posted
It's only 60% reportinig. I do think the pollsters will have to answer for that if Clinton ultimately takes the show.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
About 4,600 votes separating him. Still no reporting from the heavily Obama favored college towns.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
For the record, all these "counties" as CNN and others are calling them are actually cities and towns. New England isn't like a lot of the rest of the USA. There is no unincorporated land up here (except maybe in way-up-north Maine).
Looks like Hilary has it. Her real margin has been going up proportional to the reported results percentage. An interesting news day tomorrow.
Bok, I dunno, they still haven't counted the votes in the cities (counties, cities, whatever, they haven't been counted) that are expected to go heavily Obama, and there are maybe 10-12K votes there. If he takes those by a 2 to 1 margin, it puts the race back into real contention.
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Blayne Bradley
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posted
But only 66% is in? what about the remaining 34%?
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quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: But only 66% is in? what about the remaining 34%?
They're projecting Clinton to win because in the bigger cities she continues to maintain a pretty big lead.
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A lot of the time they will take the results, especially if they have been consistant for a long time (Hillary's lead has held steady in Manchester and Nashua, the big population centers) and she's been ahead by at least 2,500 for the last hour and change.
Looking at that kind of trend, a lot of them will assume that they will continue and that the last 34% can't save him. And that may be. Generally though places (CNN) like to wait if specific uncounted counties (cities, whatever) are expected to skew heavily to one side.
The pollsters are going to catch hell regardless tomorrow.
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posted
Not exactly the blowout win for Obama it looked like just earlier today. What happened? How could the pollsters get it so wrong?
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posted
So, how many delegates will she win over Obama in this race? I know the super delegates are already somewhat decided, but I wonder how New Hampshire divides up those delegate votes.
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posted
My question - Obama has already called to congratulate her. What happens if he surges and wins? Does he call back? Is there an appropriate Hallmark card for the situation?
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posted
The pollsters oversampled the youth vote and undersampled women. In other words? They overcorrected for Iowa.
The Superdelegates aren't totally decided. Less than half have given their vote. Near as I can tell, Obama and Hillary have 8 delegates each from New Hampshire.
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posted
CNN.com shows to cumulative delegates, and really, Romney has 23, Hillary has 23, and Obama has 24. Or maybe I have them reversed. McCain, by comparison, has 9.
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quote:Originally posted by Tstorm: So, how many delegates will she win over Obama in this race? I know the super delegates are already somewhat decided, but I wonder how New Hampshire divides up those delegate votes.
posted
Heh, he'll do what Gore did and call back to say "wait, I was kidding, I take it back!"
6,900 vote gap.
The Hanover vote is in, Obama took it by a two to one margin, but only netted 1,500 votes. Still a 6,600 vote gap though. Nothing from the more heavily populated Durham. At this point I think we're looking for the margin of victory.
Here's something to think about. Edwards has said he'll stay in the race, well, until the middle class have their say, basically, God knows when that might be. But what would happen to the race of Edwards pulled out. Where would his votes go? Could that hand it to Obama?
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Blayne Bradley
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posted
You know what, I told you the 19th amendment was a mistake all this time *nods*.
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Blayne Bradley
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posted
"Yes We Can!" *kicks Hilary into the bottomless pit*
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posted
The superdelegates are uncommitted by definition, and only a handful have given endorsements to any candidate.
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posted
The margin is back down to 2%, but that's of larger numbers. This reminds me of when I was looking at the rate of change on sunset times the other day, or possibly this morning.
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posted
pooka, they usually pledge their delegates to another candidate. That said, I don't think there is anything that binds them to the pledge. Of course, I would bet they get blackballed and lose their delegate status the next time around if they don't.
posted
To the delegates given to them by the state...I'm not sure. Legally they could vote for whoever they want regardless. So I wouldn't be surprised if those who dropped out are allowed to more or less designate where their delegates should go to in their absence.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Javert: Watching Hilary's speech right now. She seems very quite, reserved, and tired.
Huge difference between this and Obama's speech.
She seems relieved. This is going to give her a break from all the "Hillary is Out" headlines we've seen over the past few days.
-So where does the Romney go from here? A Mass politician losing NH is historic in its own way, but I don't think his campaign in "bad" shape -- he's placed second in two contests, and has had one victory, after all. Overall, he may be doing better than the others, even with these two high-profile losses.
--j_k edited to fix paragraph 2
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Durham and Hanover are both in. Hillary still has a 6200 vote lead.
I know it'll never be looked at this way, because in the media a win is almost a winner take all media grab, the gap doesn't matter. But 280,000 votes were cast for the Democrats. First off that's like 70,000 more than in 2004, which is an amazingly good sign for the Democratic party. Considering how many people generally do NOT vote in primaries, this is even more proof that Democrats are utterly fired up this year. 220,000 Republicans, that's actually a drop from 2004 when the candidate, Bush, was running unopposed! Not a good sign for them.
But look, 280,000 votes, and he might lose by 6,000, Hillary doesn't exactly have a mandate. That's a narrow damned margin. I think they come out of Iowa and New Hamphsire neck and neck in the other early states, and they'll barrel into HyperTuesday in a dead heat. New Hampshire proved I think that Edwards and Richardson are done, it's a Hillary/Obama race, and that race is still on.
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posted
If he got second in every race and the first place winner was different every time, he could in theory win. Not that I think that's our best man to send into the General.
I think Thompson may very well be out. Here's a chart that shows all of tonight's tallies:
posted
I wonder how many of those independents voted to manipulate the party opposite that of the candidate they plan on voting for in the general election.
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Romney is fine...for the moment. He and Huckabee are fighting it out for Michigan at the moment. Delegates there don't matter as much as the media push. We haven't seen the bump that McCain will get yet. It almost makes the polls we have now useless, but Romney is very much alive, even if he may be a little cash poor after the money he has wasted in Iowa and New Hampshire.
All top four Republicans are still alive. But let's see what the polls say at the end of the week, if we even trust them anymore.
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I suppose you mean Giuliani. But there comes a point where if you're seeing a ton of ads for him, and he's only in 4th place, well, all the ads in the world won't turn Taco Bell into McDonalds.
P.S. Obama just broke 90k, but Clinton broke 95k.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
I was amazed to see Clinton's weakness yesterday, and have to wonder if it was planned. The main thing attracting me to her over Obama is that she's made of steel and she would be a strong leader. Getting teary-eyed may not be an ideal trait.
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posted
Top four pooka. He's still ahead or in second in the HyperTuesday states. Nationally McCain is the weakest of them. We'll see what sort of bump he gets this week, but he's way down there. Romney hasn't been knocked off, and Huckabee isn't gone, even if he has been quiet lately. There's no clear frontrunner among them. And Giuliani still has a lot of money, and a lot of support.
If anyone wants to chat about this, I'll be in hatrackchat for the next couple hours.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
The gap between Clinton and Obama is widening out toward 7 k again. I should probably go to sleep. 9 more minutes, mom, promise!
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
I was gonna post something earlier about that youth vote being unpredictable. At any rate, it will be fun to read the media's excuses tomorrow morning.
Personally, I'm glad that Clinton's margin of victory was as small as it was. The race is far from over. And with that, I bid political stuff adieu for a long while. Hopefully. Posts: 1813 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
I'll be taking a break from this for a little while, with school starting I have a bunch of crap to deal with. After tonight I probably won't pop in here much until next Monday or Tuesday when Michigan votes.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
I thought you guys might be interested in this. Here's the Union Leader's (the Manchester paper) article containing the spreadsheet of all the voting data from all the towns and cities.
Also, could you guys please be at least somewhat nicer to Clinton? If this thread is being treated as a main news center/reporting thread (as it seems it is now), it'd be nice not to see a lot of heavy-handed candidate (not even just Hillary) bashing. Or state bashing, for that matter.
Stop picking on my little state, please.
[edited to clarify counties vs. towns/cities]
The counties in NH are Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, Strafford, and Sullivan.
Posts: 14745 | Registered: Dec 1999
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posted
Believe me if Romney, or Obama had broken down and started crying for any reason other then happiness we would be talking about it JUST as much.
Not to mention MANY candidates in preceding pages have been taking hits.
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