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Author Topic: Official Hatrack Recession Thread
Mucus
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Auto repair, maybe.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by Godric 2.0:
quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
quote:
Originally posted by advice for robots:
So...are there any industries that are layoff-proof?

Video gaming industries seem to be extremely recession resistant for the time being.


Didn't EA just cut a bunch of jobs?
I believe they cut about 6% of their workforce back in October, but holiday sales IIRC were comparably just as high this past Christmas as they were a year prior.

edit: Whoops I lied, they cut an additional 11% in February.

But that's EA, they are by far the largest, I'm not sure how Activision/Blizzard is doing, or Bandai, Namco, Capcom, Nintendo, and Sega. I think Sony's problems are beyond just the recession. I also think Nintendo needs to figure out how to solve its' third party problem, or their bubble is going to pop in a very loud way.

[ February 11, 2009, 01:29 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]

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DarkKnight
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I think some companies use the recession as a great way to fire off people they want to get to rid of without people asking too many questions. Some is legitmate cost savings, and others are probably internal politics
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by DarkKnight:
I think some companies use the recession as a great way to fire off people they want to get to rid of without people asking too many questions. Some is legitmate cost savings, and others are probably internal politics

That is certainly plausible, and perhaps even likely, but it would certainly be hard to find evidence of that.
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Omega M.
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I have a job, so I have no immediate worries. I do worry about catastrophe striking and getting kicked out of my condo for being unable to make my mortgage payments; but as my parents own their home, I can always move back in with them, pay my fair share of bills, and simply feel like a loser. [Frown]
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by Omega M.:
I have a job, so I have no immediate worries. I do worry about catastrophe striking and getting kicked out of my condo for being unable to make my mortgage payments; but as my parents own their home, I can always move back in with them, pay my fair share of bills, and simply feel like a loser. [Frown]

I have never ever believed that if parents, siblings, and children all live under the same roof that that is something to be ashamed of. This could be in part to my being raised in China, but I think there is nothing more beautiful than a large family of several generations living together and striving to provide for the physical and emotional needs of all.

Do I live with my parents currently? No, but if things keep getting rough I would be not feel ashamed to move in with them and strive to be a support rather than a burden. Sometimes family is all you've got, but it's also all you need.

There's nothing wrong with somebody going out there and making a life for their own family. But there is also nothing wrong with a family facing life together.

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BlackBlade
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And it looks like I may be getting the gigantic family I so deeply love. My father just received word that he lost his job with Shinsei bank. To be honest I am not entirely torn up over it. My father was miserable at Shinsei. Some of the higher ups gave up their souls long ago. So my parents and youngest sister will likely be moving back to Utah in one to two months. Hopefully my father will find another job, but in any case I will be happy to have my parents nearby.
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Samprimary
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video gaming industries are culling studios at a furious clip.

Right now the market is so fragile that even successful studios can be doomed by a single botched launch. The MMO world in particular has doomed all newcomers from 2008 onward. One hundred percent fatality. Even AoC and WAR are pretty much in a protracted sink.

PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%. Console gaming, short of closed studios for the Wii, are tightening shop. The industry is so mercurial that the risk-takers that try less-than-mainstream titles are existing inches from the tracks.

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Godric 2.0
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Midway Games filed for bankruptcy:

quote:
Midway Games Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday because it doesn't expect to be able to pay back accelerated debt obligations stemming from media mogul Sumner Redstone's sale of a majority stake in the company.

Midway, best known for the "Mortal Kombat" video games, had about $281 million in debt and $167.5 million in assets as of Sept. 30, according to its bankruptcy filing.

In December, Redstone sold his majority stake in Midway -- an interest of about 87.2 percent -- to a company led by private investor Mark Thomas.

In a statement Thursday, Midway Chief Executive and President Matt Booty, who took the company's helm last month, called the bankruptcy filing a "difficult but necessary decision."

"We have been focused on realigning our operations and improving our execution, and this filing will relieve the immediate pressure from our creditors and provide us time for an orderly exploration of our strategic alternatives," he said in a statement.

The company announced in December it is laying off 25 percent of its work force, or about 180 people, and closing a studio in Austin, Texas, to cut costs.


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BlackBlade
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So video games can't be called "recession resistant?" They're still doing better than banks these days.

Also Midway made alot of money from Mortal Kombat in the 90s but it never felt like they put out much else afterward.

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TomDavidson
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quote:
PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%.
Note that this is a completely unfounded statistic, for all that it's bandied around.
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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
quote:
PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%.
Note that this is a completely unfounded statistic, for all that it's bandied around.
Oh?

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_4.html

When you take data like this and combine it with the Various Intangibles and the Known Unknowns expected from markets like korea and china, the extrapolation of 'for every copy of X game sold, 9 copies are pirated' is hard to describe as completely unfounded. :/

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TomDavidson
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Well, heck, I wasn't including the Chinese and Korean markets, because they're just a bit illegitimate. I have trouble believing that anything is ever bought legally in those countries. [Smile] So yeah. *laugh*

That said, almost every estimate I've ever seen of piracy basically counts the number of torrents and files out there being downloaded, a figure that does not correctly represent the number of lost sales. I know a number of pirates who'll download a game two times before they get around to buying it, and then -- two years later -- grab another pirated copy to avoid having to find the CD again the next time they want to reinstall it.

In other words, "9 copies are downloaded illegally for every copy sold" does not mean that nine people didn't pay for the game for every person that did.

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Belle
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I'm thanking God every day that my husband was able to move into something that is much more recession-resistant. Even though our budget has suffered (he makes a good bit less now) I am still grateful it wasn't worse. We shut down our construction sub-contracting business...there was no money to be made there anymore. He moved into teaching at the junior college, and their particular program is sitting very pretty on a new grant and has increased enrollment so there is little danger of him losing his position. Of course, that's just part-time income and he still has his full-time job as a firefighter/paramedic. Rescue services is most definitely recession-proof. People don't stop having fires and medical emergencies in a recession.

As for me, well I picked a bad time to gradute from college with a teaching degree. They is talk our governor may sign a law that increases maximum class size so fewer teachers will be needed. That is a death knell for new teachers seeking jobs.

The only advantage I have is that I'm graduating with a bachelor's degree in May and will be highly qualified and certified because I've pursued a double major in English and secondary education. I am the only person graduating from my university with such a degree - most people get an undergrad major in their subject and get certified through a fifth year program - at the master's level. Every other English graduate from my university this year is graduating at the fifth year level. That means that we have the same certification, but because my degree is lower I'm cheaper to hire. The minimum salary for a master's degreed certified teacher is 6,000 a year more than mine.

So, if a principal needs to hire a new teacher and is looking at me and one of my classmates...he gets the same experience level and the same certification in me for 6 grand less a year. That is what I'm banking on. Of course, if they increase class size, I won't just be competing against my classmates, but also against teachers with experience. I can just hope a principal is willing to take a chance on me.

If not - if I don't get anything, I will sign up to be a long-term sub and a short term day to day sub. Not much money ($60-$75 a day) but better than nothing. That will also get me some contacts in the schools and some more stuff on my resume. If we can afford it, I'll start taking master's classes and apply for an assistantship. Then I can get my master's in English and that would open up the possibility of teaching junior college, with my hubby. They are hiring this year and expecting enrollment to increase.

So I have a plan...first to get a full-time secondary teaching job, if that falls through long-term sub, if that falls through day-to-day sub. If I get anything less than a permanent full-time job, I'll apply at the university and start taking classes. Once I've taken 12 hours I am eligible to take an assistantship and teach there...and that would bring in some money and pay for the rest of my master's. I've already been asked by faculty to do the assistantship and one actually requested me as her research assistant (you can either be a research assistant for a professor or you can teach a class), so I don't think I'd have trouble getting the position. I was told they never have enough applicants. It's not great news...I'd love to be able to say there are plenty of jobs and I'll definitely get one, but it's not terrible news either as I have some options and hubby's two jobs are still steady and reliable.

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DDDaysh
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I was remarkably lucky in the job I found earlier this year. We do work for tax-exempt bond issuers. With all the "bail outs" the government is planning, our business will be just fine.

Still, it is scary to look around at all the people losing their jobs and homes. I wonder if this will mean people will start building smaller homes again. Wouldn't it be remarkable if siblings started sharing bedrooms, and families had only one or two common rooms in a house so they actually had to SEE each other?

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
In other words, "9 copies are downloaded illegally for every copy sold" does not mean that nine people didn't pay for the game for every person that did.

That would be a different figure. One that could likely be extrapolated crudely by looking at the decrease in gaming revenue vs. the increase in gaming popularity, I guess.

It's gotten so bad that some people analyzing Fallout 3 prior to release thought that it might make better business sense to release Fallout only on the Xbox, due to the fact that if it were available on the PC the total profit might ultimately decline due to piracy.

I asked my friends about this and they seemed to agree with this hypothesis: to a man each and every one of them had pirated F3 and had it only been available on the Xbox they would have probably "been forced to" actually buy a copy since they don't bother with console piracy.

Even if this didn't happen in the case of Fallout 3, we are rapidly approaching that sort of point.

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fugu13
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What decline? Video game revenue has increased every year.
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BlackBlade
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Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.

We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.

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scholarette
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So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?
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advice for robots
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I know I need to stop listening to the news in the car on my way home from work. By the time I get home I'm considerably more stressed than when I left work.
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T:man
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Mom gotta job!
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The Rabbit
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.

We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.

This really sucks. Dare I ask if anyone in your big family is still fully employed? Its hard enough to be unemployed when you have family support to fall back on but when hard times hit the whole extended family it even worse. My prayers are with you.

Please, talk to your Bishop. I know that asking for help from the church is probably the last thing you want to do but this is exactly the kind of thing church programs were created for.

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mungagungadin
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Well if any of you folks are from Utah, I'll have you know that your politicians have told my investors in no uncertain terms that their offer to invest in Utah's green infrastructure (to purchase bonds so that green energy and green jobs can grow in Utah) has been roundly rejected, two years running. Every so often (because I'm Mormon) I revive the issues and get another commitment letter and aim it at the Utah econ folks, who say to them again, no, we don't want any investors in Utah.

So, good ruck, and all I can say is, I tried.

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
What decline? Video game revenue has increased every year.

'video game revenue' includes consoles, portables, and cell phones. For the purpose of extrapolation we would have to look at the subsets of that industry most affected by piracy.

Non-MMO PC computer games, in specific. More popular now, less profitable now.

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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.

We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.

This really sucks. Dare I ask if anyone in your big family is still fully employed? Its hard enough to be unemployed when you have family support to fall back on but when hard times hit the whole extended family it even worse. My prayers are with you.

Please, talk to your Bishop. I know that asking for help from the church is probably the last thing you want to do but this is exactly the kind of thing church programs were created for.

Snap, now that I think about it I think only my older sister currently works full time. Only one of my brothers currently works pseudo part time, the other is currently looking for a job. About 6 months ago I had to get groceries using the bishops' storehouse and it really was a last resort, (alot of thing hit us at once.) I'm really trying to throttle my way into the government. At this point I'm even considering the armed forces. I'm really hoping by working hard, being careful with finances, and being smart that me and Tiffany will find our way out of this and get on less tenuous ground.

Thank you so much for your prayers. If all else fails of course I'll turn to the church, but I'd be remiss if I didn't hold out until it's absolutely necessary.

In better news Tiffany gets to work 8 hours tomorrow, and I may have found part time work at the dry cleaning business across the street. I was also contacted by a business looking for employees willing to relocate to Taiwan, there may be something there for me and Tiffany.

[Smile]

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James Tiberius Kirk
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Frontline: Inside the Meltdown

Tonight, on PBS.

--j_k

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BlackBlade
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I've got a job interview on Friday, it's some sort of bone density scanner technician job. Here's hoping it provides sufficient income until I can take that hop skip and jump over to DC.
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fugu13
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Non-MMO PC computer game revenues, as a field, have pretty much only been positive. Aggregated yearly, as far as I know they have never, ever dropped.
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MattP
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From what I've been reading a major problem is that game budgets are so huge that a game has to sell big numbers in order to break even and there are very few real blockbusters. So revenues may increase, but costs are increasing as well and misjudging how your game will be received by the market can bankrupt your company.

http://www.slate.com/id/2210732?nav=wp

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fugu13
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Certainly. That calculus is not an indicator of piracy's impact on gaming revenues, though.
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scifibum
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munga, to be fair, they are rejecting your specific proposals, which is not equivalent to saying "we don't want any investment."

What would be interesting to know is whether proven technology is getting the same treatment. I mean, a power plant is up and running and producing cheap & clean & safe power, and all this can be shown, and still getting stonewalled? That'd be damning.

BlackBlade, is that in a medical setting or one of those mall outfits that sort of skirts the edge of practicing medicine?

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MattP
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
Certainly. That calculus is not an indicator of piracy's impact on gaming revenues, though.

Right. I don't think piracy is as big of a factor as some publishers make it out to be.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by scifibum:

BlackBlade, is that in a medical setting or one of those mall outfits that sort of skirts the edge of practicing medicine?

I'll let you know Friday.
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BlackBlade
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Well the interviews went well. I had to go through three of them and it appears they liked me well enough. Lets hope the other candidate doesn't blow their pants off, as I could only manage their socks.

Looks like I was mistaken alittle about the job. I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.

I've been reading alot about neurofeedback therapy and it looks like it's quite controversial. General consensus seems to be that it does not necessarily help all people, and that placebo could account for much if not all of the perceived benefits. I need to keep researching, but I may accept this job if nothing else comes down the pipeline.

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lem
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I would be careful what you write. I would hate for a boss to see anything but support with such a competitive job market.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by lem:
I would be careful what you write. I would hate for a boss to see anything but support with such a competitive job market.

I actually talked to her about her feelings regarding neurofeedback therapy and she said that she understands that general consensus is not for it, but in her personal experience she has seen results and believes in it.
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MattP
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quote:
I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.

Interesting. Is the "QE" free to get people to sign up for the therapy? The fact that it is commission based suggests that this is the case. If so that could end up being a difficult job for you to do if you are skeptical of the value of the therapy.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by MattP:
quote:
I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.

Interesting. Is the "QE" free to get people to sign up for the therapy? The fact that it is commission based suggests that this is the case. If so that could end up being a difficult job for you to do if you are skeptical of the value of the therapy.
No, these are patients who have already signed up for the therapy and have been referred to me for scheduling.
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James Tiberius Kirk
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The Credit Crisis, Visualized in 11 minutes.

So, how accurate is this video?

--j_k

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fugu13
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Some big glosses, particularly over what sub-prime has meant, and why banks are in a crunch (not because they had a bunch of CDOs they hadn't yet sold off, as the video suggests), and to the fungibility of mortgages (prime mortgages are being sold at premiums), but the video's pretty good overall at communicating one small slice of the credit situation. Housing was just a trigger, there are a number of other issues at hand.
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Tstorm
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We tend to think of education as a field that's recession-proof. It is, relatively speaking. However, in the great state of Kansas, we're having to make cuts, and if forecasts materialize close to expectations, then they won't be insignificant. I'm having trouble keeping track of secondary education, as I'm more in tune with higher education, where I'm employed.

The president of our college told us that for next year, he won't be seeking any raises for administration or staff (full disclaimer: I am staff). Combined with other factors, he says that should allow us to scrape by without eliminating any positions. That was his stated goal at the beginning of this fiasco, and I'll give him props for apparently meeting it. It doesn't bother me in the slightest, to take a little cost-of-living/inflation hit so that someone else doesn't lose their job.

I'm absolutely thrilled at the timing my boss had, in asking for a raise for our office last year. His timing was impeccable. [Smile]

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Belle
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Oh, I never assumed education was recession-proof. Tenured faculty have little to worry about, but everyone else involved in education always has to worry about their jobs.

My hope is that as someone certified and highly qualified at the bachelor's degree level, I will be a cheaper alternative than people who are graduating certified at the master's level. But, I don't for a moment think getting a job is a slam dunk. I am prepared to sub next year, or take a job as an instructional aide if need be. Much less money than a classroom teacher position, but better than what I have now, which is nothing.

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Tstorm
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Oh, my post wasn't aimed at you, Belle, sorry. [Smile] I was just generalizing...

I read your post, and I think your reasoning sounds good. I hope you have good luck with your job hunt. [Smile]

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scholarette
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Maybe this is just based on who I tend to associate with, but it seems like teachers are getting hit hard. A lot of my friends have been laid off and may be rehired (no guarantee), but even the ones laid off and rehired are getting hurt. Because of the break, they are considered new hires- so they accumulate vacation time at the lowest level. Also, this means that they don't have 12 months of continuous work, so no maternity leave. I have a pregnant friend who was not amused.
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James Tiberius Kirk
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quote:
Originally posted by scholarette:
Maybe this is just based on who I tend to associate with, but it seems like teachers are getting hit hard.

This has been my observation too. The teachers' union in my area offer to forgo their annual raise in order to prevent layoffs.

[ Also, good luck on the hunt, Belle. The world always needs more teachers (: ]

--j_k

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Godric 2.0
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Here in Nevada there is talk of cutting teachers salaries by 6%.
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scholarette
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One of my friends who was told 30% chance of being rehired is really upset because right now her school is short two teachers in her department. They are struggling to get by severely understaffed and they are still laying people off. How many kids can you shove in a classroom (and she does science labs, so the shoving more and more kids is even worse)? Of course, when my husband taught, there was no seating chart. The incentive for being early was getting a desk. When they ran out of desks, they had a few chairs and then you just got to sit on the floor.
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Godric 2.0
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In other news, the DOW hit a 11 (or 12?) year low today and AIG is looking for more bailout help.

I gotta stop following my stocks on CNBC. It's making me depressed.

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Mucus
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Yep
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King of Men
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quote:
Originally posted by scholarette:
So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?

Start? It seems to follow from this that natural disasters in Asia and war in the Middle East doesn't make you cry, but a bunch of wealthy Americans losing their jobs and having to go on welfare fo some months does. Are you sure you've got your priorities straight?
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