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Author Topic: Republican Presidential Primary News & Discussion Center 2012
Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
I think most of the proposed tax plans are ones that they can spin reasonably well to their base, sound good as sound bites, can't really be evaluated without making big assumptions letting them say the assumptions are just wrong, and most importantly, are totally infeasible to implement given the current political climate.

The base of conservative upper middle class white voters is not big enough to carry the electorate. And these above mentioned tax schemes would sell to *no one* else, as far as I can see. Once again, republicans appeal to a dwindling base they seem intent on shrinking even more.
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fugu13
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quote:
The base of conservative upper middle class white voters is not big enough to carry the electorate. And these above mentioned tax schemes would sell to *no one* else, as far as I can see. Once again, republicans appeal to a dwindling base they seem intent on shrinking even more.
These sorts of plans are all very popular with poor conservative voters. Whether you think they should be or not, they are.
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Lyrhawn
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I've seen polls that say even people in the Tea Party support raising taxes on the wealthy, I think I recall seeing a poll that a majority of Tea Partiers support such a measure.

I'm not sure if the public really knows what it wants, or who is actually espousing what it claims it wants.

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BlackBlade
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I just...what the...I don't even...oh whatever. Joe The Plumber is running for Congress!?

Link.

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SenojRetep
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
I've seen polls that say even people in the Tea Party support raising taxes on the wealthy, I think I recall seeing a poll that a majority of Tea Partiers support such a measure.

This CBS/NYT poll probably indicates that's not the case (although I'm not disputing there may have been a poll in the past that painted such a picture).

According to the poll, Republicans in general oppose raising taxes on millionaires 38-59. It therefore seems unlikely that people who identify with or even sympathize with the Tea Party would, on average, be in favor.

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Blayne Bradley
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The problem Orincoro is that the Conservatives don't have to appeal to their base, but instead have successfully constructed a decades long propaganda campaign of divide and conquer of turning individuals against their class interests.

The Koch Brothers, a poor blackman and a poor white guy sit around a large cake, divided into 10 slices, the Koch brothers take 9 slices, when the black guy goes to take the last slice the Koch brothers scream at the white dude "DONT LET THAT BLACK MAN TAKE YOUR SLICE!"

Misdirecting the narrative to focus on the zero sum game of the remaining scraps of wealth that the rich deigned to leave to the poors.

I once had a conversation with a women on irc who kept saying things like "I don't hate rich people, I don't think its fair to tax them, why do you have to hate rich people?" I also had every indication she was at most lower middle class. And to further illustrate the success of right wing misinformation campaigns when I described Keysnian Theory to her she likened it to "Communism".

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SenojRetep
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I just...what the...I don't even...oh whatever. Joe The Plumber is running for Congress!?

Link.

He's got essentially no chance of winning. In 2010, the incumbent Democrat "only" won by 18 points; Barack Obama took the district by 34 points in 2008. And the district has since been gerrymandered (by Republicans) to be even more heavily biased towards Democrats.
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Blayne Bradley
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I'm guessing to make all the other districts more republican?
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SenojRetep
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quote:
Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
I'm guessing to make all the other districts more republican?

Exactly.

A good gerrymander makes a few extremely high density districts for your political opponents (such as the one Joe the Plumber is running in), and many moderately high density districts for yourself. The preference seems to be to have as many districts as possible be between 55-60% biased toward your political party, pushing all your opponents into a few districts that are biased as near to 100% as possible.

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I just...what the...I don't even...oh whatever. Joe The Plumber is running for Congress!?

Link.

Well, he already has the fudging-your-qualifications part of politicking down pat.
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Javert
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I just...what the...I don't even...oh whatever. Joe The Plumber is running for Congress!?

Link.

Who?

Oh, you mean Sam the non-plumber. Gotcha.

I plan to vote for Mario or Luigi.

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kmbboots
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How very...random.
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Lyrhawn
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Herman Cain's new ad that went viral

I don't know what to say. Part of me just absolutely loves it. I mean it's the epitome of a presidential campaign ad; it says absolutely NOTHING about the candidate or his policies. Maybe what I like so much about it is that it's absolutely unapologetic about it. It's like they knew they weren't saying anything, but wanted to be as badass as possible about it.

Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

The song, by the way, is I Am America by Krista Branch. I normally don't care for patriotic songs, but it's actually not bad, and it's catchy. Personally I think Cain should have gone with this song, but it wasn't a bad second choice.

When you have limited funds and you're trying to raise your name recognition, this ad is absolutely brilliant. The pundits who are saying it was a disaster are way off, and I don't think they really understand how the internet works.

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Dan_Frank
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Dude. He's going to put the "United" back in the United States of America. What more could you want?

I've hated just being "The States of America" ever since Obama got elected, so I fully support this new proposal, even though I know realistically he could never ram it through such a liberal Senate.

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Nighthawk
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If he becomes President, does every registered voter get a free pizza?
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Dan_Frank
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That's what I'm counting on.
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T:man
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Herman Cain's smile/laugh was really creepy.

This being the first presidential election I can actually vote in, I know who's smile I'm not voting for.

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Nighthawk:
If he becomes President, does every registered voter get a free pizza?

quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
That's what I'm counting on.

Bah. Wouldn't help those of us who keep kosher, since you know the free pizzas definitely won't be kosher.
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Dan_Frank
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He's going to put the United back in the United States of America, Rivka, and you're worried about whether or not your free pizza will be kosher???? Get your priorities straight!

Besides, he fully supports Israel, so it should go without saying that he will have a kosher option for Free Pizza Inauguration Day.

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
he fully supports Israel

The reasons why certain groups of Christians and political conservatives (in this case, some from column A and some from column B) support Israel have amazingly little to do with respecting the observance of Orthodox Jews.
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Dan_Frank
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Impossible! I don't want to believe it, so I won't.
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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
quote:
The base of conservative upper middle class white voters is not big enough to carry the electorate. And these above mentioned tax schemes would sell to *no one* else, as far as I can see. Once again, republicans appeal to a dwindling base they seem intent on shrinking even more.
These sorts of plans are all very popular with poor conservative voters. Whether you think they should be or not, they are.
They're popular because they're simple, and they sound "common sense." It takes exactly 2 seconds for them to become unpopular when it is pointed out that it will raise effective tax rates on poor conservatives, in many cases doubling existing rates, or imposing new taxes on people who don't currently pay income tax at all.

Then Cain will mollify these voters by promising a list of exemptions and workarounds that will complicate the "simple" idea and make it more palatable, and then he will lose the support of rich conservatives who want to shift the tax burden to the poor, because they know that the inevitable counter-balance to these exemptions is raising their tax burdens in some way.

And what will happen is the poor will get the exemptions and the rich will work out ways of avoiding the burden and the middle class, with income enough to pay their taxes but too few connections to shelter a large proportion of their income from taxes will pick up the bill. Just like they already do.

The point is, the current system is in place because it's the one most politically palatable to the largest number of people. Radical and regressive schemes never get very far because the poor get riled about them, the rich don't get any more votes than anyone else, and the middle class is busy working and trying to pay the mortgage.

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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by Javert:


Oh, you mean Sam the non-plumber. Gotcha.

I mean... not a *licensed* plumber. And technically misrepresented himself as a potential small business owner, and said in 2009 about running for congress that he "talked to God about that and He was like, 'No'".

So basically he a non-plumber commercial actor and motivation speaker who has direct verbal communication with god, but doesn't take his advice.

I'd say I'm sure he's a nice person, but to be honest, every quote I've ever read from him makes him sound like an asshole.

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jebus202
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

For me it has to be the gratuitous smoke he lit up. It's so bad ass, and it brings me back to the good old days when liberals hadn't come along and ruined cigarettes, with their talk of "cancer" and "impressionable youths".
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Jake
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I can't get to it from work, so I can't link it right now, but Colbert's parodies of the commercial, which aired on Tuesday's show, are hilarious.

I found the slow smile pretty creepy, by the way. There was an "I have you by the balls" quality to it, from my perspective, that was...unsettling.

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Bokonon
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Dan, you're on a roll [Smile]
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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
Impossible! I don't want to believe it, so I won't.

We're pretty sure you're NOT my ex, right?
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The Rabbit
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I found the entire commercial really creepy, from the racing heart beat music at the start to the smile at the end. Just thinking about it gives me the willies.
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Dan_Frank
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quote:
Originally posted by rivka:
quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
Impossible! I don't want to believe it, so I won't.

We're pretty sure you're NOT my ex, right?
You know, I've dated so many Orthodox Jewish girls I can't even be sure. Something about the fact that they'd actually never date me just makes them irresistible!
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rivka
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Nevermind. Even my ex (-spouse, btw) isn't that twisted.
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Dan_Frank
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Hmm, you know, that may have come out a little creepier than I intended. Or... a lot creepier. Oops. Time to rip my tongue off of my cheek for a moment. Augh, that smarts!

My apologies if I offended you or anyone else. Wasn't my intent, I promise.

PS: Bok, thank you! I did it just for you (and/or anyone else who was amused) [Smile]

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Lyrhawn
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Twisted, but not unusual.

Lots of people are programmed to want what they can't have. Perhaps some more than others.

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
When you have limited funds and you're trying to raise your name recognition, this ad is absolutely brilliant. The pundits who are saying it was a disaster are way off, and I don't think they really understand how the internet works.

The people who are saying it's a disaster understand that usually (and definitely politically) "all popularity is good popularity" is about as far from the truth as you can manage.
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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by jebus202:
quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

For me it has to be the gratuitous smoke he lit up. It's so bad ass, and it brings me back to the good old days when liberals hadn't come along and ruined cigarettes, with their talk of "cancer" and "impressionable youths".
I don't get the cigarette part... what was the point of that??
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Lyrhawn
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But this is neutral popularity.

Perry has only been getting bad press lately because he's tripping all over himself, while Cain has been on the rise for various unknown reasons apparently centered around his tax plan. I recognize that not all news is good news, but there's simply nothing to this ad at all except it being just odd enough to go viral but not whacky enough to turn people immediately off.

This recent ad doesn't really do anything in particular except get people to pass it around and raise name awareness.

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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by jebus202:
quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

For me it has to be the gratuitous smoke he lit up. It's so bad ass, and it brings me back to the good old days when liberals hadn't come along and ruined cigarettes, with their talk of "cancer" and "impressionable youths".
I don't get the cigarette part... what was the point of that??
There isn't a point to it, that's the beauty of it!
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BlackBlade
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It was a subtle nod to a policy of weakning the EPA. We're all going to be able to smoke wherever the hell we want now!
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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by jebus202:
quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

For me it has to be the gratuitous smoke he lit up. It's so bad ass, and it brings me back to the good old days when liberals hadn't come along and ruined cigarettes, with their talk of "cancer" and "impressionable youths".
I don't get the cigarette part... what was the point of that??
There isn't a point to it, that's the beauty of it!
I feel like I've heard that somewhere before...
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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
My apologies if I offended you or anyone else.

Not at all. I was amused.
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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by jebus202:
quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Other than the song, my favorite part was the slow smile at the end. Man that was funny.

For me it has to be the gratuitous smoke he lit up. It's so bad ass, and it brings me back to the good old days when liberals hadn't come along and ruined cigarettes, with their talk of "cancer" and "impressionable youths".
I don't get the cigarette part... what was the point of that??
There isn't a point to it, that's the beauty of it!
I feel like I've heard that somewhere before...
Nope, I just made that up alllll by myself. [Smile]

Blackblade -

Well, not anything we want. Just the things we don't classify as satan's devil weed!

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Dan_Frank
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quote:
Originally posted by rivka:
quote:
Originally posted by Dan_Frank:
My apologies if I offended you or anyone else.

Not at all. I was amused.
Oh good! Your deadpan was too dead(panny?) for me, I actually got concerned for a moment there.
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rivka
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I knew I should have included a [Wink] ! I debated it, actually.
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Dan_Frank
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No it's better this way. I was pretty much going to keep being "in character" until something like that happened, and it was getting exhausting!
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BlackBlade
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Lyrhawn: I said "wherever" we want. Whatever we want was not discussed in the video, at least the commentary does not extend beyond tobacco. [Smile]
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DDDaysh
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I think you're giving the poor conservative voter WAY too much credit.

I live in an area surrounded by farms that only survive because of government subsidies. These VERY SAME farmers write to our local paper every week complaining about Gov'ment Spendin'.

quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
quote:
The base of conservative upper middle class white voters is not big enough to carry the electorate. And these above mentioned tax schemes would sell to *no one* else, as far as I can see. Once again, republicans appeal to a dwindling base they seem intent on shrinking even more.
These sorts of plans are all very popular with poor conservative voters. Whether you think they should be or not, they are.
They're popular because they're simple, and they sound "common sense." It takes exactly 2 seconds for them to become unpopular when it is pointed out that it will raise effective tax rates on poor conservatives, in many cases doubling existing rates, or imposing new taxes on people who don't currently pay income tax at all.

Then Cain will mollify these voters by promising a list of exemptions and workarounds that will complicate the "simple" idea and make it more palatable, and then he will lose the support of rich conservatives who want to shift the tax burden to the poor, because they know that the inevitable counter-balance to these exemptions is raising their tax burdens in some way.

And what will happen is the poor will get the exemptions and the rich will work out ways of avoiding the burden and the middle class, with income enough to pay their taxes but too few connections to shelter a large proportion of their income from taxes will pick up the bill. Just like they already do.

The point is, the current system is in place because it's the one most politically palatable to the largest number of people. Radical and regressive schemes never get very far because the poor get riled about them, the rich don't get any more votes than anyone else, and the middle class is busy working and trying to pay the mortgage.


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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by DDDaysh:
I think you're giving the poor conservative voter WAY too much credit.

I live in an area surrounded by farms that only survive because of government subsidies. These VERY SAME farmers write to our local paper every week complaining about Gov'ment Spendin'.

quote:
Originally posted by Orincoro:
quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
quote:
The base of conservative upper middle class white voters is not big enough to carry the electorate. And these above mentioned tax schemes would sell to *no one* else, as far as I can see. Once again, republicans appeal to a dwindling base they seem intent on shrinking even more.
These sorts of plans are all very popular with poor conservative voters. Whether you think they should be or not, they are.
They're popular because they're simple, and they sound "common sense." It takes exactly 2 seconds for them to become unpopular when it is pointed out that it will raise effective tax rates on poor conservatives, in many cases doubling existing rates, or imposing new taxes on people who don't currently pay income tax at all.

Then Cain will mollify these voters by promising a list of exemptions and workarounds that will complicate the "simple" idea and make it more palatable, and then he will lose the support of rich conservatives who want to shift the tax burden to the poor, because they know that the inevitable counter-balance to these exemptions is raising their tax burdens in some way.

And what will happen is the poor will get the exemptions and the rich will work out ways of avoiding the burden and the middle class, with income enough to pay their taxes but too few connections to shelter a large proportion of their income from taxes will pick up the bill. Just like they already do.

The point is, the current system is in place because it's the one most politically palatable to the largest number of people. Radical and regressive schemes never get very far because the poor get riled about them, the rich don't get any more votes than anyone else, and the middle class is busy working and trying to pay the mortgage.


I'm not giving them much credit. I'm not saying they would comprehend this process, just that their reactions are predictable enough to ensure a particular outcome, regardless of what their politics are. The subsidies are a good example- they complain about gov'm't spending, but old complain with equally full voice about ending subsidies, and would not recognize the irony. They are not required to recognize it- it simply is.
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Dan_Frank
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But but but... I'm poor, and I'm a conservative voter! [Frown]
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Orincoro
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I doubt you are poor in the sense that i am invoking the term: undereducated, living in an underdeveloped area, with limited opportunity for economic mobility.

And anyway, it's not exactly the "conservative voter," is it? It's just the type of voter who simultaneously depends upon and actively defends government subsidies, and can also be convinced that he would be better off living under a government which *does not provide* such subsidies. In a word, stupid.

The weird thing is when people say that liberals = poor urban minorities who are only voting in their own economic best interests, when in fact basically *everyone* who benefits from government spending will fight to defend that benefit. The really interesting thing to me is how the Republicans convince poor people to vote against "big government," as a concept, even when that means economic ruin for them personally.

And can we wonder why the Republicans never actually pursue their campaign against big government when they are actually in power? If they did, they would alienate the people who would lose their benefits. Better to only try and interfere with and damage the mechanisms of government from the outside, so that they're never actually responsible for taking anything away, just *stopping* things from happening. And when they're in power? Spend a lot of money, and don't worry about it- the Democrats will come back in and make the unpopular decisions about paying for those debts.

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Dan_Frank
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Yeah that sure is disappointing, I'll grant you. I don't totally agree with the way you're characterizing the situation on the whole, but it's absolutely true that a significant majority of Republicans only pay lip service to the small government ideals they espouse. It's why a lot of people like me vote Libertarian... at least then they don't feel like the guy they put in office screwed them (... since they didn't put anyone in office.)
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Orincoro
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Hah, well that's one way to go. I'm not one who thinks that's a Republican conspiracy or anything, just a natural end to espousing a policy that sounds much better than it actually is. "Small government" sounds fantastic, but involves too many and wholly too large compromises for anyone to actually pursue it with a full heart. So if you're a libertarian, you won't be elected. And if you're a Republican, you can get elected, as long as you don't actually do half of what you promise you're going to do. That's just ideological corruption 101. Ideology that can get you elected- but that you could never actually follow.
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