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Author Topic: Intrade for 2012 elections
SenojRetep
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Thanks, Destineer. My faith in the wisdom of the crowd has been (somewhat) restored.
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Destineer
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Thank you. If you see anything again, let me know. I do like sure-thing bets, and the feeling of superiority that accompanies them.
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Samprimary
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Yup! Was in!

SOLIDARITY IN SMUGNESS

I think I am capped out in the amount of money I wanna spend in intrade though and I mainly deal through intermediaries with free time. Wait, that only makes me sound more smug. okay, we'll go with that. I'll get a terrible italian haircut and wear suspenders like 80's guy on futurama and carry around that giant 1980 cellphone just because.

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Destineer
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If you believe 538, there are lots of good deals right now in the electoral college categories:

Republican nominee to win Michigan
Intrade: 16.5%, 538: 5.4%

Republican nominee to win Wisconsin
Intrade: 38%, 538: 18.4%

Republican nominee to win Ohio
Intrade: 42.3%, 538: 27.4%

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Destineer
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God, I hope the stats shake out the way Silver is predicting them. I stand to make a bundle. My top matched predictions:

Romney to win: short at 42.1%, vs. 25.4% on 538 (glad I got in on that weird surge a week or so ago).

Romney to win Michigan: short at 21.4%, 538 says less than 2%.

Republicans control the Senate: short at 19.5%, 538 says 9.1%

Also been putting some safe money into shorting an electoral college tie at just under 5%; 538 gives this a 0.4% chance of happening.

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Samprimary
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I got in on that weird surge, but it was just accidental coldfeeting on the post-first-debate
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Samprimary
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Just to note though; the jig is up. We shouldn't consider Obama a safe bet, because Nate Silver is an effeminate girly-man.

http://www.thedailydolt.com/2012/10/29/dean-chambers-poll-nate-silver-gay/

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Destineer
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If you want to make a quick buck, Sam, somebody keeps buying up "Republicans to control the Senate" to 25%.
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Samprimary
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I saw that, but I'm really, really just capped on the amount of money I'm going to gamble on these elections. It's a hot buy though :/
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Destineer
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I actually sold some Obama shares so I could buy more of the Senate ones.
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Samprimary
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This is actively the absolute best time to be involved in these political bets, yet again:

- You have a McCain-esque Silver Scenario between the two candidates, if you draw up a map in which you flat-out give Romney every state that Silver gives obama less than a 70% chance in, Obama still wins,

which means that ..

- Romney's situation is extremely dire and just like before he's a safe bet for a lose at present, in a betting pool you can swiftly vacate if something MAJOR turns up to shift the situation,

and at the same time ..

- Cognitive Dissonance is Strong in the Imperiled: when confronted by this grim news, many in the conservative camp work fervently and stridently to create their own, more palatable reality which is more comfortable because it, like Joe Scarborough, makes this election out to be a 'very close race' or even one that slightly favors Romney. Between unskewedpolls and every tortured rasmussen-weighted or primarily popular straight vote based tabulation, many people are working extremely hard to turn themselves into whales by frantically believing what they want to believe, rather than what good science in polls shows.

end result = $$$$$$$$$

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Destineer
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Romney still has a much better shot than McCain had at this point in '08, though.
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Samprimary
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does anyone have a election percentage forecast chart we can compare Obama/Romney against from the 2008 election?
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Destineer
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Just ran some quick numbers. Even if Obama loses the general, as long as he holds the swingish states where he's heavily favored (MI, PA) I should come out in the black. The only thing that would really screw me would be if he lost *and* the Rs somehow took the Senate.
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Lyrhawn
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There are some razor thing Senate races, but you'll want to pay attention to a few of them in particular: Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Massachusetts, and Nebraska, I think. NE and MT are blue expected to go red, but MT might be a surprise win for Jon Tester. IN and MA are red currently razor thin expected to go blue. Maine is red expected to go green (or whatever your color for independents is). MO was blue expected to go red now expected to stay blue. Everything else seems relatively locked up, but those are the ones that'll decide the final outcome.
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Destineer
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Wow, this could not have gone much better. My only losing bets were for the Republican Senate candidate in North Dakota and against Romney in North Carolina. In each case it was just 10 shares or so.
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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by Destineer:
Wow, this could not have gone much better. My only losing bets were for the Republican Senate candidate in North Dakota and against Romney in North Carolina. In each case it was just 10 shares or so.

A fair bet to make. That North Dakota thing shocked everyone. Have they officially called it for the Dem?
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Destineer
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The market is still open now, but it's settled at 99.9%.

Looks like my total returns from Intrade, since January, will be a little bit more than 40%. Pretty dang good compared with even the best stocks, but it's also taxed like ordinary income (from what I can discern) and takes up a lot of my time. Given the big risk factor involved--any chance of losing your entire stake counts as a big risk as far as I'm concerned--I will have to think hard about whether to do this again in '14 and/or '16.

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Samprimary
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I only bet what I can comfortably lose, and I decide each year dependent upon whether or not methodological poll systems (oh fuggit, basically just Nate at this point) are showing a real, real, safe and comfortable situation that other people are creating a fake "it's neck and neck" situation for because they emotionally dislike the projected outcome. I only bet because I am allowed an incredible margin of certainty on a bet I can still sit there and killswitch if a specific trigger is reached.

These conditions were met both elections with Obama. Time alone will tell if I get a similarly bankable situation in the future, when Ron Paul sweeps the electorate like we all know he obviously will.

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Destineer
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Sam, since you've done this before, maybe you can give me a couple tips. How do you handle your withdrawals? And (looking ahead to this spring) how do you report Intrade income on your 1040?
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Samprimary
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At this point? Intermediaries, basically. Like having a combo bookie/broker who manages my bets for me based on my instructions.

As per taxes: for me it used to get reported as short term capital gains, I guess. Don't take any chances with it, though. Intrade explicitly says to consult and employ local tax professionals. This is always worthwhile. Preferably ones that will know how to refer to it as a "prediction market" and not gambling.

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Destineer
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That's right, you're stinkin' rich. [Smile] Sometimes I forget.

I normally do my own taxes, which may be another reason why this won't be worth my time in the long run.

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Samprimary
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aside from vacations and foooooooood and some general entertainment I save and scrimp and am a total miser blatantly taking advantage of family means and keeping my overhead down to nearly nothing, but things like a FA or a tax dude are so so nice when you are doing anything complicated involving taxes.
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Destineer
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quote:
ATTENTION U.S. CUSTOMERS

Monday, Nov 26, 2012

We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.

Unfortunately this means that all US residents must begin the process of closing down their Intrade accounts. We strongly urge you to begin this process immediately:

Step 1: Close out open predictions

You must close out all open predictions before 8:00am GMT (3:00am ET) on December 23, 2012. Instructions on how to close out an open prediction can be found HERE.

If this is not done then by the deadline noted above, Intrade will close out your predictions for you at what we consider to be fair market value as of the daily session close of December 23, 2012.

Fair market value will be determined using current and historical price information, including daily close prices and recent trades. Values will be set at the absolute discretion of Intrade and will not be open for review, discussion or argument our determination of fair market value is final.


Step 2: Withdraw funds

Please note, no customers will be charged the $4.99 monthly fee due on December 1, 2012.

Members have until December 31, 2012, to withdraw all funds from their account. Instructions on how to request a withdrawal can be found HERE.

To help you receive your funds as quickly and easily as possible, the $20 fee normally charged by Intrade for processing a bank wire withdrawal will be waived. Please be aware however that any fees charged by the sending and receiving bank, plus any intermediary bank the transfer is routed through will NOT be refunded by Intrade.


We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment, and we apologize for the short notice and haste required to deal with this. We would like to sincerely thank all US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.

'Twas good while it lasted...
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Lyrhawn
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Frankly I'm shocked it was allowed to go on this long at all, given the law.
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BlackBlade
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Kinda sad every time I felt comfortable cashing in on it, I didn't have the funds to put away. I wonder why it was shut down here.
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Stephan
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So much for the land of the free. I can throw away my life savings at table games in Maryland now, but not on Intrade.
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SenojRetep
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I wonder why it was shut down here.

Because it was sued by federal regulators (CFTC) for trading commodity futures in an unregulated exchange.
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Destineer
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I'm surprised they didn't just close all commodity futures markets, rather than losing their whole US clientele.
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Samprimary
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This is definitely an insurmountable challenge to my Intrading and there is definitely for sure no way I will be able to continue participating in Intrade. Absolutely definitely. As such, I can only hypothesize as to how I would bet on commodity futures markets like Intrade, but this would be purely conjectural, as I will not be participating in Intrade. As a US resident I am not allowed by Intrade to participate in their real-money prediction markets.
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SenojRetep
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InTrade RIP
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BlackBlade
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Wow. I wonder what went down.
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Anthonie
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Wasn't Intrade somewhat teetering on the cusp of being officially legal, at least in jurisdictions like the U.S.? I thought there were attempts to end it as a "gambling" site or as an unapproved platform for futures trading or the like?

Maybe finally something stuck?

I'm sad to see it go. I enjoyed Intrade, especially during political races.

ETA:
I guess I'm behind in the news. Apparently U.S. Intraders had to close their accounts last year following a complaint filed by the U.S. Commodity Trading Futures Commission (CTFC). I suppose that happened after the presidential race ended, since that was when I quit paying any particular attention to Intrade.

Initial reports are indicating Intrade was shutdown in response to some type of "financial irregularities" that came up in an audit.

[ March 11, 2013, 09:37 PM: Message edited by: Anthonie ]

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twinky
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I find it somewhat hilarious that the CTFC would go after InTrade with one hand while ensuring that speculators continue to have complete access to the futures trading markets for actual physical commodities with the other hand. Way to worry about the real problems.
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Stephan
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But as long as I can still spend my entire salary on slot machines and table games here in Maryland, all is right with the world.

Any way to create a 2014 fantasy election game similar to fantasy football?

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by twinky:
I find it somewhat hilarious that the CTFC would go after InTrade with one hand while ensuring that speculators continue to have complete access to the futures trading markets for actual physical commodities with the other hand. Way to worry about the real problems.

ahahaha.
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