side, it makes me sad so many anti-gay marriage measures have passed.
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Tinros
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quote:
Originally posted by jh:
I just heard on the news that Democrats have control of the House. On the flip side, it makes me sad so many anti-gay marriage measures have passed.

*nods*

I'd like to be able to marry whomever I choose. Even if they don't CALL it marriage, at least give us the same rights. If they think you can choose your sexuality, I'd like to see them try to choose to be gay. When they can do that, I'll believe them.

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Lyrhawn
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Ballot Proposals:
VA Marriage amendment will pass.
AZ English as official language will pass.
MO Raise the minimum wage will pass
OH Raise the minimum wage will pass
SC Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
TN Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
MT Raise the Minimim Wage will pass
NV Raise the Minimum Wage will pass
WI Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass

House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party:
168 Dem +17
137 Repub -16
0 Indpen -1

Senate Winners:
Dewine(D-OH)*
Casey (D-PA)*
Whitehouse (D-RI)*
Lieberman (I-CT)*

Gubanatorial Winners:
Strickland (D-OH)*
Patrick (D-MA)*
Spitzer (D-NY)*
O'Malley (D-MD)*

*denotes change in party

Key Senate Races:

Virginia (97% precincts reporting):
Allen (R) 50%
Webb (D) 49% (down by 11,000 votes)(heavily narrowed the gap)
Parker (O) 1%

Tennessee (86% precincts reporting):
Corker (R) 51%
Ford (D) 48% (54,000 down)
Five Independents - 1%

Missouri (45% precincts reporting):
McCaskill (D) 45%
Talent (R) 51%
Other: (L/I) 4%

Marland (31% precincts)
Cardin (D) 48% (projected by CNN to win)
Steele (R) 50%

Montana (4% precincts)
Tester (D) 54%
Burns (R) 44%

House:

Georgia 08 (67% precincts)
Collins (R) 49%
Georgia (D) 51% (winning by 1,700)

Georgia 12 (77% precincts)
Burns (R) 50%
Barrow(D) 50% (winning by 600)

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James Tiberius Kirk
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The Allen - Webb margin is now at 7000 votes. Tester looks like he's going to win in Montana vs. Burns.

--j_k

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Paul Goldner
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The last precincts to report in virginia are in richmond city, a couple in arlington, and one in virginia beach. The richmond city and arlington precincts are likely to be heavy webb, while the beach precinct is likely to be allen.

Final count before the recount will have webb up by a few votes.

Prepare for florida 2000, since the most likely scenario is dems take montana, republicans take arizona and nevada, and we have two independents, so prior to the va, missouri, tennesee, jumble, republicans will have 48 seats, democrats 47, and independents 2 caucusing with the democrats. Dems take one of the three and its a 50/50 split in caucus, so both parties are going to fight heavy over any one of those three states if its close.

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Lyrhawn
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2,500 votes, with 1% of the precincts left to be counted for the VA Senator race.

Edit to change, that's 2,500 votes with WEBB in the lead.

Also - The remaining precincts are in Arlington and Charlottesville, where Webb had an overwhelming majority.

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Paul Goldner
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I called this one correctly at 8:08 EST! Hurray me!

Anyrate, looks like montana and VA go to the dems, MO and TN go to GOP, though a lot of votes left to be counted there, so the caucus ends up 50/50 with a 50/48/2 split for the GOP meaning they retain control of the committee chairs meaning nothing changes in the senate. Sigh.

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Lyrhawn
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Paul -

Don't count McCaskill out yet. It looks like the senate is going to come down to Missouri.

It's being reported in many places that the districts not yet counted are far more heavily Democratic than Republican. So much like Webb's come from behind in the last minutes, the same thing could happen in MO.

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Avatar300
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quote:
Originally posted by Tinros:
quote:
Originally posted by pH:
Everyone can breathe just fine in the restaurants now. Eliminating smoking everywhere is stupid.

-pH

Actually, there have been plenty of times I've had to leave a restaurant because of someone smoking irritating my asthma. And I was sitting in the non-smoking section.
Nobody forced you to enter a restaurant that allowed smoking. You have now forced the proprietor of every restaurant in the state to bow to your demands.

Whatever happened to property rights?

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Paul Goldner
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"Don't count McCaskill out yet. It looks like the senate is going to come down to Missouri.

It's being reported in many places that the districts not yet counted are far more heavily Democratic than Republican. So much like Webb's come from behind in the last minutes, the same thing could happen in MO."

I hope so, but I don't see it in my numbers.

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Adam_S:
Can I just say that Prop 87 is one of the best ideas that is the worst written/conceived ideas I've come across. I support all the intentions but can't support nonsense new beaurocracys and no accountability.

Totally!
quote:
Originally posted by Tinros:
Smoke less ohio failed, smoke free ohio passed! My asthma will improve now!

*does happy dance*

*welcomes into the fold* [Smile]
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TomDavidson
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Okay, so we may not have successfully defended marriage from attack in Wisconsin, but at least we managed to kick out the guy who orchestrated the attack. Let us all pause for a moment to remember the odious slimeball that was John Gard....
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Tarrsk
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quote:
Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk:
My BBC News feed says that the Dems have taken over the House; I'm wondering if that's a bit premature.

FC, I'm noticing the same thing. It's a shame, because this country needs more moderates.

I'm hoping this election isn't just driving the red and blue states farther apart.

--j_k

Well, most of the Democratic pickups in the House tonight are conservatives or centrists, so I'm not entirely sure why you're disappointed...
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rivka
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Four more years of Ah-nold.

>_<

Shoot me now.

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Paul Goldner
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CNN IS TOYING WITH ME! TOYING I SAY!

They reported 5% more of missouri and huge gains for mckaskill, and then removed it all.

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Lyrhawn
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Ballot Proposals:
VA Marriage amendment will pass.
AZ English as official language will pass.
MO Raise the minimum wage will pass
OH Raise the minimum wage will pass
SC Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
TN Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
MT Raise the Minimim Wage will pass
NV Raise the Minimum Wage will pass
WI Ban on Same Sex Marriage will pass
AZ Raise the Minimum Wage will pass
AZ $1 million voter reward will fail
MI Ban on Affirmative Action will pass
SD Ban on ALL Abortions will fail


House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party:
206 Dem +23
168 Repub -22
0 Indpen -1

Senate Winners:
Dewine(D-OH)*
Casey (D-PA)*
Whitehouse (D-RI)*
Lieberman (I-CT)*

Gubanatorial Winners:
Strickland (D-OH)*
Patrick (D-MA)*
Spitzer (D-NY)*
O'Malley (D-MD)*

*denotes change in party

Key Senate Races:

Virginia (99% precincts reporting):
Allen (R) 49%
Webb (D) 50% (up by 2,700)
Parker (O) 1%

Missouri (69% precincts reporting):
McCaskill (D) 47% (down 48,000, I think this will be very close)
Talent (R) 50%
Other: (L/I) 3%

Montana (31% precincts)
Tester (D) 54%
Burns (R) 44%

House:

Georgia 08 (94% precincts)
Collins (R) 50%
Georgia (D) 50% (losing by 1,200)

Georgia 12 (92% precincts)
Burns (R) 50%
Barrow(D) 50% (winning by 1,000)

I gave Corker TN, so it remains Republican, and I gave Maryland to Democrats. No change on either.

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rivka
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Oy. 83 passed.

But at least 87 didn't! Nor 88 or 89.

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Rappin' Ronnie Reagan
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Well I'm extremely disappointed in my fellow Tennesseans. Over 80% voted for the marriage amendment. I had gotten hopeful when around a week ago a bunch of religious leaders came out in opposition to it. I had no idea it was going to pass by that much. [Frown]

At least now there won't be anymore campaign ads. I was getting really tired of Corker saying he couldn't afford all those "fancy" ads Ford could in an ad that was just as "fancy" as any of the Ford ads. Not to mention that racist ad from the Republican Party whose slogan was "he's just not right".

edit: But I suppose pretty much anything's better than the guy who experiments on stray cats (i.e. Frist).

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Rappin' Ronnie Reagan:
At least now there won't be anymore campaign ads.

AMEN!
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Rappin' Ronnie Reagan
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Oh, great. I realize I made a grammatical error after you quote it.

CNN has switched from the headline "Dems need 3 seats to take Senate" to "GOP needs 1 seat to retain Senate." Wonder if that means they think it's more likely the GOP will keep control.

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Lyrhawn
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House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party:
212 Dem +24 -1
176 Repub -23 +1
0 Indpen -1

Dems take a majority of the governerships. On a personal note, Dems retain Jennifer Granholm in Michigan, and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan for the Senate!

Key Senate Races:

Virginia (99% precincts reporting):
Allen (R) 49%
Webb (D) 50% (up by 2,700)
Parker (O) 1%

Missouri (80% precincts reporting):
McCaskill (D) 49% (UP 14,000)
Talent (R) 48%
Other: (L/I) 3%

Montana (44% precincts)
Tester (D) 53%
Burns (R) 45%

House:

Georgia 08 (94% precincts)
Collins (R) 50%
Georgia (D) 50% (losing by 1,200)

Georgia 12 (95% precincts)
Burns (R) 50%
Barrow(D) 50% (winning by 1,200)

I project the Dems lose GA-08, which the Republicans gerrymandered away. That'll reduce by one the gain of the Democratic seats when it's called eventually by the big shots.

On Virginia: There are reports that 31,000 absentee and provisional ballots in Fairfax County have NOT been counted. Fairfax is 2 to 1 for Webb so far, which might give him a considerable lead. Allen supporters are nervous about that, but regardless, it looks like MT and MO might just go Democratic, which brings the control of the senate down to a close VA race.

VA commonwealth law says that if the winner wins by less than a half percent, the loser may request a full recount, which the commonwealth will foot the bill for. We probably won't get final numbers on this until the morning, though I'll continue to report on it until 2am or so probably. But likely, we aren't going to get any answers until the lawyers decide it for us [Wink] .

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Kasie H
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No, what they need is Virginia.

McCaskill is surging in MO. Tester will win MT. That right there gives Dems 50 Senators.

So if VA goes to Webb, Dems have 51. If VA goes to Allen, it's a 50-50 split.

VA will go to a recount, so we won't know the Senate tonight.

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Morbo
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Wow, Santorum is down by 18-20% ? I knew he was going down, but I didn't anticipate that much of a margin.
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Icarus
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quote:
Originally posted by Ela:
quote:
Originally posted by Icarus:
Oh, and it looks like every single ammendment is passing again (EDIT: in Florida, land of comfortable pigs). [Roll Eyes]

Yes, and now it will be harder to pass constitutional amendments. [Frown]
And a bloody good thing, too!

That's one of only two ammendments I voted in favor of. It's an embarrassment how we in Florida use ammendments as a substitute for the legislative process. Constitutions should have more staying power than to up and change the whole thing every time you think some group should get an extra homestead exemption, or pigs should be protected from discomfort, or last year's ammendment was maybe not such a good idea and be repealed. 80% of the things we've done through ammendments should have been done through laws, and I for one am glad it will be a little bit harder to ammend our constitution now.

[/soapbox]

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rivka
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Ah. So y'all have the same problem we do.

I wonder if this is a warm-weather phenomenon?

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Lyrhawn
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If the Dems win the three left up for grabs, that gives us a 49/49 split with two Democratic caucusing Independents.

What does that do for the chairmanships in the Senate? I don't know how that works. But I do know that controlling a chairman seat in the Senate is far, far less important in the Senate than in the House.

This gives effective control of the senate to the Democrats, but it's still a tie, assuming Dems win all three toss ups. Montana looks like a lock, and I'd say that MO and VA LOOK good for Democrats.

But we'll see. Either way, Bush's legislative agenda is dead.

Also, if Dems lose MO and VA, it will be because of Independents voting for ultra liberals. Not that they "Stole" the election. But it's fair to say that if they hadn't run, neither race would be as close.

BTW, Lampson-D picked up the TX-22, which WAS Tom Delay's district.

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Lyrhawn
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House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party:
221 Dem +24 -1
182 Repub -23 +1

Key Senate Races:

Virginia (99% precincts reporting):
Allen (R) 49%
Webb (D) 50% (up by 2,700)
Parker (O) 1%

Missouri (85% precincts reporting):
McCaskill (D) 49% (UP 25,000)
Talent (R) 48%
Other: (L/I) 3%

Montana (60% precincts)
Tester (D) 51% (up by 9,000)
Burns (R) 47%

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Morbo
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MSNBC has Dems picking up 33 seats in the House, with only 4 races not projected.
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Juxtapose
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I find it interesting that Webb has already declared victory. Seems a bit premature. McCaskill has also, but her lead seems a bit safer.
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Alcon
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Well, Webb does have 99% of precincts reporting and a 6000 vote lead.

EDIT: And using CNN's percentages to estimate the number of remaining votes I would guess there are between 5000 and 8000 votes yet to be counted. The precincts not yet finished have mostly been coming down on Webb's side. If they continue with their current vote ratios I wouldn't say his victory declaration is too premature. Maybe a little.

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Morbo
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It does seem premature for Webb. Here's hoping he wins.

MSNBC has projected all House races, projects Dems will pick up 39 seats!!

So Speaker Pelosi will become the most powerful woman in American history.

[Party]

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plaid
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Thanks for all the #s, Lyr!
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Morbo
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MSNBC just projected McCaskill to unseat Talent in MO. CNN concurs.

So that makes a 49-49 split, with MT and VA still up in the air.

I wonder if Liebermann might switch and caucus with Republicans?

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Lyrhawn
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House Winners - Numbers to the right indicate gain/loss from other party:
226 Dem +27
185 Repub -26

Key Senate Races:

Virginia (99% precincts reporting):
Allen (R) 49%
Webb (D) 50% (up by 11,500)
Parker (O) 1%

Missouri (89% precincts reporting):
McCaskill (D) 49% (up 36,000)
Talent (R) 48% (CONCEDES DEFEAT)
Other: (L/I) 3%

Montana (65% precincts)
Tester (D) 51% (up by 11,000)
Burns (R) 47%

Probably the last report before I head to bed. And I might have miscalled that Georgia district. It looks like the Democratic contender has pulled back ahead by 600 votes, so, it may be that the Dems lose nothing.

I would highly doubt that Lieberman switches to the Republican side. First of all, the man IS a democrat. He's a centrist, very much so, and even though the Republicans might have more to offer him (chair of a powerful committee for instance), ultimately he has to know he'll lose his seat in six years. It's short term gains that guarantee long term losses. I don't think he'd run for president as a Democrat, be a democratic senator, run for the senate as a democrat, promise his constituents that he'll vote with the democrats, and then say he's a Republican.

[ November 08, 2006, 02:29 AM: Message edited by: Lyrhawn ]

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Morbo
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Where are your numbers from Lyrhawn?
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Stray
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Thanks so much for keeping track of all this, Lyrhawn [Smile]
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