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RichterMagnitude 8.9 at 2:46 in the afternoon: largest in Japan for over 300years NHK AlJazeera BBC 10metre(~33foot) tsunami Japanese nuclear powerplant emergency: shutdown of emergency coolant system
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I hope all the technology that Japan has invested in earthquake proofing has saved lives today, its scary to think of how many people one toppled building in Tokyo would kill. Is there anyway to estimate how the tsunami would affect Hawaii and the North American west coast? wether it would taper off or build up even larger?
If I were a praying man I would do just that, but until then my thoughts and worries are about them.
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I think California would be ok, they tend to earthquake proof their building. Even here in Vegas most buildings are earthquake proof, and we don't get many earthquakes. When we do they are usually just very mild aftershocks from a larger quake in Cali.
I'm praying for the people in Japan. I've always loved everyone I've met from there.
In one of those horrible things that make you smile note, I told my 3 year old niece that there was an earthquake in Japan. She responded by saying that it was because they killed the whales. I told her that I'm going to have to talk to her parents about letting her watch too much Discovery channel.
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I doubt that anyone can earthquake proof a building to stand up to an 8.9 quake. At least, not that anyone could afford.
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You can, perhaps not if the building is standing directly above the epicenter, but there's no reason to believe the buildings in Tokyo and elsewhere by the quake wont do well. Japan has (arguably) the best building code in the world when it comes to earthquakes so while we'll have to wait and see there's every reason to be hopeful.
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MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km Region MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 21:00:46 39.048 142.477 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 20:41:24 37.675 143.698 25.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 20:36:10 37.838 142.847 24.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 20:34:40 36.993 140.985 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 20:23:44 35.818 141.583 24.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 20:11:23 39.025 142.645 8.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.6 2011/03/11 19:46:49 40.472 139.070 10.0 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 19:45:24 37.653 141.548 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 19:31:56 36.962 138.367 10.3 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 19:24:29 35.770 140.639 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 19:02:59 39.372 142.900 24.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 18:59:15 37.037 138.355 10.0 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 18:44:06 36.858 141.029 25.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 18:17:06 36.218 141.685 25.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 18:11:24 37.118 142.160 13.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:50:01 37.648 144.991 25.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 17:32:14 37.137 144.572 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 17:30:48 37.418 141.099 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:23:57 36.015 141.888 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 17:17:00 37.111 144.145 26.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 17:12:41 37.564 144.069 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:55:53 37.779 143.171 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:34:22 39.376 143.405 40.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 16:20:52 36.157 141.877 25.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 16:11:27 39.463 143.577 9.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 16:04:53 39.236 144.320 25.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:55:23 36.626 142.162 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:50:59 37.409 142.217 24.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:46:02 36.022 141.958 19.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 15:42:05 36.066 141.515 15.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 15:32:34 37.216 142.233 25.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 15:19:38 36.233 141.856 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 15:13:15 35.997 141.796 18.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 15:01:39 39.082 142.383 26.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 14:56:16 35.979 141.367 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 14:54:04 35.919 141.819 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 14:44:08 36.655 140.769 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 14:26:31 37.431 142.254 13.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 14:20:20 37.947 143.183 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 14:10:39 37.575 141.963 25.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 14:00:38 36.151 140.845 30.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 13:55:28 38.039 142.831 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 13:48:38 38.426 143.061 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 13:43:10 38.972 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 13:34:36 36.249 141.850 35.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 13:31:55 39.152 142.837 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 13:16:50 36.304 141.730 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 13:15:45 37.393 141.882 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 13:02:43 36.755 141.885 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:59:21 36.128 141.768 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 12:54:52 38.502 142.120 36.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 12:49:01 36.158 141.711 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:34:22 36.912 143.736 39.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 12:33:19 38.374 142.590 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 12:28:45 36.166 141.664 29.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 12:24:37 36.525 141.707 27.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 12:12:53 38.052 142.542 21.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 12:04:16 36.351 142.700 38.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:56:16 36.356 141.504 39.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 11:54:02 36.982 142.535 45.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:46:47 36.034 141.055 47.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 11:44:28 36.709 142.231 31.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 11:36:39 39.276 142.521 11.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 11:21:02 35.759 140.913 25.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:16:51 36.614 141.894 36.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:13:12 36.451 141.789 18.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 11:10:58 35.534 141.856 27.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 11:00:51 37.813 141.481 28.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/11 10:58:06 39.060 142.213 30.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/11 10:52:08 38.534 143.346 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 10:45:46 38.466 143.591 41.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 10:35:36 37.044 141.298 25.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 10:28:44 39.447 143.531 29.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 10:20:27 36.966 142.289 21.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.0 2011/03/11 10:10:35 39.248 142.779 28.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:59:57 36.703 142.207 41.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:47:02 39.685 142.938 29.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:42:22 39.438 142.749 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:37:08 35.877 141.585 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 09:09:15 37.717 143.267 36.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 09:04:10 37.299 142.655 30.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/11 09:00:20 37.056 141.966 20.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/11 08:52:26 36.763 141.910 35.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:46:48 37.421 142.453 37.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:40:56 37.465 141.122 38.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 08:31:08 37.428 141.200 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.5 2011/03/11 08:19:24 36.200 142.000 19.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:15:41 37.034 144.612 27.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.2 2011/03/11 08:12:05 36.606 141.557 19.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.5 2011/03/11 08:10:31 36.394 140.631 30.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 08:01:59 37.071 142.734 22.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/11 07:56:16 37.130 142.305 34.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.7 2011/03/11 07:54:45 37.742 141.565 45.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:42:55 36.406 141.919 29.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:38:27 39.250 142.783 29.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:28:12 36.802 141.911 24.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.1 2011/03/11 07:25:33 37.916 144.621 15.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 07:14:59 36.648 141.811 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.9 2011/03/11 07:13:47 36.051 142.347 28.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.8 2011/03/11 07:11:00 37.899 142.734 30.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:57:15 35.758 140.992 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.3 2011/03/11 06:48:47 37.993 142.764 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 7.1 2011/03/11 06:25:51 38.106 144.553 19.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.8 2011/03/11 06:15:40 36.186 141.192 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 8.9 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/11 00:14:51 -54.369 -116.808 10.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE MAP 5.0 2011/03/10 19:06:11 13.745 120.725 127.0 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES MAP 6.5 2011/03/10 17:08:37 -6.862 116.765 508.1 BALI SEA MAP 5.2 2011/03/10 16:54:45 38.053 143.253 4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/10 11:21:08 38.611 143.049 17.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/10 09:02:22 38.652 143.146 21.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.7 2011/03/10 08:08:21 38.630 143.304 17.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/10 04:58:18 24.710 97.994 10.0 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION MAP 5.0 2011/03/10 01:20:24 38.408 143.033 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.4 2011/03/09 23:37:01 38.438 143.185 32.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.5 2011/03/09 21:24:52 -6.022 149.659 29.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA MAP 6.1 2011/03/09 21:22:18 38.385 142.642 23.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.0 2011/03/09 18:44:35 38.502 143.199 23.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 6.1 2011/03/09 18:16:15 38.378 142.506 22.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/09 13:57:28 8.631 92.395 23.2 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION MAP 5.1 2011/03/09 13:51:42 -20.216 -174.350 132.5 TONGA MAP 5.0 2011/03/09 13:24:08 -27.462 -68.853 108.0 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA MAP 5.1 2011/03/09 11:27:52 38.529 143.040 28.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/09 08:02:36 38.606 143.103 15.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/09 07:56:28 38.849 142.929 10.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/09 07:13:48 38.246 143.108 9.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.1 2011/03/09 06:25:12 38.299 143.067 10.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.3 2011/03/09 04:45:54 38.543 142.740 27.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.7 2011/03/09 04:37:04 38.666 142.991 25.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/09 04:32:10 38.727 143.001 32.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/09 04:05:54 38.870 142.420 10.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.0 2011/03/09 03:19:00 38.795 142.962 19.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.2 2011/03/09 03:08:36 38.339 143.097 24.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 5.6 2011/03/09 02:57:17 38.402 142.825 17.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN MAP 7.2 2011/03/09 02:45:20 38.424 142.836 32.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Posts: 377 | Registered: Jul 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: I doubt that anyone can earthquake proof a building to stand up to an 8.9 quake. At least, not that anyone could afford.
Japan has draconian stability/retrofit laws which include 9-degree earthquake proofing in many areas.
(as a result, the death toll isn't in the thousands there)
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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Last report I read said that four commuter trains are missing, including one of the bullet trains that can carry 400 people.
It may well be that most of the loss of life will be from the 33 ft. high tsunami.
It is still touch and go for two nuclear power plants that have had cooling system failures. They are pumping seawater into the reactor cores to prevent a "China Syndrome." The explosion one plant experienced was a chemical explosion (not nuclear) from hydrogen gas mixing with oxygen and igniting, as the super hot reactor fuel rods caused water to dissociate into hydrogen and oxygen. It was said that the outer building crumbled, but the metal containment dome is still intact. No large scale releases of radioactive heavy elements has occurred, such as would be the case if superhot plutonium (or whatever fission fuel they are using) melted down into the crust of the earth. Radioactive steam is being released into the environment, but that is far less of a catastrophe than having a Chernobyl. The population has been ordered to evacuate within a 12 mile radius as a precaution.
I wonder if any insurance companies in Japan will survive.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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The bulk of the losses in this case will be taken by reinsurance companies, not by insurance companies. The largest reinsurance companies are actually disproportionately European (and to a lesser extent American). *shrug*
Posts: 7593 | Registered: Sep 2006
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Mucus, I am not familiar with reinsurace companies. Are they like insurance companies for insurance companies?
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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quote:In terms of share price impact, whilst there is considerable uncertainty, the stocks will be under some pressure we expect. Jap Quake is one of the “peak zones” for cat covers so everyone writes it pretty much. Euro reinsurers would have the largest absolute losses given their size and the fact that all the Japanese primaries buy significant cover. Lloyds and Bermuda will also have some share and probably slightly higher as % of TBV given their more cat focused books vs European reinsurers .
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You will probably at some point chance across this picture making the rounds on the internet showing a supposed wave of fallout that will dose half the continental U.S. in something like 750 rads. It's so dumb. It scares me that it is going to be successfully sensational and scary to too many americans.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: It may well be that most of the loss of life will be from the 33 ft. high tsunami.
I can see no way that the largest loss of life won't be from the tsunami. By an order of magnitudes, even.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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Japan leads the world in Earthquake proofing its structures but I don't think any civilization is Tsunami proof.
Bloomberg is reporting that this won't have any negative effect on the global economy even though Japanese Markets have melted down about 8% today and Japan is going to print billions of Yen to fix the problems. They're the 2nd to us in national debt with 12.2 trillion.
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Ya know what's really disturbing? All those pictures and videos of people wandering amidst the wreckage and of survivors and refugees... ...and an extreme paucity of children within them, an extreme scarcity of even highschool-age pre-adults.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
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quote:Many of the victims are likely to be elderly people, which could prove one of the defining characteristics of this disaster. After the Sichuan earthquake in China – in which an estimated 90,000 people died – the focus was on building design and the large numbers of children who died in school collapses. In Shintona, however, buildings have – for the most part – proved remarkably resilient. Several locals said the young had been able to flee quickly when the tsunami warning was issued, but that older people found it harder to run.
"There are many old people here. We have evacuation drills, but people could not get to the meeting place in time. The tsunami was beyond our expectations. We must reflect on our shortcomings," said Jiro Saito, the head of the local disaster countermeasures committee.
Japan is proud of having the world's longest life expectancy, which is particularly evident in rural areas. Shintona's large population of elderly people is evident in the intimate belongings now scattered in the muddy streets – 12-inch vinyl albums of Enka (Japanese blues) classics, a walking stick and tatami mats.
Each picture has a center slide that can be grabbed and moved left or right to more fully reveal the before and the after.
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Not sure my idea of the afterlife includes weird sunglasses. Just cigarettes and Russian brides.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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I was just looking at the list of earthquakes over 8 that have occurred since 1900. World wide there were 31 earthquakes over 8 between 1950 and 1999. There have been 15 since 2000. So its not just the internet and globalization, really really big earthquakes have in fact been twice as frequent over the past 11 1/2 years as they have been during most people's memories. Of the 15 largest earthquakes since 1900, 5 have been in the last 8 years.
It's not likely of any significance. There were 11 earthquakes over 8 during the 1940s. But it is interesting to note.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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This brings to mind a scene I read in an old non-fiction science novel (title Nemesis: The Death Star if you're interested) where a geologist pointed out that most of the world's meteor craters are in Europe and America. The explanation he gave is that "that's where most of the geologists live." I'm wondering if the recent surge in earthquakes isn't at least partly explainable by a similar bias: improved detection. Then again, I believe we've had seismographs for well over 100 years, so maybe the Earth really is just acting up.
Posts: 1029 | Registered: Apr 2007
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Really big earthquakes are rare, hence Poisson-distributed, so they tend to cluster. Humans see patterns in such clusters, but they're not actually there. V2 impacts in London were a similar problem: They were actually quite randomly distributed, but because a really random process has clusters in it, people thought the Germans might be aiming them. This had implications for whether to evacuate the government or not. If the Germans could hit a target the size of London, fine, the government can take its chances. But if they can hit Westminster, better get out.
TLDR: Humans expect random events to be uniformly distributed. They aren't.
Posts: 10645 | Registered: Jul 2004
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Why not, though? I mean this seriously. You said "Poseidon" and I know that was tongue-in-cheek, so really...
Posts: 6367 | Registered: Aug 2003
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quote:Originally posted by King of Men: Really big earthquakes are rare, hence Poisson-distributed, so they tend to cluster. Humans see patterns in such clusters, but they're not actually there. V2 impacts in London were a similar problem: They were actually quite randomly distributed, but because a really random process has clusters in it, people thought the Germans might be aiming them. This had implications for whether to evacuate the government or not. If the Germans could hit a target the size of London, fine, the government can take its chances. But if they can hit Westminster, better get out.
TLDR: Humans expect random events to be uniformly distributed. They aren't.
Great post, and that fact is one of the most overlooked ones, at least by non-scientists.
I can't tell you how many times I have tried to explain the Gamblers Fallacy to people only to have them look at ME like I am crazy.
Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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quote:Originally posted by King of Men: I'm not sure whether you're joking or genuinely misread 'Poisson'.
I genuinely misread it; guess that's what I get for reading Hatrack on a phone. Off to research Poisson.
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