quote:So what is your characterization of the white democrats who certainly did vote for Obama in SC? Is it just the youth vote?
I imagine that they were the same white democrats who voted for Dean and Bradley before him. Obama is a fine candidate, regardless of race. My differences with him are the differences I share with most Americans, but now that Kucinich has dropped out, I'll probably end up voting for him anyway.
In South Carolina, I still think that the big story is turnout. Even if everyone voted in a predictable way, until one can explain why so many people felt invested enough to get up and vote this year as opposed to 2004, I can't tell what's going on.
posted
True. I understand your point that there aren't a lot of independents in SC. However, Republican numbers may have been lower because there were a lot of people not yet decided within the Republican side.
P.S. I do think these candidates are more energizing than in 2004.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Irami Osei-Frimpong said: "It's a victory, but I don't know how crushing it is."
A 28% margin of victory for Sen. Obama, with a total more than double the total percentage won by Sen Clinton, would seem to be pretty crushing!
Obama still won 1/4 of the white vote--the rest of the white vote was split equally between Clinton and Sen. Edwards. Obama also won the majority of the young vote.
If this is not crushing, then I must ask, how do you define crushing?
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
| IP: Logged |
quote: If this is not crushing, then I must ask, how do you define crushing?
Anything over a third of the white vote, especially among the baby boomers. In a world where blacks inhabit 1/2 of the electorate, Obama's victory would have been crushing. If Hilary Clinton can write off this loss and not even blink, which I think she can, then it's not crushing, it's just the South Carolina Democratic Primary. I go entire years forgetting that S. Carolina is part of the U.S. It would have been different even if it were North Carolina. Like I said before, when Romney captures an enormous percent of the Utah Republican electorate, that's not going to be a crushing victory, either. It's a gimme.
Posts: 5600 | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged |
Meanwhile Hillary is campaigning in Florida in yet another example of the Clintons' scorched earth policy, "If I don't win the nomination, I'll make sure that the Democratic candidate loses the GeneralElection."
quote:Anything over a third of the white vote, especially among the baby boomers. In a world where blacks inhabit 1/2 of the electorate, Obama's victory would have been crushing. If Hilary Clinton can write off this loss and not even blink, which I think she can, then it's not crushing, it's just the South Carolina Democratic Primary. I go entire years forgetting that S. Carolina is part of the U.S. It would have been different even if it were North Carolina. Like I said before, when Romney captures an enormous percent of the Utah Republican electorate, that's not going to be a crushing victory, either. It's a gimme.
Ahh but see here is the thing, Clinton was polling at nearly a 20% lead in the days and weeks as far back as November compared to Obama and he then won the primary by 27%. What's more, Jesse Jackson won SC in 1984 and 1988 with only 7% of the white vote, and yet, that figure has been more than tripled by Obama (24-25%).
Obama crushed Clinton in this primary and she knows it, which is why we now see her in Florida and Tennessee (where she gave her stump speech and gave one line to Obama) trying to mitigate what happened in SC. Now mind you, I think Clinton will win big on Super Tuesday, I think Bill Clinton's politics work and are working right now, especially because when you run the campaign of change, it is very difficult to fight back against what the Clinton's are throwing at Obama right now without getting off message and abdicating that message entirely. Obama can attempt to remain above the fray all he likes but John Kerry tried that with the swift-boating commercials of 2004 and the damage those commercials caused lost Kerry the presidency, which means that he must mix it up with Hilary. And when that happens he is going to lose...
The Clinton's are just much better at this stuff.
Posts: 457 | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
I don't think she'll win THAT big on Hyper Tuesday. No state in the Democratic primary is winner takes all. Even if she technically wins every state, it won't be by that big of a margin, and I imagine he'll probably take quite a few of those states. If he can nip at her heels the entire way, she won't be able to secure a victory, and if her advantages shrink like they've been shrinking in other states, she won't win nearly as big as she thinks. It'll be a knife fight for delegates.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
So now Sen. Clinton is campaigning against the Democratic National Committee, which stripped Florida of its delegates as punishment for moving up the date of its primary. I don't think the DNC or RNC should be able to strip states of their delegates, and I look forward to a floor fight at the convention over this; but Hillary is openly opposing the Democratic Party establishment. Will this affect whether she gets the remaining "super-delegates" that have not yet committed?
The Democratic Party has a Kennedy wing and a Clinton Wing, vying for control of the party. Since the Kennedy wing seems to be moving to endorse Sen. Obama, this could make it an open conflict between the two.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
| IP: Logged |
quote:. I don't think the DNC or RNC should be able to strip states of their delegates
I can understand this sentiment, but all these primary elections are actually about is someone's priviledge of representing the party in the General Election. Yes they are critical to who will run for president, but it's not unfair to say the parties "own" these primaries. The parties also decide how many delegates come from each state, whether they are proportional, and the delegate numbers are adjusted according to how the state performed in the last election (from the parties' viewpoints.)
I'm not a big fan of the 2 party system, but this is not such an egregious situation. (Not egregious in this case specifically meaning not surprising given who we are talking about).
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
I think Super Tuesday could be a big challenge for Obama, just because Clinton seems to have the larger organization overall. With that and Bill stumping for her it's probably easier for her to campaign in so many states in a short time. Hopefully he's gotten enough nationwide attention now to make up for that somewhat.
Anyone have a full list of which states have their primaries on Tuesday? (I'm looking in your direction, Lyrhawn. )
posted
The Conventions should toss out all of the delegates from states with primaries or caucuses before June.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged |
posted
Kansas hasn't had a primary since 1992. So we're having a caucus. However, I have no idea how to do a caucus, or where to go, or even IF I go (or if it is just party leaders, etc.) Because before it never really mattered - there would be one clear GOP leader and that's the direction Kansas went. This time it is close, and I'm wondering if there is something I need to "do" for the caucus
Posts: 9538 | Registered: Aug 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Hillary does have the party and campaign machinery on her side, but don't count out some of those statewide endorsements Obama has gotten from Senators, notably Teddy Kennedy. Kennedy has a nation wide infrastructure, not just in Massachusetts. Remember these guys have to get elected every seven years, and Congressmen every two, so they have state or district wide apparatus in place to get out the vote and carpet the neighborhoods with volunteers. It'll be essential for Obama to get that kind of support.
As for next Tuesday, the states vary depending on the party.
Democrats/Republicans:
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Deleware Georgia Illinois Massachusetts Minnesota Missouri New Jersey New York North Dakota Oklahoma Tennessee Utah
Democrats only:
American Samoa! Idaho Democrats abroad Kansas New Mexico
Republicans only:
Montana West Virginia
I think that covers it.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
Ted Kennedy has thrown his support behind Obama. Success begets success it would seem. All three candidates have been vying for his support for quite some time now. I think Clinton needed Kennedy's support more then any of the three.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by Farmgirl: Kansas hasn't had a primary since 1992. So we're having a caucus. However, I have no idea how to do a caucus, or where to go, or even IF I go (or if it is just party leaders, etc.) Because before it never really mattered - there would be one clear GOP leader and that's the direction Kansas went. This time it is close, and I'm wondering if there is something I need to "do" for the caucus
FG -
From what I understand, you need to be registered to vote and be a registered Republican. If you aren't registered as a Republican, you can go here to find your local election officer and register or find out if you have registered.
After that, the caucus is on February 9th, at 10am (Saturday), and you go to whichever caucus site is yours, preferably prior to 10am becuase you have to sign in and get verified (they check to make sure you're a registered Republican) before it starts, so, I'd suggest getting there at 930 at the latest. People are expecting a big turnout. At that point they'll explain the process when you get there, I'm not sure how it works.
Rabbit -
Whoops. I did mean six. Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
Yeah - I am registered as a Republican. I also e-mailed them to get more information on how things proceed. I found their website to be sorely lacking in useful information.
Posts: 9538 | Registered: Aug 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Illinois is nice that way. You don't have to be registered Republican to vote in the Republican primary.
Posts: 12266 | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
Michigan is that way too. I like open primaries, it gives you the chance to change your mind without having to change the paperwork.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
I guess Romney's selling "it's the economy, stupid" rather well. He may have been being honest, but McCain probably could have come up with something better than "I'm never, ever leaving Iraq" as a stumping point. Dang. I'd really hoped McCain would sew Florida up heading into Super Tuesday. He still might. There is some folks undecided.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
McCain is up 12 points in California over Romney, and Romney is outspending McCain at least two to one in Florida. He's the only candidate who can afford to run ads in all 10 major media markets there.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
Right, but that didn't buy him New Hampshire or Iowa. Romney's immigration stance is what's costing him in California. You can have all the ads you want, but if people don't want to hear what you're saying, it can work against you.
I kept dreaming about the Florida primary all night. Lots of fraud allegations. Then I dreamed I fell in a frozen pond and woke up.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Maybe Giuliani isn't all out of the game. There is a half million early votes (each for Rep and Dem) that were cast from before he was in third place, and the rancor between McCain and Romney might turn people back to Giuliani. I guess you never know.
Still, I'm hoping for a McCain win.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Ain't it time to change the title to "...Florida Primary..."?
quote:...FLORIDA is entitled to 0 delegates Democratic National Convention because the date of this Primary has been held to have violated Party rules...
Prior to the sanctioning, Florida would have been determining the pledging of 185 of 210 National Convention delegates [leaving 25 uncommitted superdelegates] to presidential contenders through the results of the voting in this Primary: 121 delegates total would have been pledged based on results of voting in each of the State's 25 Congressional Districts and 64 delegates would have been pledged based on the results of the voting Statewide;" a mandatory 15 percent threshold would have been required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.
quote:57 delegates to the Republican National Convention from FLORIDA are to be pledged among presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in this Primary: all 57 delegates will be pledged to the highest vote-getter among the Republican presidential contenders in the Primary Statewide.
FLORIDA has been penalized half of its...delegation of 114 for holding its principal delegate distribution event...in violation of Party rules...
...(...if the sanctions noted above are not enforced), 114 delegates will be pledged to presidential contenders: 75 delegates total from each of the State's 25 Congressional Districts (the highest vote-getter among the presidential contenders in a given Congressional District winning all 3 delegates from that District) and 39, including the 3 Party Leader ex officio seats, pledged to the highest vote-getter among the Republican presidential contenders in the Primary Statewide.
quote:Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts appear to be neck-and-neck in the Republican primary. If McCain wins in Florida, his status as the national front-runner will be cemented.
If Romney comes out on top, the battle for the GOP presidential nomination will be up in the air.
(from CNN's headline story).
I can understand the reticence of Republicans to admit that Romney is in the lead (and has been since Wyoming). We don't like his odds against Clinton, and Romney/Obama is probably the race that Bloomberg would jump into.
Well, really, I think Bloomberg might jump into Romney/Clinton too. If McCain is nominated, there's not really much room for Bloomberg, in my opinion.
posted
I see Bloomberg jumping into Clinton Romney befreo Obama Romney. His getting involved will depend on the results of his polling and who is running.
I don't care who wins Florida on the GOP side, the nomination is still up in the air, and CNN is on crack if they think a Florida win seals the whole thing up.
Sorry aspectre, the title is now changed.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
Close. McCain territory in the south hasn't really started reporting yet, which means he's due for a surge, and a lot of the territory that Romney was hoping to smash McCain in actually came up as a dead heat.
The panhandle hasn't been counted at all really yet, and that's considered more conservative Romney territory.
CNN by the way has a very impressive interface for breaking down the votes by county. It's not accessible to people at home, but, the touch screen they have in the studio is pretty nifty.
The Democrats don't much matter, but Hillary is winning by about 160,000 votes with 48% of the vote to Obama's 30%. I didn't know that Obama and Edwards even had their names on the ballot, but I guess they changed their minds after Michigan. I'll be pissed if the DNC decides to seat Florida and Michigan after Obama and Edwards didn't campaign there. I think that'd be close to cheating, or at least a concerted effort to help Hillary.
She'll spend a lot of time trying to make this look like a huge victory, and it'll be interesting to see if people fall for it.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I'll narrow this down to the fight between McCain and Romney, since most pundits are saying the winner of Florida will be raised up on a throne of gold. With 44% reporting:
McCain (35%): 388,129 Romney (32%): 352,705
Most people are saying that if McCain loses, he'll just run out of money. I think that's important, but, as the earlier states have shown, money can't buy you everything in a race, and sometimes doesn't matter at all. Giuliani spend upwards of $30 million in Florida, and the more people heard, the less they liked him. And they say that if McCain wins, his momentum will carry him to the nomination. I think regardless, Rudy Giuliani has to know he's done.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I found the last question of this exit poll pretty funny. It asks whether you think various of the candidates would win in November. 95% of the people who voted for Huckabee believed Huckabee could win in November. Where's that air horn when you need it?
I guess it would be horrible if the DNC gave the delegates back, but it was pretty horrible for them to take them away in the first place.
Any chance they'd let them hold another primary on their originally scheduled date?
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
That's certainly an idea. I think a lot of people would cry foul, but, if they said a month from Super Tuesday that we could hold another one, let the candidates campaign here and actuall have their names on the ballot, well, I think I'd be okay with it. But it will never happen. I'm not even sure it's legal.
Newsflash:
There're rumors that Giuliani and McCain are in talks to have Giuliani endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
CNN projects that John McCain is the winner, which I think is a safe bet at this point.
pooka -
One reporter has it from the McCain leadership, and one reporter has it from the Giuliani leadership. The candidates haven't had the talk yet, but their reps are chatting.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I don't know about the interface, but county by country numbers are available on the CNN website.
I never heard that Obama and Edwards's names would/might not be on the Florida ballot. As far as I know, they were on it from the get-go. But I don't believe either of them came here and campaigned.
Posts: 13680 | Registered: Mar 2002
| IP: Logged |
posted
Giuliani's endorsement of McCain would go a long way toward ending this thing, effectively. Giuliani still had several "smaller" eastern states, including New jersey, which has 54 delegates as winner take all. Most of the other winner take all states for Super Tuesday are already leaning toward McCain. My kindest estimate for Romney has him with about 226 delegates at the end of Super Tuesday, to a conservative estimate of 511 for McCain (with 297 going elsewhere).
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
I've checked some of the county by county stuff, but in their studio they have a giant plasma touch screen with a big color coded map of Florida, and you can touch counties so it zooms in, tells you the % of the vote reported and who has what, just like on the CNN website, but it's really cool looking and user friendly. It's just neat I wish I had one.
I must have been misinformed. I thought Florida was like Michigan in that Clinton was the only one with her name actually on the ballot.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I predict the stock market will be happier tomorrow. I doubt the dow will get back to 13 k any time soon, but I think things may settle down a bit.
Then again, it was up today, so maybe I don't know nuthin'.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Well the Democratic presidential nominee has my vote by default. I can't stand McAngry McCain and his traitor ways. I'm writing Romney in if he isn't on the ballot. Good news for Democrats, the conservative Republican party is dead.
Posts: 2207 | Registered: Oct 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
Charlie Crist looks, alternately, like a happy frat boy, and like someone with a severe stomach ailment.
Posts: 13680 | Registered: Mar 2002
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by Occasional: the conservative Republican party is dead.
Tell Ron Paul.
You know, whatever happens on SuperDuperUberMega Tuesday, this is going to wind up being a brokered convention. And anything can happen in a convention like that.
Posts: 12266 | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
Everyone is ballyhooing how much McCain won Florida WITHOUT the Conservative vote.
I'm wondering that's GOOD though. He can't win the general without them, especially if he runs against Obama.
Edit to add:
On turnout, 1.6 million Democrats and 1.9 million Republicans voted. Considering the Florida Democratic vote was basically just for fun, that's an impressive number, especially considering Republican turnout was inflated by all the media attention and money spent in the state.
posted
It was a closed primary, he couldn't afford TV ads, and he won. What's the definition of the conservative Republican party anyway? Everything Romney now claims to be? Yet you call McCain "traitor." Who has abandoned their previously held ideals (I'd hold Mitt Romney did it the first time to win Massachusetts).
McCain is an American first, a Republican second.
P.S. I updated my super tuesday spreadsheet with the democrat outlook for super tuesday, based on latest polls (some of which are not late at all) times the number of delegates at stake in each state. It's highly artificial, I know, but I like doing it.
posted
If McCain gets the nom, it gets interesting.
In a Barack/McCain battle, I'd go for Obama. In a Clinton/McCain battle, I'd go for McCain. In a Barack/Romney battle, I'd go for Obama. In a Clinton/Romney battle... I have no idea what I'd do.
Most of the candidates have some good ideas. Some of the candidates' positions aren't very far from each other. And they'll all be limited to they can actually get accomplished.
My concern is for the balance of the government and our position in the world. I want the presidency restored to the checks and balances needed for a healthy government. I want the world to know that we are strong but that we repudiate torture. Their social plans differ and their plans for the war are at odds, but Obama and McCain are very similar on those points and a race between those two gentlemen would at least be civil.
I do not believe that Clinton or Romney have any interest in changing the imperial presidency, and so they don't get my vote.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
Fascinating. And I just redid my spreadsheet, though a lot of those polls were not post SC anyway.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged |
posted
"What's the definition of the conservative Republican party anyway? Everything Romney now claims to be?"
Yes, yes it is! And Romney didn't change in anything other than the abortion issue. The other issues he simply said he would not get in the way of liberal laws he couldn't change anyway. However, his record as governor actually evidences toward his converative leaning. I would even go so far as to say his Mormonism evidences toward his conservatism. In some ways that is why Reid comes off as a complete liberal Democrat stooge with no personal convictions.
As for McCain, he cozied up to Liberal Democrats so much and passed so many laws that weakened conservatism that he is one of them. The only difference is that he doesn't have a (D) after his name. I think that ALL current Republican presidential candidates are Democrats far more than Republican. And he is a jerk who gets angry far too easily against those who don't agree with him. And, more than not that anger is aimed at those who should be his greatest allies.
I really envy the Democrats right now. No matter who they choose, they will actually be a Democrat. You don't hear any arguments about if one of them is actually a conservative and none of them act and talk as if they are.
As for Ron Paul? He would probably have been my first choice if it wasn't for his absolute resistance to the Iraq War and fighting Islamofascism. That is number one priority ahead of social causes right now for me. And, Lisa, there never was a conservative Republicanism of the sort Ron Paul represents. He is a miminalist Constitutionalist and they have always been a fringe element to the party if they aren't Independants to start with.
Posts: 2207 | Registered: Oct 2003
| IP: Logged |
Printer-friendly view of this topic
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
)![[Blushing]](graemlins/blushing.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
I wish I had one. 
