posted
Yes you are a homer. But Dallas does have what it takes to win a conference. Nice defense, potentially good running game, QB who can make all the throws, and deep and posession threats in the passing game to keep defenses honest. The Redskins worry me more because we have a poor DL, and a very young secondary. That being said the Cowboys have thrown some real clunkers out there (there two games against bay area squads were hideous performances).
The most consistent teams to me in the NFC have been the Falcons, Panthers and Seahawks. Generally speaking they've won the games they should have won and been competitve in virtually every game. They all have good running games, and effective defenses (if not the same sorts of defenses that are in the NFC East, Chicago, and even Tampa), and they all have far friendlier schedules than the NFC East squads. We could be too beat up to win anything.
I see Indy beating whomever makes it like you do, but as to who represents the NFC. Could be anybody, nobody really stands out. The entire NFC East is as good as any other playoff contender so who knows? Right now though I like Atlanta or Seattle. They strike me as the teams with the easiest schedules and friendliest situations for home field advantage.
Posts: 752 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
Totally agree with your assessment except that I think Carolina has it over Atlanta because I like their consistency better... to be honest, this is probably because I've seen more of Carolina and have a better feel for how good they are.
Also, the flip side of the tough schedule is being battle-tested... that could be an advantage if, as you say, the teams coming out of the East aren't too worn out by the trip.
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Carolina is thin at DT, again, which severely hampers their runstopping ability.
Atlanta will never be consistent with Vick as their QB. He throws for, what, 250 yds and declares that he's now beyond criticism as a passer. Give me a break.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
The thing is, appearences aside, Carolina has a very balanced offense. Stephen Davis and Ricky Proehl are legitimate threats if anyone ever manages to stop Steve Smith... and no one has yet, I think.
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Okay, let me wade in and make my case for Carolina.
On defense, there is no thin spot at DT, which should be evident now that they're 1st in rushing defense. Carstens and Moorehead have stood in wonderfully for Jenkins, both having gotten a ton of practice last year with his mid-season injury. Buckner is aging, but he can still stand a guard up and knock a center off his blocks. Flank them with Peppers, Rucker (who is very underappreciated), Wallace and Rasmussen and you've got a steady, deep line. Linebacking from Morgan and Witherspoon (who should be in the Pro Bowl by year end) and you're in great shape. Gamble, Lucas and Manning are a great trio of DBs, with McCree and Minter doing a fine job as safeties.
On offense, the line has begun to gel nicely, basically pushing around Tampa's much vaunted front four with relative impunity. Delhomme has settled down (historically his second half of the seasons have been his prime times) and he's starting to spread the ball out more with his passing. Davis and Foster might not be racking up the yardage, but Davis is third highest in the league for rushing touchdowns. Smith is a wonder, although Colbert is having a sophmore slump -- he'll put it together soon. Proehl's experience is incredible and he's fast for an old fella. Heck, even Michael Gaines at TE is coming on. The funny thing is that Carolina is billed as a power running team, but it is there deep strike ability that wins games for them. But it's the threat of the run that opens that up for them (something the Eagles should really look at).
Toss in steady special teams play, the number one red zone offense in the league, third best third down offense in the league, and being on the upside of the takeaway/giveaway ratio, and the Panthers look like the cream of the NFC right now.
Lastly, there are no locker room squabbles, the coaching staff is great and the team's bring a lunchpail and get to work mentality, I think they'll make it to the big dance.
And there, well, let's just say that the Colts have never beaten the Panthers. So there's my pick for the Super Bowl, too.
If the Panthers somehow go belly up in the late season, my money is on either the Cowboys or the Seahawks. Cowboys have a great team mentality and the Seahawks have got Shaun Alexander.
Posts: 2848 | Registered: Feb 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Sopwith: Cowboys have a great team mentality and the Seahawks have got Shaun Alexander.
I don't know that it's so much the team mentality (though having really classy guys like Dat Nguyen certainly helps) as that they are a very complete team. Football, more than any other sport, is about team play, particularly on defense. the strategic nature of the game, with breaks to plan each play, allow teams to really attack each other's weak points and a football team, more than any other professional sports team, is only as strong as its weakest link.
It's very likely that the weak point in the cowboy's defense is Pro-bowl safety Roy Williams, who, whether you think he's over-rated or not, is awfully good to be the weak spot in your chain. They are 5th in overall defense right now, but have played some of the most explosive and/or balanced offenses in the league... and especially some of the toughest runners in the league... holding the likes of LeDanian Tomlinson, Shawn Alexander, Tiki Barber, and Clinton Portis under 100 yds... and Bryan Westbrook to something like 56 all purpose yards. In a 3-4, that indicates teamwork... so maybe Sopwith is on to something, too.
and the scary part is they are getting better... some of their top draft choices are beginning to find their feet and the word is they are ready to step up... so their already formidable line play looks to improve.
Sorry... just got the urge to brag a little from sopwith's post Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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Thin doesn't mean they don't have quality starters, thin means they don't have any depth. I stand by that statement. There run game is still excellent, Delhomme's solid, and the coaching is good. WR is a weakness, and Tampa's front four isn't exactly "vaunted" (weren't they without Simeon Rice for that game?).
But I like the Panthers coming out of the NFC, if only because they always play Atlanta well.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Nope, Rice played the entire game. But Travelle Wharton kept him to 0 sacks, 0 tackles. Most of the time he kept Rice bottled up without much help.
Not bad for a guy's first year as left tackle.
Actually, I think there's a lot of depth on the Panthers, but the WR spot isn't a deep as one would hope. Colbert will turn it around and Proehl is a first class receiver3. Gardner was an interesting pick up from Washington, but he's not lived up to his billing. It's a shame that Drew Carter hadn't moved up to the full team and that Gardner took up a spot for someone else.
Atlanta is Carolina's bugbear, though. The team's never beaten Vick. If that dragon can be slain, things will look good. If not...
Posts: 2848 | Registered: Feb 2003
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On paper and in practice, but then he just does something superhuman. Last year, it was when he levitated an inch over the ground for about four yards to score the game winning touchdown.
On paper, in practice and in theory, they should be able to shut him down. But then he goes and pulls this Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon stuff. I'm only a moderate Vick fan, but sheesh, that guy's just, well, uberhuman at times.
(And his brother is going to be incredible when he hits the league.)
Posts: 2848 | Registered: Feb 2003
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posted
Wow... tough loss for us and JT is off the hook...
How many games this weekend lost by missed chip-shot field goals? That was just plain scary... and I know for Dallas that was the third game out of 4 losses where they missed a field goal of under 40 yds that would have had them on top at the end of regulation. Not that I blame this game on the kicker, but it's just weird.
Some great playoff races shaping up in both conferences, though... Anyone else think Parity is good?
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
I'd take Chicago over Seattle if it came to a head to head matchup, but I do think Seattle has a better chance to go all the way... if that makes sense?
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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Heck, the Cards aren't even the worst in their division. Buck up, Derrell - Denny Green is a darn good coach...as long as he can find a QB.
Posts: 349 | Registered: Feb 2004
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I think the Cards will be the Cards as long a Bidwell is in charge (and maybe a couple of years after).
Poor Texans... they had that one.
thing is, about Seattle, they seem to have been consistently lucky, more than anything else. Weak division, and wins in games they lost against both the Cowboys and the Giants...They are stoppable on offense and the Bears, I think, can stop them cold. As you say, time will tell...
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
And the Chiefs aren't even in the hunt at 5-6. The Chargers are 7-4 and finally winning some of the games they should've been winning all season.
No way does Seattle make it to the Super Bowl. They're too inconsistent.
EDIT: for those who're interested, Mariucci just got canned by the Lions.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Yeah, what Jim-Me said. As long as Bidwell owns the Cardinals, they don't have a snowball's chance in Phoenix in July of being a winning team. Posts: 4569 | Registered: Dec 2003
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I was thinking of the Redskins. Same color scheme, same native american type names. My bad. I retract that statement. Grandmama is running his ass off, and Willie Roaf is supposedly healthy again, they might do some damage down the stretch.
I guess if you put a gun to my head, I'd pick the Steelers tonight, just because all the talking heads are convinced the Colts are unbeatable. It's in Indy, so that's tough, but if Roethlesberger comes back sharp and Pittsburg controls the clock I think they have a shot at taking it tonight.
The D did just give up 37 points last week. You can get behind that secondary, you just have to protect up front, which I think the Steelers can. If Roethlesberger gets hurt again then it's trouble though.
Anybody else?
That does stink about Nguyen, he's a class act.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
I'm with you, if the Steelers can control the ball and the clock, they have the talent to win this one.
It's gonna be interesting to see what happens in the AFC West... I don't think the Chiefs will do it though, they have Denver, Dallas, New York Giants, San Diego, and Cincinatti left.... yikes!
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
I'd love to see the Steelers win this one and if they play good Smashmouth football they can do it. But... it is the Colts, they're a scoring machine.
I hate to say it, but I'm beginning to think that neither the Chiefs or the Chargers may make it to the playoffs. I think for the wildcards it will be Jacksonville (very soft schedule, even with Leftwich out) and either the Steelers or the Bengals, whichever one doesn't take their division.
On the other conference, Seattle does have a history of inconsistency, but they look fairly consistent this year.
The Bears have a devastating defense, but sooner or later someone will break it down in the offense. A team that could score just three TDs on them would pretty much have the game locked up.
Carolina, man, we've gotta do better than this or it'll be one game and out in the playoffs.
Posts: 2848 | Registered: Feb 2003
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posted
I think two touchdowns is enough to beat the Bears on any given Sunday.
Jax? really? they lost to the Rams and had trouble with the Cards and Jets... even the Texans were within a TD of them...
I know they have an easy schedule, but with Leftwich out some of those close games against weak teams might start turning into "L"s and they have a near guaranteed Loss to Indy.
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Jax's back up QB Gerrard can be pretty impressive. He's a bit like Volek or Schaub in that he's great coming off the bench. I've just got a feeling that Jax will be closer to the top than SD or KC by season's end.
Posts: 2848 | Registered: Feb 2003
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posted
could be... there's not a lot of room for error there, each of them being one game back, and KC and SD both have a lot tougher schedule.
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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One thing I know for sure is that my Redskins are meat. I have never seen a team lose the way they lost the last three weeks (giving up 7 point leads twice in the final quarter against tampa bay, choking the next week against Oakland with a 13-3 lead with only about 1 quarter left, and then choking yesterday with a 17-7 lead in the 4th quarter, three consecutive losses like that unbelievable). Suffice it to say, Gibbs cost the team three straight wins with moronic coaching down the stretch (run, run, incomplete pass, every series, every time, for the past three straight weeks in the 4th quarter, the height of predictability).
The Steelers are fully capable of taking out the Colts but I don't see it happening in Indy. If this game were in Pittsburgh, it would be Indy's first loss.
I hope the chargers (even if they did beat the Redskins yesterday) can make it somehow into the playoffs, they're playing better football than anyone save Indy right now. I think they might be able to do it, but it's gonna be incredibly tough.
Posts: 752 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
They got some tough games ahead, but I think they'll go far into the playoffs.
Homefield advantage is huge, but the problem I see is they'll face teams in the playoffs they've already beaten. They could get overconfident and get snuck up on.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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They always could, but they don't seem susceptible to it yet. If they bring their "A" game, it doesn't look like they can lose... and who doesn't bring their "A" game to the playoffs?
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Everyone says they do, but I've seen teams frequently come out flat against a team they crushed earlier in the season.
Like say, the Pats. Colts killed them on Monday night in Foxboro. If they meet again that's a big time trap game.
I think Dungy and Peyton are both smart enough to keep that from happening, but that's the way I think they would lose, as opposed to just being outplayed by someone.
I also think the Chargers are the best shot at ruining the unbeaten season.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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oh, and thanks for being gracious about the Broncos game... this guy here at work was predicting a blow out and said if he were a bookie the line would be Cowboys +11 who came in Monday going "what happened to your cowboys?" as if they didn't show up or something. heh.
Posts: 3846 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Yeah, in the second worst NFL game of the year (the first, of course, being the Sunday nighter between Arizona and SF in Mexico).
And they barely beat the Jets when the Jets were playing a QB I'm not confident would have started at my high school.
And I keep hearing they may have trouble attracting free agents since they don't have a home facility for next season yet. Which stinks, because they've actually made pretty savvy personnel moves in the last two years.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Im making the prediction now that, barring injuries, the Colts will be undefeated.
I think that if they get close enough (13-0, 14-0) to pull the starters at the end would be a sign of weakness and demoralize the team. You have to go for the record, chances like this don't come around every year.
Posts: 201 | Registered: Mar 2005
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Dungy's already said he doesn't care about the record, he wants the ring.
Peyton, I guarantee you, wants the record. And even if they clinch they'll play the starters probably the first quarter of the last two games, which may be enough to win them. Considering that while the offensive stars will rest, the O and D line probably won't.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
I definitely think they'll try for the record. I don't really buy the rest the players argument. They've got a bye, they play at Seattle, then at home against Arizona. Start everyone against Seattle, if they win that (and win three games preceeding it), they can afford to rest guys during the 2nd half of the last game against Arizona which they should win easily at home. I really hope they pull it off, I cannot stand all those Dolphin morons who celebrate other teams going down late in the year (Redskins in '91, Broncos in '98 etc) to keep their faux-record (undefeated is undefeated, but they didn't beat anyone that entire year till the playoffs, and they needed to red zone interceptions by Jake Scott, and a goal post blocking a sure TD to Jerry Smith to beat the Redskins (who were without their stud, if old, QB, Jurgenson, due to injury). I would love to see the Colts end that nearly 35 year run those idiots have had. The only shame is the Colts being a dome team, hard to be a big fan of a team playing in an arena football environment, but at least they're loads of fun to watch.
Posts: 752 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
The only barrier to the record is the Seahawks, and it's not because it'll be a loss, it's because they might have home field wrapped up, and there's no sense risking a Peyton or Edge or Marvin or, heck, anyone in a meaningless game. The record doesn't mean anything without the ring, and that's what the Colts are about.
They've pretty well shown they can play any type of game and win. They're going all the way this year.
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