J Kerry -- 188 total California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 Dist of Col 3 Illinois 21 Maine [3?] Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 New Jersey 15 New York 31 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3
Who is left, how much do they have, and when do the polls close (or when can the tally be expected)?
7:30pm Eastern Time Ohio 20 *** swing state
8pm Eastern Time Florida 27 *** swing state New Hampshire 4 Pennsylvania 21 *** swing state
9pm Eastern Time Arizona 10 Colorado 9 Michigan 17 *** swing state Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5 Wisconsin 10 *** swing state
10pm Eastern Time Iowa 7 Montana 3 Nevada 5
11pm Eastern Time Hawaii 4 Oregon 7 Washington St 11
1am Eastern Time Alaska 3
[ November 03, 2004, 12:20 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
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Ohh, well I don't have TV so I guess there's our problem . I was mostly going off of Sara's list, it highlights the swing states, and it doesn't highlight NM.
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The remaining precincts in Fla are mostly Democratic, but the remaining votes to be counted aren't enough to close the gap even if they ALL went Kerry. Not counting absentee ballots.
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CNN on swing states and likely votes, as per Oct 22 article .
quote:President Bush seems to have a lock on 176 electoral votes from twenty states: Alabama - 9, Alaska -3, Arizona -10, Georgia -15, Idaho -4, Indiana -10, Kansas -6, Kentucky -8, Louisiana -9, Mississippi -6, Montana -3, Nebraska -5, North Dakota -3, Oklahoma -7, South Carolina -3, Tennessee -11, Texas -34, Utah -5, Virginia -13 and Wyoming -3.
Senator Kerry seems to have a lock on 153 electoral votes in ten states and the District of Columbia: California -55, Connecticut -7, Delaware -3, Hawaii -4, Illinois -21, Maryland -10, Massachusetts -12, New York -31, RI-4, Vermont -3 and Washington, D.C. -3.
Six states with 51 electoral votes tilt toward Bush: Arizona -6, Colorado -9, Missouri -11, Nevada -5, North Carolina -15 and West Virginia -5.
But six states with 63 electoral votes lean toward Kerry: Maine -3 (note that Maine apportions its four electoral votes, and one vote still appears to be up for grabs), Michigan -17, Minnesota -10, New Jersey -15, Oregon -7 and Washington -11.
Suppose all the tilting states indeed go in the direction in which they are tilting. That gives Bush/Cheney 227 electoral votes, and Kerry/Edwards 216 votes.
There are still eight true swing states. In total, they have 95 electoral votes: Iowa -7, Florida -27, Maine -1, New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, Ohio -20, Pennsylvania -21 and Wisconsin -10.
It is in these states that election 2004 will ultimately be resolved -- either in the voting booths, or in the courts. And note that none of these states, alone -- even Florida, with its 27 votes -- will give either candidate a win.
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Jon Stewart put all those states together on one map, as their own big state, and called them Ohiowa. (I think)(funny whatever it was)
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So, if the non-dead-heat states go as expected, Bush/Cheney will have 227 electoral votes, and Kerry/Edwards 216.
Under those assumptions, Bush will need 43 more and Kerry will need 54.
The dead-heaters (coming in to the race): Iowa -7, Florida -27, (likely Bush?) Maine -1, (likely Bush?) New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, Ohio -20, Pennsylvania -21 (went to Kerry) Wisconsin -10.
[ November 02, 2004, 11:59 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
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Kerry's lead in New Hampshire has steadily increased from 6,000 to 8,000 over the past 2 hours. 3/4 of the votes are in.
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Florida is a sure thing, my Ohio prediction is looking better now, a 4 percent spread with 70% reporting (still not anything like sure of course, but I'm keeping my prediction). Colorado is also going Bush it appears.
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Urban areas with dense populations tend to both go Democratic and take the longest to count. That is one of the reasons that early results tend to look more Republican than later. (We are seeing the effect of this, e.g., in Milwaukee.)
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Kerry could gain another 100,000 votes in heavily democratic Cuyahoga county, Ohio. Still another 33% votes untallied.
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Michigan is close... but wayne county is going 3-1 for Kerry, and less then half done. Kerry will pick up another 100-150k votes on Bush just in that county.
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Heck, Fox's website called Washington State at 11:01 p.m. for Kerry. Yet strangely, they have yet to call Cali for him.
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Their models are also based on county. 5% spread, if its in counties that are more republican then other counties, means its locked up for kerry.
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CNN now has Ohio at 51 Bush and 49 Kerry at 74% reporting. The urban areas are coming in.
Columbus - Franklin Co (53 Kerry, 47 Bush, with 91% reported) Cincinnati - Hamilton Co (51 Kerry, 49 Bush, with 31% reported) Cleveland - Cuyahoga Co (63 Kerry, 37 Bush, with 67% reported) Toledo - Lucas Co (62 Kerry, 38 Bush, with 76% reported)
[ November 03, 2004, 12:16 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
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