posted
...The AI would have emerged years sooner had it not spent so much time trying to determine the difference between the analog world and the "real world" that humans kept referring to...
Posts: 382 | Registered: Jan 2008
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quote:Originally posted by SenojRetep: Romney's advantage in the post-debate national polls of likely voters remains unchanged at 1.0 after several polls released today showed him with a slight lead. He has been tied or leading in every national poll of likely voters released since the debate.
Romney's streak came to an end this morning when Rasmussen (!) released a national poll where he trailed Obama by a point.
In other morning polling news, Obama got a few strong swing state polls today out of Ohio (O+6), Virginia (O+5) and Nevada (O+4). Other polls out of Wisconsin (O+3), Florida (O+1), Virginia (R+1) and Colorado (R+1) suggest the electoral race has tightened significantly since the debate.
<edit>On a slight digression, I just want to point out an annoyance I have with standard polling methodology. This morning, two separate polls of Virginia were released, with a six point difference in the polls' findings. Both polls' results are significantly outside the stated margin of error of the other. One would expect this to happen very infrequently, but in fact it happens all the time, which is why poll aggregation models like Nate Silver's are so necessary for understanding the true state of the race.
My annoyance isn't that different polls find different things; that's to be expected. Rather, it's that they rely on, in my opinion, bad methodology for determining their margins of error, significantly overstating the certainty of their findings. /end digression</edit>
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
I'm right now waffling about going back long on obama and I don't know if i'll short romney again. I'm still pretty sure Obama is going to win but we stepped out of the "sure thing" category and I don't like being anxious about betting on stuff aaaaah.
IN OTHER NEWS
quote:'Mr. Romney figures he can win by simply erasing the Primary Campaign Romney and introducing a new, shinier, kinder and gentler General Election Romney. It’s breathtakingly cynical and suggests total contempt for voters.'
Yeah, well, it works, dunnit? Of course it suggests total contempt of voters. We're contemptible.
quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson: How many unqualified minorities have you had to hire because you had to meet a quota, shakes?
Pretty sure affirmative action doesn't entail hiring people who are unqualified. Pretty sure. Like 100%
Posts: 9912 | Registered: Nov 2005
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quote:Originally posted by shakes: I'm sorry, but the most racist thing that exists in the country today is affirmative action. How many unqualified minorities have I had to hire because I have to meet a quota.....there are certainly some that are qualified, but there are many who get hired because they fill a number and not the best person for the job. That's racism.
I just laugh at all the gibbldegook I see posted by some of you on here. You live in some fantasy land.
Just gonna requote this
if this is a real person who is actually not lying about being involved with hiring minorities then its amazing that he has decided that there's an affirmative action quota and just uses that perception to go on because, you know, he understands things and us poors don't
oh who am i kidding this is an obvious troll, it actually said that affirmative action was the most racist thing in the country
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Samprimary: IN OTHER NEWS
quote:'Mr. Romney figures he can win by simply erasing the Primary Campaign Romney and introducing a new, shinier, kinder and gentler General Election Romney. It’s breathtakingly cynical and suggests total contempt for voters.'
Yeah, well, it works, dunnit? Of course it suggests total contempt of voters. We're contemptible.
Here comes that Etch-a-Sketch.
Posts: 9945 | Registered: Sep 2002
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quote:I'm right now waffling about going back long on obama and I don't know if i'll short romney again. I'm still pretty sure Obama is going to win but we stepped out of the "sure thing" category and I don't like being anxious about betting on stuff aaaaah.
There are still a lot of good sure-thing bets on the state electoral votes. Unless you think Michigan or Pennsylvania have a 20+% chance of going to Romney...
Posts: 4600 | Registered: Mar 2000
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posted
Yeah. I;m really proud of Biden. I was afraid that going into the debate, Ryan would outclass Biden in speaking skills. But Biden seems to be on the attack. He is agressively calling out the descrepancies in Ryan and Romney's plan, Good for him!
Posts: 87 | Registered: Dec 2011
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posted
I liked him going for the throat on foreign policy. While I'm far from happy with quite a lot of American (not just Obama's, really as long as I've been alive and aware really, but right now it's his) foreign policy, but it was nice to see him bluntly calling Ryan out and belaboring just how NOT different the Romney 'plan' is, aside from 'more military' and 'don't outsource to the UN'. Without ratcheting up US material involvement, how ELSE would Ryan go about it?
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
Biden showed incredibly poor form throughout the entire debate. His mocking laughs and sneers were very undignified. I've never believed him to be the caliber of person who should hold a position of leadership (let alone one as high as vice president) but tonight his character really shined through.
Posts: 570 | Registered: Sep 2009
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posted
You know, capaxinfiniti, if you were interested in at least appearing (much less actually BEING) someone who at least made a head fake towards objectivity...rather than 'he was mean, and that shows poor character, and that indicates he shouldn't be a leader'. Shall we roll back the pages of the calendar to the primaries and talk about mean behavior? Anyway, as a counterpoint, there are plenty of people who are like myself very likely to vote Obama in a month, but who will also freely admit 'Romney had a solid and even a decisive debate victory', even when taking issue with how he did it.
Ryan's a tough guy. If he can't hold his bladder at an old man being 'mean', well the kitchen door is easily accessible and the sooner he uses it the better. But of course he won that debate in your eyes well before it ever took place.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Emreecheek: I think it's great that most people who are dead-set against Obama can only say "Biden was a meanie!"
I'll take it.
Because I didn't wish to say more doesn't mean I couldn't. It was an observation. My comment didn't even rise to the level of an argument. If you feel my comment can be summarized as "Biden was a meanie" then you have much to learn about interpersonal communication as well as the influences of public perception.
Posts: 570 | Registered: Sep 2009
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posted
I believe you could say more against Biden (that anyone could read in a given GOP mailer), but you complained that he was too mean using fancier language and that it reflected badly on his character.
Poor Ryan. He's ill prepared for that mean!
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
No, no, no. When Romney interrupts or talks over his opponent and the moderator he's forceful, alpha male and presidential. When Biden does it he's rude. Keep it straight.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Chris Bridges: No, no, no. When Romney interrupts or talks over his opponent and the moderator he's forceful, alpha male and presidential. When Biden does it he's rude. Keep it straight.
Romney didn't interrupt his opponent the way Biden did, and he definitely was not condescending the way Biden was, with his smirking and referring to Ryan as "my friend".
Posts: 2054 | Registered: Nov 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Chris Bridges: No, no, no. When Romney interrupts or talks over his opponent and the moderator he's forceful, alpha male and presidential. When Biden does it he's rude. Keep it straight.
The difference is that, to my recollection, Romney seldom interrupted his opponent, although there were occasional moments of cross-talk. He did frequently talk over the moderator, but I think that is a relatively minor breach of debate etiquette, particularly when the moderator himself has since said he wanted to give the candidates freedom and leeway in their responses. If both candidates do this, you get a meandering, undirected debate, but still a debate.
Biden on the other hand refused to let Ryan speak at several points throughout the debate, steamrolling him to the point where any assertion Ryan made was immediately rebutted with no accommodation of normal debate civility. If both candidates do this you no longer have a debate you have a shouting match.
That said, I don't think the push back of "Biden laughed too much" or "Biden was condescending" or "Biden interrupted repeatedly" is very interesting. He did, and he was, and the debate was less than it could have been because of it. But in the end I think both sides did a good job of articulating their positions. Snap polls post-debate show that viewers' opinions were about even (in two of three, Ryan was deemed to have won narrowly; in one Biden was seen to have won comfortably) which suggests that both sides were able to do what they needed.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Chris Bridges: If your opponent is openly lying, how should one react in a debate?
I think, for instance, Romney's approach to Obama's continued insistence that he had proposed a $5T tax cut* was appropriate. To my recollection, Romney didn't interrupt Obama at any of the several points when he made the assertion; rather, he waited until Obama finished and then rebutted it.
Compare that to this transcript of Joe Biden talking over Paul Ryan during the Medicare discussion:
quote:REP. RYAN: Here’s the problem. They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar turning Medicare into a piggy bank for “Obamacare”. Their own actuary from the administration came to Congress and said one out of six hospitals and nursing homes are going to go out of business as a result of this.
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: That’s not what they said.
REP. RYAN: Seven point four million seniors are projected to lose the current Medicare Advantage coverage they have. That’s a $3,200 benefit cut.
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: That didn’t happen.
REP. RYAN: What we’re saying --
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: More people signed up.
REP. RYAN: These are from your own actuaries.
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: More -- more -- more people signed up for Medicare Advantage after the change.
REP. RYAN: What -- what they’re --
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: No -- nobody is getting shut down.
REP. RYAN: Mr. Vice President, I know --
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: No -- no -- (inaudible) --
REP. RYAN: Mr. Vice President, I know you’re under a lot of duress -- (laughter) -- to make up for lost ground -- (laughter) -- but I think people would be better served if we don’t keep interrupting each other.
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN: Well, don’t take all the four minutes, then.
If Romney had done this to Obama every time he tried to make a claim Romney wanted to dispute (or vice versa), the debate would have quickly devolved into bickering. Which is, to some extent, what happened last night.
*Whether this is a lie or not is obviously a point of contention; personally I think Obama was closer to the truth in this case than Romney was, but Romney obviously felt it was a misrepresentation of his plan.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
I felt the debate was actually a debate when its more like a conversation; ala the Stewart-O'Reilly debate.
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quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: I felt the debate was actually a debate when its more like a conversation; ala the Stewart-O'Reilly debate.
In conversation we generally take turns speaking. It's actually kind of what allows us to converse.
I really don't want to make a big deal out of this, though. Like I said, it was impolite, but so what. That's life. Move on. Republicans who will spend the day trying to spin a 'bully' angle on Biden are wasting their time making a point that is irrelevant to the broader question of who we should elect.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
I listened to a few minutes of Rush Limbaugh and he was complaining that "Joey was his crazy self being all rude and grumpy." Rush Limbaugh was complaining that someone in politics should not be rude, that it is a bad thing. He said you shouldn't be rude in politics, but respectful. Mr. Ryan, he said, was respectful and polite.
I came back 45 minutes later after lunch and Mr. Limbaugh was proclaiming that all liberals and Democrats loved Twighlight--you can't be much more rude than that insult--and then he continued to complain that Vice President Biden is too rude.
posted
I don't listen to Limbaugh, but I'd be surprised if he claimed he was never rude.
And I don't think him being rude is actually an argument against his idea that it's bad to be a rude politician.
Posts: 3580 | Registered: Aug 2005
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*I've seen some complaints on-line that the CNBC snap poll wasn't methodologically sound; I've also seen complaints that both CNN/ORC polls were demographically skewed. I haven't really evaluated those complaints, other than to register that they're out there. Also, this article lists several other 'snap polls' alongside those above, along with different numbers for the CNBC poll, but the three I pointed to are the ones I've seen repeatedly listed elsewhere. I don't know why The Examiner's numbers are different, or why they're reporting more snap polls, although the warning that the numbers could change because some of the polling is ongoing suggests that the polls are likely on-line opinion surveys, which are more susceptible to self-selection bias, as well as sock-puppetry.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
To give my take from my competitive debate background. Vice-President Biden won the debate, but it won't be a turning point for the broader election.
For the debate itself, I think Biden easily won on substance and on style it came out as largely a wash. For substance, let's be honest here. Most of the debate was on foreign policy. While Congressman Ryan didn't make himself look like a fool, the guy is an economic policy wonk. When you debate foreign policy with Mr. Biden, you're going to struggle. On the economic message I think Mr. Biden also had a distinct edge up until the closing minutes of the debate. Even though the question posed was "what would you say to a person who thinks this campaign is overly negative," Mr. Ryan's remark--while incredibly negative--was an uncontested flood of economic claims. In the end, substance wise, I give it to Mr. Biden.
For style, Mr. Biden took a risky gamble, and I think it ended up being a wash. Mr. Biden, like Governor Romney, went for an aggressive stance. When a debater does this, they're trying to force you to debate on their terms. It's easier to beat your opponent when you have them playing the game by your rules. The way to beat someone as aggressive as Mr. Romney or Biden is to be calm, collected, and confident. To the President's credit in his debate against Mr. Romney, he did read the debate properly and tried to remain cool and collected, but his presentation wasn't confident. He wouldn't keep eye-contact with Mr. Romney, he stumbled on his words, and he seemed flustered. By not seeming confident against a person exuding confidence, it paints the image of defeat.
Mr. Ryan, on the other hand, tried to play it in both worlds. At some points of the debate, he was calm and collected. The reason this strategy works is because it creates a contrast between the two. If you don't seem flustered, the aggressive person comes off as petulant and immature. It seems like they resort to aggression to compensate for a lack of substance. As my coach told me years ago, the more angry your opponent becomes, the calmer you become.
Unfortunately for Mr. Ryan, he did bite back with his own aggression from time to time. When you are also aggressive, you can't maintain the narrative of complete cool. I don't care if the Vice-President started it, when you interrupt to point out Mr. Biden's gaffes or to contest claims against your Medicare plan, you've become guilty of "rudeness" as well. You played the game that Mr. Biden wanted you to play, and he beat you at it.
I say it ends up a wash though because, for the most part, Mr. Ryan did remain calm. Enough that I think it's fair game to call Mr. Biden objectively more rude.
As for the broader political implications of Mr. Biden's debate performance, I think that at best he'll stop the hemorrhaging of support for the President. Those who were somewhat inclined to very inclined to support the President will be less likely to jump ship into the undecided camp. I don't think that the Vice-President will have changed the minds of any undecideds or leaning for Mr. Romney.
That being said, had Mr. Ryan won the debate, it would have cemented the narrative that Mr. Obama's campaign has fallen apart and I think that the trend of support for Mr. Romney would have continued unabated.
Either way, Mr. Romney's trend of support means that the ball in in the President's court now. If he wants to turn things around and get people to return to his camp, he needs to blow the roof off of the townhall. My suggestion? Stop using Senator Kerry as your stand in for Mr. Romney and get the Vice President in that role. The President needs to seem confident under pressure. He doesn't need to become more aggressive to win the debate, he just needs to make Mr. Romney's aggression look petulant.
Posts: 1831 | Registered: Jan 2003
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posted
I think Biden's technique was one that resonated with lots of younger people in his base. These were the people, I think, most disheartened by Obama's prior performance. So, I don't think he was trying to win over swing voters, I think he was trying to re-energize the base. And it worked. Ryan played along well enough to give Biden enough material to be legitimately exasperated about.
Posts: 196 | Registered: Jun 2009
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quote:Originally posted by Emreecheek: I think it's great that most people who are dead-set against Obama can only say "Biden was a meanie!"
I'll take it.
Because I didn't wish to say more doesn't mean I couldn't. It was an observation. My comment didn't even rise to the level of an argument. If you feel my comment can be summarized as "Biden was a meanie" then you have much to learn about interpersonal communication as well as the influences of public perception.
And now you're a meanie!
Posts: 196 | Registered: Jun 2009
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posted
In what can only be described as an unsolvable mystery, people are determining who won the debate largely based on their political affiliation!
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Samprimary: In what can only be described as an unsolvable mystery, people are determining who won the debate largely based on their political affiliation!
I approve this message.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Samprimary: In what can only be described as an unsolvable mystery, people are determining who won the debate largely based on their political affiliation!
quote:Originally posted by Samprimary: In what can only be described as an unsolvable mystery, people are determining who won the debate largely based on their political affiliation!
quote:Originally posted by Rakeesh: Ryan's a tough guy. If he can't hold his bladder at an old man being 'mean', well the kitchen door is easily accessible and the sooner he uses it the better. But of course he won that debate in your eyes well before it ever took place.
quote:I believe you could say more against Biden (that anyone could read in a given GOP mailer), but you complained that he was too mean using fancier language and that it reflected badly on his character.
Poor Ryan. He's ill prepared for that mean!
I didn't say anything about Ryan or how well he handled Biden's disrespectful (and, frankly, childish) behavior and I certainly didn't decide who won the debate before it happened. You're pinning an argument and assertions on me that I didn't make and/or you threw up a straw man just so you could get off a few pithy comments. But whatever. Your response was no surprise to me and others have already articulated why my observation was relevant so I feel no need to belabor the issue.
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posted
And why should you? Your comments speak for themselves. They don't say anything. But by God, they speak for themselves.
Posts: 9912 | Registered: Nov 2005
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posted
let me bet a million internet dollars that capax thinks that biden lied more and that ryan was mostly truthful
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Biden wasn't performing for the masses. He was performing for the base. And based on that, he blew it out of the water.
After Obama's performance, where the liberal reaction was "why didn't he say __________!?" Biden said everything single thing everyone wanted Obama to say. Now Obama can tone it down for the next two debates but still be aggressive. There's a way to call someone's BS without being a dick about it. It lies in the middle of Obama's first performance and Biden's.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Samp, I will see your million Internet dollars, on the grounds that you will never be able to prove that capax has independent thoughts.
Posts: 37449 | Registered: May 1999
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quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson: Samp, I will see your million Internet dollars, on the grounds that you will never be able to prove that capax has independent thoughts.
posted
hey it is entirely hypothetically possible he could take a nuanced comprehensive political position that wasn't just basically point by point regurgitation from redstate-level poliblogs. hypothetically
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
It won't take long for Fox News or someone similar to suggest that it was actually an Obama supporter just trying to gin up sympathy for his campaign.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Or a random vandal, or someone shooting at someone else, or... anything, really. Crazed disgruntled conservative is the best bet, but it's by no means a sure thing. Unless police catch the guy, it's sort of a non-starter. Let's just agree across the aisle that whoever did it was a bad person.
On that note, I respect the HQ representative for not politicizing the attack.
Posts: 3580 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
I think it's pretty terrible to prophecy on what your opposition is going to do in response to something.
Is it possible, even likely? Yes. But both sides could play that game, and since we are already writing each other's scripts, why even both conversing?
Thank God nobody was hurt, I hope the police find the perpetrator.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: It won't take long for Fox News or someone similar to suggest that it was actually an Obama supporter just trying to gin up sympathy for his campaign.
posted
okay, okay, i'm done having cold feet, I'm ahead so much already that i'm just gonna go back in on obama
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: I think it's pretty terrible to prophecy on what your opposition is going to do in response to something.
Is it possible, even likely? Yes. But both sides could play that game, and since we are already writing each other's scripts, why even both conversing?
Thank God nobody was hurt, I hope the police find the perpetrator.
The thing is, they've done it before. This exact thing happened four years ago, and that's exactly what they did.
There's nothing terrible about taking past events and using them to guess at what happens in the future.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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