Anyway...Nate Silver just made some big shifts towards Obama tonight. The biggest one being flipping Florida for him. But by the narrowest of narrow percentages.
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I don't do predictions; I'm not as courageous as you are. Although having never once successfully predicted something despite constantly making predictions may have built up your tolerance for being wrong far beyond that of normal humans.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Here is my prediction for the presidential election: Romney will win 56% of the popular vote, and over 300 electoral votes. He will win Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan.
This should be added to Samprimary's list.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: This will stir up some of his followers to violence.
Someday I would like to understand why certain conservative types seem to fantasize about impending race/class/partisan violence or even warfare.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Here is my prediction for the presidential election: Romney will win 56% of the popular vote, and over 300 electoral votes. He will win Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan.
I also predict that the large margin of victory will only make Obama madder, and he may actually refuse to give a concession speech, telling the media it is because he regards the election process as corrupt and racist. He will bitterly denounce the Tea Party and all other conservatives, and will try to put much of the blame for his defeat on Fox News Channel.
This will stir up some of his followers to violence.
Once Romney has been inaugurated, I believe that the FBI and other investigative agencies will be able to discover and reveal all the dark secrets Obama has been covering up--and some of them will be real doozies.
Come on, Blayne, Samprimary, Orincoro, TomDavidson, et. al. Let's see your predictions.
My prediction is that literally everything you said is wrong because you are always wrong and make terrible delusional predictions, and Obama will win it in a EV crush somewhere in the general region of 304 votes (like let's say tentatively 292-314, but I have only gambled on Obama, not on how many EV's he's going to get, so it could vary outside that range I guess) and about 51%-ish of the popular vote and Romney will concede before we even get to go to sleep, because we will have known that Obama won well before we get the West Coast counted up, with a bunch of pundits just trying to stand around not really talking that heavily about what we knew since OH went blue.
I also predict less than favorable odds that you will openly admit your wrongness to me, as promised, about your prediction that Obama would end his presidency impeached with the help of democrats in congress. But not impossible odds. You may just not be a coward about that.
In the like disastermiracle chance that Romney wins (he's not) I would attest that Obama would prove most of your predictions wrong openly by providing a concession speech and stepping down and be done about it and your calls to violence thing wouldn't happen and there would be no FBI landmark discovery validating your various legitimately honestly crazy conspiracy theories about Obama's plan to turn the US into a third world nation for whichever nefarious undetailed reasons you have alluded to, but since Obama is going to win we will have no way to prove this to you but that's okay I don't care.
Guantanamo's prison camp will probably shut down in the next four years.
The next Republican presidential primary will aspire very hard to be as completely bonkers as this last one.
Homophobic laws will continue to bleed away as we approach nationwide acceptance of gays as human beings who deserve marriage too, and the GOP will slowly and carefully back away from their strategy of pandering to old homophobes becomes a politically untenable association with any demographic that won't be dying off in the next 15 years or so.
There might be (50% chance??) another hard crash precipitated by some sort of an asian economic meltdown but eh I'm sure that will be obama's fault too, because republicans. It may hit us mildly or pretty damn brutally if it does happen who even knows. Yes you can tell this is an amazingly courageous prediction (thing might happen! thing might be big, or not! or not happen at all!)
The election will cause you to lose one of your precious few remaining marbles and there will either be complete radio silence or even more disjointedly delusional rambling over time from you.
TomDavidson will write a post that infuriates Dagonee. It will probably have a smiley face.
OSC will write a terrible political article.
Characters who disagree with the sheriff in Walking Dead will die. E-viewership of the show will rebound a bit after I tell people that the show's absolute utter stupidest character that we all hate has died oh my god spoiler alert. I will quit watching like a month from now even if the new season is great because I'm a fickle person.
TomDavidson will find faith with the Russian Orthodox Church before rediscovering his spiritual divine at The Great Stupa of Dharmakaya.
Miss Jones will turn out to have been a robot after all. The Wandering Eye story will be a cover.
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I'll predict Obama will win with 290 electoral votes. I'll give Romney Virginia, but Obama Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
Dems end up with 53 Senate seats, also gaining a handful of Congressional ones (14).
Liberal talking head will talk about how this means Obama has a mandate for his policies, and that Republicans have been slapped for their four years of obstructionism. That the party is becoming radical and marginal and will need to reinvent themselves.
Fox News will try to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election. Conservative talking heads will predict another financial collapse because Romney wasn't elected, and so businesses will be afraid to invest. Also how it's hard to to unseat a sitting president, and this narrow victory is a warning from the American people that Obama does not have a mandate. They will ask what Romney's future will consist of, and I think it will be a departure from politics.
Maybe he'll govern Utah, seeing as how we already do all the crazy stuff he's promised to do, he can focus instead of getting us solvent.
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That'll be the immediate aftermath, but I think there will be dissertations written on what happens in the GOP for the next two years if Romney loses. Lloyds of London is giving better odds of Romney running again in 2016 than either Biden or Clinton.
Will he run again and blame the far right for his loss? Will the far right rend their garments and blame Romney's lack of true conservative bonafides? A civil war is brewing on the right.
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Blayne Bradley
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quote:
Come on, Blayne, Samprimary, Orincoro, TomDavidson, et. al. Let's see your predictions.
Ron you had stated that my post on page 22 to be "untrue" and that your post to be "factual".
Here is your post in question:
quote: Lyrhawn, America has enough coal reserves to supply all its energy needs for centuries. America has been called the "Saudi Arabia" of coal. Cut back on coal, and it would be necessary to import more oil. Carbon taxes come down much harder on coal burning power plants, because of the mistaken belief that coal cannot be burned cleanly. There is so much politics involved here, that science is totally shoved aside.
Here is the post, let us break down to its principle claims that you have asserted to be factual.
1. "America has enough coal reserves to supply all its energy needs for centuries."
Truth-o-meter says... FALSE! As explained earlier in the article and the video I linked, this isn't true. In 1997 American energy from the coal it mined peaked and has declined ever since.
This means absolutely, that America cannot turn to coal to sustain its energy requirements, and will mean having to import coal and petroleum from foreign nations to meet the difference. By your standards switching to coal is more UnAmerican than switching to alternate energy and fuel sources which would reduce American dependence on fossil fuels considerably.
2. America has been called the "Saudi Arabia" of coal.
I'll rate this as largely incorrect; the United States has the largest share of coal at 22% with Russia and China at 14 and 12 percent. However if we compare it to Saudi and Arabian oil, their proven reserves stand at 55% of the world's total supply, this is more then double than the American relative share of coal.
3. "Cut back on coal, and it would be necessary to import more oil."
False. The goal is to replace the energy from coal with the energy from renewables and other 'green' energy, including hydroplants and nuclear. With sufficient investment and planning nothing stops this from happening at the sametime. Thereby preempting to have to fiddle with imports/exports at all.
As pointed out above, you are doubly false because further reliance on coal will just simply force you to import more from Russia/China to make up the energy deficit. Your trading one geopolitical foe for another?
4. "Carbon taxes come down much harder on coal burning power plants, because of the mistaken belief that coal cannot be burned cleanly. "
Carbon taxes come down harder because coal is one of the worst widespread industrial process for generating pollution and other harmful byproducts to both the environment and human life. Have you seen all of the absolute horror stories of children born with mental or physical disfigurations from mercury in the water tables (from coal)?
Which to mention, clean coal technology does not address mercury pollution from coal plants.
Part of the problem is that even if you managed to significantly mitigate the greenhouse gas emmissions from carbon sequestration you still end up with massive pollution, radionuclides and harmful byproducts from unsustainable strip mining for coal. Its saddeningly easy to find stories of how strip mining for coal has ruined the quality of life of communities affected by such mining.
Furthermore, clean coal technology as it exists only has come into being as a result of EPA regulations. Meaning that without the current drive for green technologies and renewables coal companies wouldn't be trying desperately hard to stay relevant. So if your going to harp on clean coal then you must acknowledged the role environmental regulations and activism has played.
5. "There is so much politics involved here, that science is totally shoved aside."
True! We have a winner! Except... Ironically...
You're still wrong because you have the direction of implications wrong, it is overwhelmingly republicans who throw away and ignore the science. In fact if I recall Georgia I believe (the state) has made it illegal for scientists to report their findings regarding global warming; the words and reports of professionals, not politicians is being ignored by the GOP in that State.
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Maybe he'll govern Utah, seeing as how we already do all the crazy stuff he's promised to do, he can focus instead of getting us solvent.
Oh, please, no.
Of course, I don't think it'll happen. I think he was only interested in being governor of Massachusetts to serve as a springboard for running for president, and I don't think being governor of Utah would help with that.
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My prediciton: Obama wins every state he carried in '08, sans FL, IN, and NC for 303 electoral votes.
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That's my guess as well. Though he may yet pull Florida out. It's been moving his way over the last two weeks, slowly.
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Blayne Bradley
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I'm an idealistic nutter, so I'm going for he carries Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
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I predict it will come out 290-248, for Obama. I painted Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia red. I know Virginia looks likely for Obama, but I just have a hunch.
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Maybe he'll govern Utah, seeing as how we already do all the crazy stuff he's promised to do, he can focus instead of getting us solvent.
Oh, please, no.
Of course, I don't think it'll happen. I think he was only interested in being governor of Massachusetts to serve as a springboard for running for president, and I don't think being governor of Utah would help with that.
May he be called to be *your* stake president!
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I want like a book of cutting mormon curses like that
/edit I also predict that fox news channel's ratings will spike slightly after romney's concession as people dial in to drink their delicious tearsPosts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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The civil war being spoken about is kind of a real thing, yanno. There's a bit of momentum at issue in the GOP where you have the oldschoolers very direly worried about the spiral effect drawing the GOP hard to the right (where it is dominated and commanded by wedge issues like gays and abortion and a fanatical opposition to tax hikes, even for the most extremely rich) and intent on getting the GOP back to the big tent idea for the sake of its own survival; but they are contested by the tea party glory day folks who are intent on keeping the momentum exactly the way they want it.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: This will stir up some of his followers to violence.
Someday I would like to understand why certain conservative types seem to fantasize about impending race/class/partisan violence or even warfare.
They got blue balls at the end of the Cold War when they didn't get to join the Wolverines in Red Dawn, so they are falling back on the southern Lost Cause?
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quote:Originally posted by Godric 2.0: I just thought these two comments should be juxtaposed:
quote:Originally posted by Jon Boy:
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: This will stir up some of his followers to violence.
Someday I would like to understand why certain conservative types seem to fantasize about impending race/class/partisan violence or even warfare.
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: A civil war is brewing on the right.
You should take this to its over-literal conclusion, man. Lyrhawn wasn't just saying that Republicans will be killing each other, he was saying that they'll be doing it with rifle muskets and bayonets and mounted cavalry.
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quote:Originally posted by Tarrsk: You should take this to its over-literal conclusion, man. Lyrhawn wasn't just saying that Republicans will be killing each other, he was saying that they'll be doing it with rifle muskets and bayonets and mounted cavalry.
I wasn't making any conclusion, just juxtaposing. As Juxtapose (natch) pointed out: the comments are literal vs. metaphorical. But that's exactly why I thought putting them together was apropos.
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There are some numbers from KE, 4000 pop vote for Romney and a 1000 for Obama. Good luck Romney!
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quote:Originally posted by Jon Boy: We're electing a new president of Hatrack. The candidates are Baldar and Cedrios.
Coincidentally I was voted President of Hatrack last time, and now that I'm moderator, I figure I should just declare a state of emergency, remove term limits and cancel the elections.
Don't worry, it's for your protection from counter-revolutionaries and socialist (social-media) elements.
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Coincidentally I was voted President of Hatrack last time, and now that I'm moderator, I figure I should just declare a state of emergency, remove term limits and cancel the elections.
Don't worry, it's for your protection from counter-revolutionaries and socialist (social-media) elements.
Why don't you just build a Death Star while you're at it, BlackBlade? Or should I say . . . DarthBlade?
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Comparing to 2008 so far only Indiana went red.
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Blayne Bradley
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Damn you florida, making me care about your swampy tracks of land for once aside from being that place where my grand parents go to for blue berry maple syrup :argh:
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You know, Blayne, blueberries and maple syrup aren't native to Florida, particularly. Posts: 37449 | Registered: May 1999
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Blayne Bradley
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Yeah, but its the best maple syrup I've ever had, blueberry flavoured and I've only ever had it when my grandparents bring it back.
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quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson: I....The best maple syrup you, a Canadian, have ever had is blueberry-flavored stuff from Florida? I don't know how to parse that. *shudder*
Like saying the best cheddar cheese he's had was from Chili's?
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Blayne Bradley
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Btw congrats on your 51st state.
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You should take this to its over-literal conclusion, man. Lyrhawn wasn't just saying that Republicans will be killing each other, he was saying that they'll be doing it with rifle muskets and bayonets and mounted cavalry.
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