posted
If they're smart, no one will initiate an attack on Governor Palin; but will only bring her up as defense if the experience thing ever comes up again.
Posts: 349 | Registered: Jul 2006
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posted
I think that, no matter what the Obama campaign says, perception will be that the campaign has attacked her on inexperience.
What is "official" and what is speculation from pundits will get blurred.
Senator Biden is a "safety net" VP. He can council against mistakes and, if needed, can step into the presidency. Presumably, if Gov. Palin had to step in, she wouldn't have Sen. McCain's experience as a safety net. And the country would be in crisis.
I would far rather see an exciting, "risky", reformer president and a boring "safe" VP.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:If they're smart, no one will initiate an attack on Governor Palin; but will only bring her up as defense if the experience thing ever comes up again.
Have you seen what the Democrats have said today? You are correct of course, but clearly, the Democrats are not smart.
Posts: 457 | Registered: Jun 2005
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quote:I would far rather see an exciting, "risky", reformer president and a boring "safe" VP.
Kate, is there any chance that you'd not have voted for Obama because (hypothetically) he had selected a different VP with as little experience as Palin, assuming general compatibility on the issues?
Posts: 26071 | Registered: Oct 2003
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quote:Originally posted by pooka: I am really astonished that the eskimo and reindeer jokes are passing here on Hatrack.
Reindeer - not so offensive. They are all over the place. Eskimo military? That's a pretty absurd statement. Might as well refer to the Mexican military in Texas or the Sioux military in North Dakota.
This reminds me of the Flight of the Conchords epi where the fruit vendor mistakenly takes out his anti-Aussie views on Brett and Jemaine.
Edit: Not only are reindeer everywhere, but they are delicious in sausage-form. I felt that was important enough to add.
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posted
I probably would have voted for Senator Obama either way, but then I don't consider him a risky choice. I trust his judgement and experience.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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I believe the GOP just scored a tactical, though not crushing victory here...
It was the obvious thing for McCain to announce his VP pick on the tails of Obama's Democratic Convention speech. But had he picked anyone else on the shortlist he had it wouldn't have had nearly the effect picking Palin has.
I missed Obama's speech last night and was completely offline until I put on NPR in the car this morning. I've been pretty busy at work today, so I've only heard NPR, skimmed a few websites and caught up with this thread, but everyone - Obama supporters included - is talking about Palin. I've seen precious little discussion of Obama's speech. So no matter how good it was or how much meat it had concerning the issues, what's on everyone's mind today is McCain's VP pick.
This is what makes the GOP so good at "politics" - not necessarily their PR or advertising campaigns, not their platforms or policy - but their strategy.
Granted, it's a long campaigning season and endurance and consistency hopefully make more impact when the voters step into the booth than a series of "stunts," but I wouldn't be surprised if we see McCain steal the spotlight from Obama just this way many more times throughout the season.
Posts: 382 | Registered: Jan 2008
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I know I said I was going to shove off this thread, but I did want to point out the Delaware does not have that many more people than Alaska. If one is arguing that the population counts more than natural resources. (Biden is from Delaware, in case anyone forgot.)
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
Democrats won't go after her for experience except as a way to blunt any attack from McCain. If McCain says Obama is inexperienced, Obama will say "that's okay with me, but if it's not okay with you, then why'd you pick your VP who has even less experience than I do? Something doesn't track there."
Obama has to not make the experience argument, he has to make the judgement argument, and that's what he's been doing. If he can stay with that, and not pretend that he's all super experienced or what not, then McCain's choice will look pretty thin.
And sorry about the Eskimo military comment. It was a cheap regionalist joke, but the point, that Alaska'a military forces are rather tiny and she has zero foreign policy experience, which is far less than Obama's, is a valid one. Alaska's national guard totals less than 3,000 people.
Frankly I think McCain would be kind of stupid to highlight abortion, though I understand he needs to reassure Conservatives. A lot of the women on the Democratic side that wanted to vote for Hillary were pro-choice, and McCain/Palin is decidedly not. The more they highlight that, the more they'll be pushing those people back into the Democratic camp, at a time when Dems will likely be talking about the economy and healthcare.
quote:It's worse to put a freshman governor one heartbeat away from the whitehouse than to put a freshman senator in it? If picking Palin endangers the country, then voting for Obama should be deemed treason.
How so? Palin has zero foreign policy experience. Obama has at least been working with the foreign affairs committee, he's visited foreign countries in that capacity and has been in the forefront of trying to stop nuclear proliferation. Executive experience means nothing to me. I realize some people goofily fall for the argument, though I might consider executive experience from a very large industrial state or the actual presidency to carry some weight, generally I think a decision is a decision, and voting on a senate bill is a major decision, especially given the complexity of the issues.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
I think the foreign policy experience argument could be summed up as: Palin, one drop of water, Obama, two. Neither would really quench anyone's thirst. Biden and McCain have plenty to go around.
I think in light of all the cancelling out of arguments that's going on with VP running-mates, political doctrine and previous actions will probably dictate my choice.
Posts: 2523 | Registered: May 2000
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Y'know, I just read something that asks a good question: just what is this "foreign policy experience" that everyone seems to take for granted with regard to McCain? The closest he's been in the Senate is his time in the Senate Armed Services Committee, which deals with foreign policy only as it regards military matters. Obama has unquestionably not served in the Senate for as long, but did serve on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Posts: 3826 | Registered: May 2005
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Anybody else remember Karl Rove's comments from a couple of weeks back on the type of VP Obama would pick? I had wanted to post this yesterday, but couldn't find the source that I'd read. Talking Points Memo contained a link this morning that lead to an article that itself contained a link to the original story.
The relevant portion of the article:
quote:"I think he's going to make an intensely political choice, not a governing choice," Rove said. "He's going to view this through the prism of a candidate, not through the prism of president; that is to say, he's going to pick somebody that he thinks will on the margin help him in a state like Indiana or Missouri or Virginia. He's not going to be thinking big and broad about the responsibilities of president."
Rove singled out Virginia governor Tim Kaine, also a Face The Nation guest, as an example of such a pick.
"With all due respect again to Governor Kaine, he's been a governor for three years, he's been able but undistinguished," Rove said. "I don't think people could really name a big, important thing that he's done. He was mayor of the 105th largest city in America."
Rove continued: "So if he were to pick Governor Kaine, it would be an intensely political choice where he said, `You know what? I'm really not, first and foremost, concerned with, is this person capable of being president of the United States? What I'm concerned about is, can he bring me the electoral votes of the state of Virginia, the 13 electoral votes in Virginia?'"
quote:"So if he were to pick Governor Kaine, it would be an intensely political choice where he said, `You know what? I'm really not, first and foremost, concerned with, is this person capable of being president of the United States? What I'm concerned about is, can he bring me the electoral votes of the state of Virginia, the 13 electoral votes in Virginia?'"
So you think Palin is an intensely political choice he made because he's concerned with getting the electoral votes from Alaska?
posted
Maybe it sounds stupid, but who is going to win this election? What is the climate in USA? In my country you can hear only about Obama, very little about McCain. What opinion polls say? Is Obama really going to win?
If I were american, I'd vote for McCain.
Posts: 723 | Registered: Dec 2004
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If you look at the popular vote across the country, they're running neck and neck, but if you look at the electoral college Obama is ahead. But it's really too soon to be able to say who is going to win, a lot of people just don't start paying attention until after the conventions.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
It seems to be about even. Some polls say it's Obama by 1-3% in the popular vote. Some say if the electoral votes were added up today McCain would win by a handful. It's going to be another one of those elections. Hanging chads and butterfly ballots.
Posts: 2523 | Registered: May 2000
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quote:"So if he were to pick Governor Kaine, it would be an intensely political choice where he said, `You know what? I'm really not, first and foremost, concerned with, is this person capable of being president of the United States? What I'm concerned about is, can he bring me the electoral votes of the state of Virginia, the 13 electoral votes in Virginia?'"
So you think Palin is an intensely political choice he made because he's concerned with getting the electoral votes from Alaska?
Yes, because I'm very stupid.
Do you really think that that's what I meant, Speed?
Palin is an intensely political choice because she's a choice that at once woos disaffected Clinton supporters and shores up McCain's support among the religious right. She appeals to two key demographics that McCain will need to win. I don't think that she's somebody who would be picked as VP if the presidential candidate's first and foremost concern were "is this person capable of being president of the United States?"
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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quote:Brinestone, I honestly don't see where serving as vice president is going to take more time that being governor of a state, which though small in population, has a huge amount of resources to be managed and borders on a foreign country. Sure the campaigning is going to be intensive, but it will also only last two months.
This is a good point. I suppose there are and will always be people who want to be much, much busier than I do.
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quote:This is a good point. I suppose there are and will always be people who want to be much, much busier than I do.
It's public service, Brinestone. The world is a better place because Sarah Palin took up Alaska's responsibility as her own. She has done brave work in fighting corruption. The kind of work others weren't prepared to do, mostly because those others were too scared and small, narrowly concerned with maintaining their vague and dirty schemes, schemes they took up and profitted from probably in support of their family. It's not a matter of Palin being busy. It's a matter of political courage and will, the quality of which makes everyone's life better. She's a hero. It doesn't mean I agree with her positions on various social policies, but in her willingness and insight to see the corruption in her party and government and serve to fight it, I'm proud to call her an American. I'm rooting for her. I hope she studies up and shocks the world during the debates. I also hope her team loses the election.
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I wonder how much hay anyone will try to make out of it. Rove is a major player in the party, but it's easy for the McCain campaign to disavow him. Still, wow, who would have thought that those comments would come back to bite him to incredibly specifically. By that comparison, Palin looks even weaker.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Khavanon: Some say if the electoral votes were added up today McCain would win by a handful.
Really? I haven't seen that anywhere. Both CNN and FiveThirtyEight.com have Obama comfortably ahead in the electoral vote. Where have you seen a projection with McCain winning it?
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While I agree with Irami for the most part, I do think it's a little extreme that Palin was back to work 3 days after giving birth prematurely. I would expect anyone, male or female, to take a bit longer than that off after having a new baby join the family. But I suppose that she had a lot more flexibility than most people in how she went back to work, too. It's not like being Governor is a 9 - 5 5 days a week job.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
On the KOS link, look at the first video at 4:25-4:38 (while she's walking down the driveway). The jacket pushes against her belly and a clear roundness at the bottom is visible, especially as she turns to her right at about 4:35.
I have a friend who, if she wore a baggy sweater (one she wore before pregnancy), it was impossible to tell she was pregnant the week before she gave birth.
Posts: 26071 | Registered: Oct 2003
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I had someone come up to me and congratulate me, saying they hadn't known I was pregnant, six hours before I went into labor. My pre-pregnancy weight was a bit higher than hers, though. But still, depending on the position of the baby some women just don't show.
However, if she really did get on an 8 hour plane flight knowing she was in premature labor that seems like poor judgment. Going ahead with the speech is no biggee though, I went into work for 3 hours after my first labor started because I had some things to get done before going on leave. Maybe she has long slow labors.
Or maybe the baby really is her daughter's. The thing that really argues against that, in my mind, is that she would accept the VP nomination knowing she had that kind of secret that could come out. That strains credibility a lot more than a pregnant woman not looking visibly pregnant.
Posts: 9866 | Registered: Apr 2002
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I could believe it either way. I watched the video, and didn't really saw what Dag saw but thought she walked like a pregnant women on the shots where you saw her walking from behind. But, she was also walking on slushy streets in about 2.5" heels.
If it is true, I'm not sure if it makes a difference to me. I don't agree with her policies anyway, and I can understand making this kind of decision, although I think it's taking the easy way out and not making the daughter take responsibility for her actions. But that's their choice, not mine. Of the lies you might catch a political candidate in, this one just seems kinda sad. Beyond the fact that it's a great big public lie and shows a willingness to cover up inconvenient/embarrassing things, I don't know that it has an effect on her ability to govern. I don't really believe that there's ever going to be a candidate that hasn't lied about something that could come back and bite them in the ass, they're all human. I certainly have not always been 100% truthful.
So I think it should be investigated, because that's part of the political process, and if she did lie about it she should know that she can't get away with that sort of thing. But I don't think it should affect her candidacy one way or the other. Again, though, I'm not one of the people who would be voting for her, so it's not my opinion that matters.
I do feel bad for the daughter.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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I said this about McCain's alleged affair and Edwards affair, but I could not care less about this from a political perspective. From a personal perspective, if it's true, I would hope that people would show discretion because this is a teenage girl that would be in the crossfire. I would hope that the controversy would not become national, the issues remain the key to the election, and the candidates themselves win on their own merits and not because the other candidate is the greater of two evils. This girl deserves much better than to become a late show punch-line, but more than that, it is just plain mean-spirited and personifies the worst of us all. This is the kind of crap we need to rise above, especially for the sake of this teenage girl.
That's what I hope anyway. Probably won't happen, but you never know.
Posts: 457 | Registered: Jun 2005
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I have no idea if that's true or not, and personally I don't really care, as I'm not voting for her anyway. I'm sure it'll be looked into, and once the networks get ahold of it, she might have to answer for it. Here's the thing though, all of them have to release their medical reports, and with this, I don't see how they'd let her not release her medical reports.
If it's a real thing, unless she faked her medical reports, it'll come out. If it's fake, I'd imagine the medical reports can put it to rest, but videos and speculation aren't near enough to convince me, neither is the circumstancial evidence regarding her daughter's school attendence.
This ranks ridiculously low on my scale of importance, and the only reason I'm even curious is because I think it goes to her judgement. Is it the kind of family where they're so scared or ashamed or what not of her daughter being pregnant that they'd lie to everyone and radically alter this child's life just so they're more comfortable? That's something I would never assume about someone without a LOT more proof than what's being thrown around right now. I HOPE that Democrats leave this one alone both because it'll blow up in their faces if they try and use it, and because it's just the right thing to do. You don't go after the family.
Well, I guess trying to run on Hillary's pantssuittails is out. She's going to have to run on her own merits, rather than her biology.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:I watched the video, and didn't really saw what Dag saw
I only saw it when I went frame by frame.
quote:The thing that really argues against that, in my mind, is that she would accept the VP nomination knowing she had that kind of secret that could come out.
It does seem unlikely.
quote:I do feel bad for the daughter.
This was my first thought. Either way, this must be terrible for her. Imagine Palin is telling the truth about the baby: this teenager has people pointing out how she looks pregnant in photos. It's like an eating disorder waiting to happen.
Posts: 26071 | Registered: Oct 2003
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posted
I have a friend who had her sixth baby 4 days after I had my first. At my baby shower, no one knew my friend was as pregnant as me. By the time she had the baby, people had just begun questioning if she was maybe pregnant.
But poor daughter. I would hate it if people analyzed pictures of me saying I looked pregnant. And if she did have a baby, that sucks too. Also, stupid reasoning but the baby has down's which makes me think that the 44 year old had the baby, not the 16 year old.
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I wish I lived in a world there were consequences for reporting on something like this if it turns out to be false. I really feel bad for the daughter.
Posts: 349 | Registered: Jul 2006
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I have to admit, given how common (in the news, that is) unknown teenage pregnancies are, how some teenagers go to a dance or something, go to the bathroom, then come back without the baby...how does anyone expect to be taken serious on the 'she don't look pregnant!' claim?
It's totally absurd. Now that the claim has been made, it should be investigated I think. But it's still a stupid claim.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
They actually address the older mom more likely to have Down's thing in one of the articles, scholarette, and said that while a mom over 40 is more likely, they have a 3% chance vs a 1% chance for a mom under 40, and 80% of babies with Down's are born to moms under 40 just because they have the vast majority of babies. But, yeah, it's one of the first things I thought of, too.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
It's also perfectly possible to gain almost no weight during pregnancy. Some women lose all that weight within a day of giving birth, and are back to pre-pregnancy weight right away. It happens.
Ultimately it's just unbelievable that she would have poor enough judgment to do this and expect it never to come out. Aren't there people who work at the hospital where her child was born? Surely they saw who the mother was, and if it wasn't her, we'd find out.
Posts: 9912 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Well, at least the_Somalian's first link labels itself properly, STUPID gossip. As for the DailyKos, didja know that HurricaneGustav was started and aimed toward NewOrleans sose that McCain&Palin could look all presidential during the photo op? Much more dramatic than having the RepublicanConvention as a backdrop.
posted
No, no, no, Gustav was created by the Democrats to hit New Orleans and make Bush look bad.
I have actually heard intelligent people say that the Dems would love to see New Orleans get hit hard just for that reason. This strikes me as just as insane as saying the Dems wanted soldiers to keep dying to prove the surge wasn't working. How can anyone think that of another human being?
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
More than if she looks pregnant or not, the parts that make me think it's plausible are the long wait after she started leaking fluid before going home, and then going home to have the baby and the daughter being out of school for so long. Even if you've had 4 kids already and know you have long labors, there's always a chance of something going wrong or starting to progress faster, and getting on a plane for an 8 hour trip just seems whack.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
McCain's choice kind of forces the American people into a chess fork. It's the only analogy that persistently pops up in my imagination when I think of this race.
posted
Something I hadn't really considered before, but as more and more women come into serious play for major federal political office, this kind of scandal/accusation of scandal will become more common.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
Can someone please explain something to me, because I honestly think part of this conspiracy theory is going over my head.
I agree that, if one were really pregnant and leaking amniotic fluid, it might not be a great idea to get on a plane from Texas to Alaska.
On the other hand, it seems to me that if one were not pregnant and were making the whole thing up, and they were thousands of miles away from a place they could comfortably and discretely pretend to give birth, it would be even stupider to invent a story about their water breaking long before they ever intended to start the cross-country plane ride.
I'm sure there's some element of the story I'm missing, because neither option seems to make any sense to me.
Posts: 2804 | Registered: May 2003
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posted
(I don't know how well this fits into the actual facts but...) my guess is that they needed a reason to suddenly fly back from Texas to Alaska. They may not have realized how serious an excuse water breaking is. Maybe the daughter was ~8 months pregnant* and her water did break, thus suddenly making it important to get back for the birth.
* Trig was 6 lbs or so, from newspaper reports, which at first sounds a bit larger than your average 7 month preemie but I haven't looked up the stats. Edit: Though, the age of the baby isn't that big of a deal. Quite frequently estimates on gestation are wrong. You can tell once they're born by the neurological exam and the condition of the skin etc.
Posts: 1261 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Rakeesh, by "this kind" of scandal, do you mean pregnancy related? I don't know that it will be more common, it's just that it will be about the candidate's pregnancy as opposed to who the candidate got pregnant. I mean, think of Strom Thermond. A female politician is going to be less likely to have a secret child turn up decades later just because it's harder (although not impossible) to hide being pregnant than to hide having gotten someone pregnant. And, really, pretending your teenage daughter's child is your own when you're already in the public eye is going to be pretty rare, whether that's what's happening here or not. Raising your grandchild as your child? Sure. Actually putting your name on the birth certificate? Requires accomplices in the hospital, is not going to become a regular thing no matter how many female politicians there are.
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Speed, yeah, I was wondering that too. Best I could come up with she needed an excuse to leave Texas early and thought this was plausible. If she said it broke after the speech and she ran to get on the plane, that might look more irresponsible than it broke earlier but she wasn't progressing in other ways so in consultation with her doctor she decided it was okay to fly home.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
For the record, my money would be that the rumor regarding Palin is just that and nothing more. But I suspect it would be easier to conceal something like this in some parts of Alaska than in many other states. Health care is pretty spotty in some regions.
Posts: 3826 | Registered: May 2005
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I just meant pregnancy related. I dunno, I guess my off-the-cuff thoughts on the matter are that it's simpler for a man to hide a woman's pregnancy than it is for a woman to hide her own pregnancy, when the ones doing the hiding are in the public spotlight and get their history checked out to some degree.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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